NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 And ILN takes over the role of Debbie Downer: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ILN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 And ILN takes over the role of Debbie Downer: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ILN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off That's good 4 us b/c they suck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 rgem came in a tad colder and south.... nice hit I think a mixing situation is getting less likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy02 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 And ILN takes over the role of Debbie Downer: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ILN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off That's also based only off the 00Z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 And ILN takes over the role of Debbie Downer: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ILN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Ehh hasn't been updated. Click highlight changed discussion and it says nothing different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yea NWS is sucking and not buying! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 And ILN takes over the role of Debbie Downer: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ILN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off They're playing it cautiously, which is not a bad way to go. However, I think the afternoon forecast will change if the models continue the way they've gone today so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 And ILN takes over the role of Debbie Downer: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ILN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off the discussion that talks about models further north is from earlier. Clearly things are trending differently this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That's good 4 us b/c they suck! Can I get an, Amen? "AMEN" LMAO at that reply. So true--- embarrassingly so true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 rgem came in a tad colder and south.... nice hit I think a mixing situation is getting less likely I'm only out to 24, but seems like totals will be half of the nam in central ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 the discussion that talks about models further north is from earlier. Clearly things are trending differently this afternoon The thing that caught my eye was they completely dismissed the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Can I get an, Amen? "AMEN" LMAO at that reply. So true--- embarrassingly so true. Sorry, but 2 many times did they hoist warnings 4 us when models clearly were showing rain. Can't stand ILN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 the discussion that talks about models further north is from earlier. Clearly things are trending differently this afternoon My feeling on what they'll do this afternoon: Expand the warnings north 1 or 2 counties, increase snowfall totals to 4"-8", but still mention a possible changeover at some point Saturday, which will still potentially keep totals on the lower side along and south of 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm only out to 24, but seems like totals will be half of the nam in central ohio. Chicago posted a map in the other thread....looks sweet. It's also colder and the low is a bit southeast and weaker compared to 06z. Looks like around .9 for franklin. Awesome trend considering the two models most likely to pick up a warm trend (nam and rgem) have come in colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Sorry, but 2 many times did they hoist warnings 4 us when models clearly were showing rain. Can't stand ILN. Yeah, they've been pretty bad in recent years. Missed a lot of storms that were pretty obviously not going to go the way they forecast. And then with the cold forecast last night... forecasting 15-20 below for a city that has seen those temperatures only a handful of times (and typically with either a stronger high directly overhead or deep snowcover) was just stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 My feeling on what they'll do this afternoon: Expand the warnings north 1 or 2 counties, increase snowfall totals to 4"-8", but still mention a possible changeover at some point Saturday, which will still potentially keep totals on the lower side along and south of 70. depends on gfs....they'll hug it more than any other. But I think an upgrade to a warning is looking pretty likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah, they've been pretty bad in recent years. Missed a lot of storms that were pretty obviously not going to go the way they forecast. And then with the cold forecast last night... forecasting 15-20 below for a city that has seen those temperatures only a handful of times (and typically with either a stronger high directly overhead or deep snowcover) was just stupid. I think what hurt us with not getting double digit subzero was lack of deep snow cover. Yes, the ground is covered but there's a big difference between 2" vs. something deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Chicago posted a map in the other thread....looks sweet. It's also colder and the low is a bit southeast and weaker compared to 06z. Looks like around .9 for franklin. Awesome trend considering the two models most likely to pick up a warm trend (nam and rgem) have come in colder That was the 12z NAM map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That was the 12z NAM map. oops my bad... but trust me...good trend on the rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think what hurt us with not getting double digit subzero was lack of deep snow cover. Yes, the ground is covered but there's a big difference between 2" vs. something deep. Yep, but that's the point. The conditions just didn't support that forecast, no matter how cold 850s were. Consider that they mentioned on their FB page yesterday that they had sampled a record cold 850, the coldest since 2/17/1958. The low on 2/17/1958? -3 So of course they forecast up to 20 below. Speaking of cold, through yesterday, this month's mean stands at 21.7. If it ended today it would be the 6th coldest February and tied for the 18th coldest month ever. That mean will easily fall through the rest of the month. We're just 5.1 degrees warmer than 1978, and have been falling at the rate of about 1 degree per day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 oops my bad... but trust me...good trend on the rgem it's subtle but in the right direction.... 00z had a 1011 low over Mansfield at 48 hrs..... 12z has a 1012 low over Chillicothe. Tiny bit weaker and south....which is what we want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Mike Ryan today @ 14:53 WITH REGARDS TO THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM...12Z DATA STARTINGTO ARRIVE. PLANS HERE AT NWS INDY ARE TO MAKE ANY DECISIONS ONADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW/PRECIP TOTALS AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS TOHEADLINES BY EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE BULK OF THE NEW DATA IS IN.EARLY INVESTIGATION HOWEVER DOES SUGGEST SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BEIN ORDER. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The cold during these types of setups (Arctic high nearby and snow cover of varying degree) will cause great variability. There were several places near Cleveland in rural areas that were in the 20 to 30 below mark. In fact an unoffical -39 was recorded at Rome, Ohio. Central Michigan had numerous -30's or lower. Valleys and lack of wind...plus that deeper snow cover worked magic. Last night was truly amazing temperature wise for so late in the season. I believe the best ways for metro cities to really get cold are deep snow cover and exceptionally low -850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 it's subtle but in the right direction.... 00z had a 1011 low over Mansfield at 48 hrs..... 12z has a 1012 low over Chillicothe. Tiny bit weaker and south....which is what we wantedit: 8-10" across i70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The cold during these types of setups (Arctic high nearby and snow cover of varying degree) will cause great variability. There were several places near Cleveland in rural areas that were in the 20 to 30 below mark. In fact an unoffical -39 was recorded at Rome, Ohio. Central Michigan had numerous -30's or lower. Valleys and lack of wind...plus that deeper snow cover worked magic. Last night was truly amazing temperature wise for so late in the season. I believe the best ways for metro cities to really get cold are deep snow cover and exceptionally low -850's. -39 would tie the state all-time record if verified. For reference, in 1994 the lowest official was -37, but that was a far more powerful overall outbreak. Whole sections of the state were 20-35 below rather than isolated locations. I lived in Bellefontaine at that time and it reached -35 there. Never experienced such cold before or since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 looks like gfs held serve.... maybe a tad drier?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy02 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The thing that caught my eye was they completely dismissed the 12z NAM They didn't dismiss it. That update, even though it says 9:53 am, is still from their overnight discussion. They haven't posted a discussion that factors in the 6z or 12z data yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Some local media still going with 3-5 with a change to rain. ..hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 -39 would tie the state all-time record if verified. For reference, in 1994 the lowest official was -37, but that was a far more powerful overall outbreak. Whole sections of the state were 20-35 below rather than isolated locations. I lived in Bellefontaine at that time and it reached -35 there. Never experienced such cold before or since. Seems ive heard the Rome reports are a little off usually,but still it was down right cold last night! My area hit -23, and that looks to have been pretty common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Some local media still going with 3-5 with a change to rain. ..hmmm nothing matters until later this afternoon....those are all forecasts made early this morning based on 00z data.... relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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