OHweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The 6z NAM for PKB is a THING OF BEAUTY. Hours of strong omega, peaking at -50 ub/s at about 600mb for a time! Decent lift in the dendrite growth zone here but a near freezing layer up to 850mb would probably result in large, wet flakes pouring down if that verified. I'm still worried about changeover too quickly here to get over 6", but there's some upside for whoever is sitting just north of the rain/snow line. Very strong low to mid-level jet and decent upper jet support will likely mean heavy/potentially convective precip for several hours for southern and into central Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 not to sound like a , but I think I read here that since the upgrade the gfs has had a warm bias."You serious Clark?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10105670578711725&set=p.10105670578711725&type=1&theater...Iwill take this map for $1,000 Alex..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The 12Z NAM looks colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10105670578711725&set=p.10105670578711725&type=1&theater...Iwill take this map for $1,000 Alex..lol Led to a dead link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10105670578711725&set=p.10105670578711725&type=1&theater...Iwill take this map for $1,000 Alex..lol Link doesn't work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Seeing some of the models of late and the mean of around 11 inches..do you think they will switch our advisory to a Warning..i think they may!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Led to a dead link. It works for me..oh well..bottom line 12+..see if i can fix that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12z NAM is a small nudge south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 About 1.7" QPF all snow here on the 12z NAM. Even if you take a 30% reduction down to 1.2" and apply an 8:1 ratio that's still 9-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 About 1.7" QPF all snow here on the 12z NAM. Even if you take a 30% reduction down to 1.2" and apply an 8:1 ratio that's still 9-10" CMH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 CMH?Athens. It appears to be about 0.8" (eyeballing) for CMH but also a bit colder there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Athens. It appears to be about 0.8" (eyeballing) for CMH but also a bit colder there. That would be a sizeable reduction. It was 1.24" at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Athens. It appears to be about 0.8" (eyeballing) for CMH but also a bit colder there.Yep, I know where u r. Thx 4 CMH #. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That would be a sizeable reduction. It was 1.24" at 6z.We'd still hit that all day!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That would be a sizeable reduction. It was 1.24" at 6z. colder is good... amounts can be tweaked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 colder is good... amounts can be tweaked I want max precip at the coldest possible, dammit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 colder is good... amounts can be tweaked U c my Christmas Vacation quote in response 2 ur GFS comment earlier? Wooo! I couldn't resist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12z NAM is a small nudge south. I agree.....this has big dog written all over it---in relative terms for SW Ohio-- so to clarify, I consider 6+ a big dog down here; we just can't get the real big totals that they get N/NW of here b/c we are usually on the warm side of things in those scenarios. But in my 47 years, typically we get these mixing scenarios which at the last minute the models/mets realize the cold is going to win and it stays on the frozen side. I still think CMH is the place to be from a comfort stand-point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I want max precip at the coldest possible, dammit. U'd hit 8" of all snow all day/night long! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 U'd hit 8" of all snow all day/night long! I think jb is still afraid to dive in this head first... one more empty swimming pool and we may never see him again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 U'd hit 8" of all snow all day/night long! Yes I would, especially after this winter. I still want 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think jb is still afraid to dive in this head first... one more empty swimming pool and we may never see him again Yes, I'm still thinking about all the things that can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 rgem will be the next model to watch as far as mixing potential. It loves warm tongues. If it holds or goes any colder, I think mixing is off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Buckeye-- you may have to change the animated gif in your signature line before too much longer....as the joke may be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Buckeye-- you may have to change the animated gif in your signature line before too much longer....as the joke may be over. I'll wait...if we hit 167% or more I'll gladly change it to something giving wxbell their props Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Spaulding Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Buckeye-- you may have to change the animated gif in your signature line before too much longer....as the joke may be over. Just noticed your screen name and picture of Tony Sands. As a kid, I really enjoyed listening to Tony. He had such a distinctive voice and affable style of presenting the weather. I wish he were still around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Just noticed your screen name and picture of Tony Sands. As a kid, I really enjoyed listening to Tony. He had such a distinctive voice and affable style of presenting the weather. I wish he were still around. He was the master---a true weather wizard without all the technology of today. He never parroted the NWS forecast like you get a lot of today on TV and my best memory of him was he called the Blizzard of 78 (or at least the impacts in Cincy) about a full day before everyone latched on to the outcome. He passed away in '99....but I owe my fascination in weather to him.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NAM is .92 for CMH DAY .77 ZZV 1.15 VTA(newark) .97 CVG 1.39 PMH (Portsmouth) 1.89 UNI (Athens)1.68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NAM is .92 for CMH DAY .77 ZZV 1.15 VTA(newark) .97 Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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