Steve Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Chris Bradely just said 6-8 looks good and that central Ohio will see the heaviest snow..did not rule out a foot of snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Chris Bradely just said 6-8 looks good and that central Ohio will see the heaviest snow..did not rule out a foot of snow!! lol...he's such a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ILN"s take on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Forgot to post earlier but I'm going 4-7. That's for both Cincy and cbus. Will try to post more later this evening. Might have to wake up for the view at 5am. HRRR trying to hint at lightning LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherzen Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Okay, that's the second mention of possible thundersnow . I'm starting to get excited... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Forgot to post earlier but I'm going 4-7. That's for both Cincy and cbus. Will try to post more later this evening. Might have to wake up for the view at 5am. HRRR trying to hint at lightning LOL I said that earlier. Hrrr was showing some pretty high dbzs heading towards central Ohio. I'm a bit concerned with the latest run with regards to totals on central Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I've been off grid all day, so I'm just catching up. Dilly, I saw this map you posted this morning and I've got say that I completely agree with your call for Indiana. I know that you've since revised the totals a little, but it looks spot on for such an early call. EDIT: Totals may be a little high near the river due to mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Temps warning on track in TN and KY with the GFS forecast. We'll have to keep monitoring through the evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Temps warning on track in TN and KY with the GFS forecast. We'll have to keep monitoring through the evening AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 705 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2015 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 700 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2015 Nothing has changed as far as the complexity of this winter system is concerned. Forecast soundings still waffle around the freezing line at various times and depths. No one particular model is handling the current surface temperatures across the region, so what they have aloft is equally in question. One thing we do know is a low-level jet will crank up across the region the rest of the night, with a limit to how far north it can advance based on the position of an 850mb trough swinging in. Should the limit be the I-64 corridor, we could see a longer period of snow/fzra in that vicinity, with more snow to the north then in the current forecast. Have trended the forecast this way, with higher totals in the north. Will continue to make updates with QPF trends and model temp trends as conditions warrant through the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Temps warning on track in TN and KY with the GFS forecast. We'll have to keep monitoring through the evening Still 12 degrees here in Newark..their saying a high between 33-35..not sure we will get there..I think we stay all snow..6-10 not out of the question!! Someone had mentioned in the other thread about possible thunder..I would have to say,that would be awesome!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 705 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2015 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 700 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2015 Nothing has changed as far as the complexity of this winter system is concerned. Forecast soundings still waffle around the freezing line at various times and depths. No one particular model is handling the current surface temperatures across the region, so what they have aloft is equally in question. One thing we do know is a low-level jet will crank up across the region the rest of the night, with a limit to how far north it can advance based on the position of an 850mb trough swinging in. Should the limit be the I-64 corridor, we could see a longer period of snow/fzra in that vicinity, with more snow to the north then in the current forecast. Have trended the forecast this way, with higher totals in the north. Will continue to make updates with QPF trends and model temp trends as conditions warrant through the night. Ummm, north? Good for us right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Still 12 degrees here in Newark..their saying a high between 33-35..not sure we will get there..I think we stay all snow..6-10 not out of the question!! Someone had mentioned in the other thread about possible thunder..I would have to say,that would be awesome!! I know it seems crazy, but going from single digits to above freezing in 18 hours is very doable. That being said, I think we stay all snow simply because the warm air will have a tough time winning out against high precip rates. As NWS Louisville mentioned, the trough swinging thru will also have it's say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Ummm, north? Good for us right? I believe a little north would be fine.would probably put us in the heaviest stuff for sure!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 999mb surface low now in nw TX panhandle per SPC meso page. This seems a bit stronger than forecast by the 18z NAM. From storm thread. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Ummm, north? Good for us right? well I think what they're saying is less mixing in their northern zones than they originally anticipated....if I read that right. So yes good for us too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 From storm thread. Thoughts? I saw many model runs in the last day or 2 showing 997, 998mb for the low strength in TX. Doesn't seem out of line. It weakens drastically as it pulls out into northern AR, at that point should be down to 1005 - 1007mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Guys, I know I'm from Kentucky, but I don't want to be bashed in the main storm thread. I know temperatures at my house have been running three to four degrees colder than what the model have progging all day. We're only at 21 right now, we should be in the mid 20's and the NAM and GFS have a TON of dynamic cooling. My guess is that this is a Northern Kentucky, Southern Indiana and Ohio special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Nowcasting here, but the precip at Paducah and Evansville STARTED OUT AS FREEZING RAIN! This isnt good as I would have expected those locations to have 6-8 hours of heavy snow before changing over!!! Mid level warming is apparently winning out much quicker than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Owensboro KY has snow reported currently but there is a report of 0.10" of freezing rain near there. The radar looks quite convective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Nowcasting here, but the precip at Paducah and Evansville STARTED OUT AS FREEZING RAIN! This isnt good as I would have expected those locations to have 6-8 hours of heavy snow before changing over!!! Mid level warming is apparently winning out much quicker than expected. They weren't expected to have much snow. In fact, they weren't even under a WSW until a few hours ago. The storm system is proving to be colder than expected according to most meteorgologists here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 0z 4k nam cuts totals to 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 0z 4k nam cuts totals to 3-4"Hmmm, not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Hmmm, not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 nam4km_asnow_us_10.png That map looks way too south to me....way too much accumulation in south central ky relative to anything we have seen progged so far....IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That map looks way too south to me....way too much accumulation in south central ky relative to anything we have seen progged so far....IMHO That's what worries me and what I put in my notes on my weather page. "Barring a last minute shift south" I hope that's not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Lol.... might be time to stop refreshing models, and instead actually watch it unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 That's what worries me and what I put in my notes on my weather page. "Barring a last minute shift south" I hope that's not the case. You worry way to much! This is our storm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 This has counties...only out to 19 hours on e-wall, but already 0.5" of QPF in Franklin County and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Anyone still awake? DT just updated w/ his last call map & mentioned the north trend contuiung. What could he be looking at? NAM went south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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