vespasian70 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Playing it safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Odd to see the NAM be all snow and the GFS go over to rain. not to sound like a , but I think I read here that since the upgrade the gfs has had a warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Good to see everyone getting excited. Hopefully we don't see that last minute shift. We don't have much breathing room based on 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Good to see everyone getting excited. Hopefully we don't see that last minute shift. We don't have much breathing room based on 6z. ok put up or shut up... what's the Dilly forecast? I'm going high... I think the changeover is overblown.... 6-8" of cement for CMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Does anyone have the means for CMH or where i can go to look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ok put up or shut up... what's the Dilly forecast? I'm going high... I think the changeover is overblown.... 6-8" of cement for CMH From my page lol. But oddly enough if you look back when you first said you was playing debbie downer and I had to be optimistic I said cmh was getting 8-10" lmao. But looks like we're both going 6-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Does anyone have the means for CMH or where i can go to look? Plumes you have to refresh it... 03z were 8.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Mean at KDAY is 8.1 Lowest at 4.52 Highest at 11.72. There's a nice group between 10 and 12. The rest are spread between the min and 8.5 about evenly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hey dilly I will take that any day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If it wasn't for the fact that we have another outbreak coming next week I probably would have little interest in this storm. In fact if a warm up was coming next week, I wouldn't care what happens. But if we're going to take a fresh plunge into the freezer again, without any relief in the foreseeable future....I want as much snow cover as we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 From my page lol. But oddly enough if you look back when you first said you was playing debbie downer and I had to be optimistic I said cmh was getting 8-10" lmao. But looks like we're both going 6-8I'll take that! My preliminary call here is 4-8" because I'm not convinced we won't see a slight bump north. However, your forecast is certainly possible for down here if we in fact don't see it bump north at all. This will be cement so should be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I do like how the Euro is not as warm as the GFS (correct me if I'm wrong). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'll take that! My preliminary call here is 4-8" because I'm not convinced we won't see a slight bump north. However, your forecast is certainly possible for down here if we in fact don't see it bump north at all. This will be cement so should be fun! Yea i made that up last night. I probably will revise it a little after 12z if they look similar to the 6z runs. They shifted north a bit. But enough to bring the heaviest band north some as well. You'll be safe at 4-8". Can't lose with it Unless 15" falls lol. I think you'll be high end on that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 The mean is around 9 inches..there is only one around 5..and that is the lowest..not bad!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The mean is around 9 inches..there is only one around 5..and that is the lowest..not bad!! use those with caution.... I believe the mean for cmh the day before our scraper was over 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 use those with caution.... I believe the mean for cmh the day before our scraper was over 6" It was, although to be fair it was doing that with like .2" of QPF, which was a good sign to throw the snow amounts on the SREF into a burning dumpster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 use those with caution.... I believe the mean for cmh the day before our scraper was over 6" We have to over perform with one of these don't we..It's time..and time is running out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I do like how the Euro is not as warm as the GFS (correct me if I'm wrong). I haven't dug into the details, but almost all the models try to work in enough warm to changeover tomorrow afternoon....the caveat is most of the precip has fallen by then and the tongue is more of a quick lick then a deep French. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It was, although to be fair it was doing that with like .2" of QPF, which was a good sign to throw the snow amounts on the SREF into a burning dumpster. I'm vested in Athens getting thumped. I texted my daughter she's getting a foot Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 09 mean for cmh up to 11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I haven't dug into the details, but almost all the models try to work in enough warm to changeover tomorrow afternoon....the caveat is most of the precip has fallen by then and the tongue is more of a quick lick then a deep French.LMAO! Buckeye, you should have been a writer! You missed your calling! BTW, let me know if you have a chance to look at temps on Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm vested in Athens getting thumped. I texted my daughter she's getting a foot Saturday Pick your poison with the 9z SREF for PKB...tight clustering between 7.5"-11.5"...two high members of 14-15"...5 low members (due to mixing) with less than 6" (although only 2 under 2.5")...mean of 8.3" (mean QPF over 1.5"). Biggest worry here is mixing. If we can even keep that just to our south I'm impressed with the chances of at least 6" of cement, but that's the question mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What do you guys think of ILN's forecast map? Not kind to Dayton and Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What do you guys think of ILN's forecast map? Not kind to Dayton and Columbus.they're going with a change to mix. We all have to hope that warm air stays south. Or we can stay snow even at 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yup, I thought about that storm as well. I remember the morning before that storm, some of the sr models, like the rgem were trending warmer. NAM was pushing the 850's north of us. Everyone here was jumping off the bridge. You're right, high rates saved us and we ended up with 10" of cement. Southern OH also did well. I'm always skeptical of forecasts that say 'x' amount of snow---->to rain----->back to snow. If we thump in the beginning, but the precip slacks off, then yes, I think that opens in opportunity for a changeover, but if the precip is steady, I'm not so sure. Snow to rain to snow is very rare, as has been mentioned before. We will either stay snow or go over to rain and stay rain through the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm feeling another ILN bust coming... but a positive one for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm feeling another ILN bust coming... but a positive one for a change. Been a long time since you've been optimistic lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 09 mean for cmh up to 11" Only a single member below 5"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Been a long time since you've been optimistic lol. Yes, we'll see if it's the right move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Svrwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I haven't dug into the details, but almost all the models try to work in enough warm to changeover tomorrow afternoon....the caveat is most of the precip has fallen by then and the tongue is more of a quick lick then a deep French. I now have my fellow coworker looking at me, trying to figure out why I was laughing. If you don't follow weather they don't really see the humor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.