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Let's talk Winter!


Steve

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Hopefully we can trend back north a bit otherwise just be another run of the mill 2-4"

 

I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a bump north tonight on the models.  I know that increases our chances of some taint, (or at least modeled taint), but I'll roll the dice on bringing in a bunch of moisture as snow and letting things go from there, even if it's being chased with warm air.

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I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a bump north tonight on the models.  I know that increases our chances of some taint, (or at least modeled taint), but I'll roll the dice on bringing in a bunch of moisture as snow and letting things go from there, even if it's being chased with warm air.

 

This. I'd rather take my chances at getting close to a mix or even flipping to hit warning criteria before I'd take a dull 2".

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1 other TV met said this weekend needs to be watched closely.....mix line in the evening models (that they show) barely makes it north of US 35 and only for a brief blip.....

 

NBC Affiliate mentioned his thinking was the cold may win the battle at the River...my experience watching these guys is always warm wins....over and over again, and they are almost always right. That's not the tune they were singing tonight.

 

I guess we are an hour  away from the 00z's beginning their roll.......12z is lock and load time.... until then it's roller coaster time.

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1 other TV met said this weekend needs to be watched closely.....mix line in the evening models (that they show) barely makes it north of US 35 and only for a brief blip.....

 

NBC Affiliate mentioned his thinking was the cold may win the battle at the River...my experience watching these guys is always warm wins....over and over again, and they are almost always right. That's not the tune they were singing tonight.

 

I guess we are an hour  away from the 00z's beginning their roll.......12z is lock and load time.... until then it's roller coaster time.

 

whenever you have a situation where moisture arrives several hours before the warm air, it becomes harder for the atmosphere to warm and switch over, especially if the precip is steady.    That's why snow to rain situations either occur relatively soon after the precip starts or the switch doesn't happen until the very end when the precip lightens and you end up with a switchover to drizzle. 

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yea and this thing is a moisture bomb. Latest SREF mean now has a 2.5"qpf closed countour over KY and brings the 1" qpf line about 25 miles south of I-70

 

 

 

Which run was that?

 

The 21z sref mean has a 3" inch+ zone showing up in KY just south of the Indiana line.. 

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