buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Solid hit for Ohio. ohio.gif I have a daughter at college in Athens, and a daughter at college in Morgantown......of course I couldn't resist texting them a pic of that and telling them they're both getting a foot of snow Saturday. They probably just rolled their eyes at their nerdy dad...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Re: 00z NAM-- well of course it's a bulleye for southern ohio....30 hours out! This has Buckeye-ville written all over it.....regardless the trend is good. nam will be nam....probably more eye candy than reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 0z GFS looking like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Not as juicy as the NAM but all of Ohio is 3"+ with near 6" along I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 rgem favoring southern OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 The start of this thing is only 24 hrs out..you would think this meets a low end warning!! When will they hoist if they are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I see Chris Bradley is going all snow 3-5" Digging deeper into the gfs and the rgem....they both go over to a short period of rain towards the end. Interesting that the nam is the coldest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I see Chris Bradley is going all snow 3-5" Digging deeper into the gfs and the rgem....they both go over to a short period of rain towards the end. Interesting that the nam is the coldest. CMC tracks the low right through central ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 CMC tracks the low right through central ohio. it's always been like that, so has the ukie and the euro. The reason it's not predominantly rain for us is because the low weakens as it moves northeast and the precip gets here well out ahead of the system. That's why our biggest issue is whether we switch over at the end or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I have to completely take back what I said Wednesday about the north trend. The shortwave is coming in weaker as we get closer, and now the I-70 corridor has a nice buffer zone and I'm in the game down here. I'll have to look things over closer Friday after my classes and there will be full sampling for the 12z Friday runs, but the WAA appears very strong in the low to mid levels. Anyone on the nose of that will see a period of heavy snow. Rain could eventually get pretty far north but not after a good front end dump. As Buckeye said, me completely denouncing a storm a few days out is a pretty good sign for CMH (although I did say I could see enough on the front end for an advisory...thinking someone in central or southern OH could pull off warning amounts now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 So we got slightly more amped CMC, bit less amped GFS, strung out Euro (still strong 850/925 WAA), and cold/weak NAM. Not entirely what you normally see....lol. But hey this looking better. What the models almost all agree on is that warm push from 850mb on down. So I am still expecting a changeover to rain here and perhaps in CMH too. Right now, the way it warms up keeps ice mainly out of the equation. However, still slightly concerned that surface warms slower than 2-5kft levels which could mean a bit of ice. Needs to be watched...IMO a winter storm watch should be issued with the AM forecast package. Accumulating snow appears more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 For south of I-70 this is sort of reminding me of my big CMH bust from last year (when I said 2-4/3-6" and you got 10")...not a strong surface low riding directly over or north of the region and marginal temp profiles. Very heavy precip rates overcame that and you stayed snow for 95% of the storm. Wouldn't surprise me if something similar happens in this storm somewhere in the southern half of Ohio with the models showing marginal surface and 850mb temps but also very heavy precip rates for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm having a hard time believing that the forecasted low in Columbus of 15-20 below zero is going to come close to verifying. It's only -3 at 2am and falling slowly. It would have to plummet very fast between now and dawn to get near that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm having a hard time believing that the forecasted low in Columbus of 15-20 below zero is going to come close to verifying. It's only -3 at 2am and falling slowly. It would have to plummet very fast between now and dawn to get near that. -8° here so far. Supposed to hit -12° by 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm having a hard time believing that the forecasted low in Columbus of 15-20 below zero is going to come close to verifying. It's only -3 at 2am and falling slowly. It would have to plummet very fast between now and dawn to get near that. Same here. -6 now, supposed to be -16! Long way to go. Not that I'm complaining. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm having a hard time believing that the forecasted low in Columbus of 15-20 below zero is going to come close to verifying. It's only -3 at 2am and falling slowly. It would have to plummet very fast between now and dawn to get near that. Not really visible on IR imagery right now, but some high clouds are floating over Athens right now and logic would have it that they've floated over CMH too. 15 to 20 below is always going to be extremely tough to achieve in that urban heat island barring an epic cold setup, although I could've seen -10 tonight...still possible if the skies are clear or do clear soon. -14 here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 For south of I-70 this is sort of reminding me of my big CMH bust from last year (when I said 2-4/3-6" and you got 10")...not a strong surface low riding directly over or north of the region and marginal temp profiles. Very heavy precip rates overcame that and you stayed snow for 95% of the storm. Wouldn't surprise me if something similar happens in this storm somewhere in the southern half of Ohio with the models showing marginal surface and 850mb temps but also very heavy precip rates for a time. Yes, riding the line down here and will have to watch it closely. Hoping 12z runs shed a bit more light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Not really visible on IR imagery right now, but some high clouds are floating over Athens right now and logic would have it that they've floated over CMH too. 15 to 20 below is always going to be extremely tough to achieve in that urban heat island barring an epic cold setup, although I could've seen -10 tonight...still possible if the skies are clear or do clear soon. -14 here right now. That's ILN's forecast, so I assume they saw something I'm not... but then it's ILN, so I'm thinking bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That's ILN's forecast, so I assume they saw something I'm not... but then it's ILN, so I'm thinking bust.That's very gusty for Columbus proper by them. Some outlying areas are -10 to -15 per ASOS/AWOS stations and personal weather stations right now, so depending on clouds that forecast may stuff verify for outlying areas. But yeah too cold for the city itself and a good chunk of Franklin Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Holy crap, the 6Z NAM is diving head first for southern Ohio. It's tossing 12"+ totals out now south/on the i70 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hell showing 6-8 for me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hell showing 6-8 for me lolI'm not jumping that far in overall, for anyone that asks I'm saying 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NWS low balling 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Gotta love alek over in the storm thread saying it has been dead for days. I wonder if it is because we just discuss it over here. If he is referencing the actual storm, it's dead for them, alive for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yea they be crying lol. NWS playing the warm air card. Keeping totals low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 For south of I-70 this is sort of reminding me of my big CMH bust from last year (when I said 2-4/3-6" and you got 10")...not a strong surface low riding directly over or north of the region and marginal temp profiles. Very heavy precip rates overcame that and you stayed snow for 95% of the storm. Wouldn't surprise me if something similar happens in this storm somewhere in the southern half of Ohio with the models showing marginal surface and 850mb temps but also very heavy precip rates for a time. Yup, I thought about that storm as well. I remember the morning before that storm, some of the sr models, like the rgem were trending warmer. NAM was pushing the 850's north of us. Everyone here was jumping off the bridge. You're right, high rates saved us and we ended up with 10" of cement. Southern OH also did well. I'm always skeptical of forecasts that say 'x' amount of snow---->to rain----->back to snow. If we thump in the beginning, but the precip slacks off, then yes, I think that opens in opportunity for a changeover, but if the precip is steady, I'm not so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NWS playing the warm air card. Keeping totals low. Probably a wise move at this point. That WTOD is unrelenting. Edit: However it is encouraging to see the NAM not changing CMH over to rain. Another edit: Yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Probably a wise move at this point. That WTOD is unrelenting. Edit: However it is encouraging to see the NAM not changing CMH over to rain. Another edit: Yet. Odd to see the NAM be all snow and the GFS go over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yes I like the trend of keeping CMH snow. That would benefit where I'm sitting. Hoping for first 6 inch mark this winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Odd to see the NAM be all snow and the GFS go over to rain. I thought the same thing. However I wouldn't want it the other way around. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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