vespasian70 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Start of a trend or 18z being 18z? Who knows? The models have been awful this far out. But the safe bet is to ride the ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 BTW, to those who think it's unbelievable to go from below zero to 40s in 24 hours....here are instances where in 24 hours the low and high went from below zero to at least 35. Bold are the best examples. January 12-13, 1881 12th Low: -3 13th High 42 January 29-30, 1885 29th Low: -1 30th High: 40 January 18-19, 1887 18th Low: -1 19th High: 39 February 3-4, 1898 3rd Low: -5 4th High: 39 February 14-15, 1899 14th Low: -5 15th High: 36 December 21-22, 1901 21st Low: -7 22nd High: 37 January 10-11, 1910 10th Low: -3 11th High: 35 January 16-17, 1912 16th Low: -1 17th High: 40 February 13-14, 1912 13th Low: -1 14th High: 40 February 13-14, 1917 13th Low: -1 14th High: 38 February 5-6, 1918 5th Low: -10 6th High: 41 January 21-22, 1924 21st Low: -4 22nd High: 36 January 29-30, 1926 29th Low: -5 30th High: 50 December 21-22, 1942 21st Low: -2 22nd High: 39 January 19-20, 1948 19th Low: -1 20th High: 39 December 28-29, 1950 28th Low: -10 29th High: 40 January 31-February 1, 1955 31st Low: -5 1st High: 41 January 18-19, 1959 18th Low: -2 19th High: 37 February 5-6, 1965 5th Low: -1 6th High: 51 February 10-11, 1971 10th Low: -1 11th High: 41 January 16-17, 1972 16th Low: -12 17th High: 38 February 2-3, 1977 2nd Low: -4 3rd High: 35 February 8-9, 1977 8th Low: -13 9th High: 39 January 23-24, 1978 23rd Low: -7 24th High: 35 February 20-21, 1979 20th Low: -2 21st High: 42 January 27-28, 1982 27th Low: -4 28th High: 41 January 22-23, 1984 22nd Low: -3 23rd High: 38 January 16-17, 1992 16th Low: -3 17th High: 36 January 27-28, 2003 27th Low: -5 28th High: 35 February 12-13, 2014 12th Low: -3 13th High: 40 There are MANY other examples of low single digits to 0 followed by highs above 40. So yeah... it can happen, though there are few examples of going from -10 or greater to 40 or above the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 BTW, to those who think it's unbelievable to go from below zero to 40s in 24 hours....here are instances where in 24 hours the low and high went from below zero to at least 35. Bold are the best examples. January 12-13, 1881 12th Low: -3 13th High 42 January 29-30, 1885 29th Low: -1 30th High: 40 January 18-19, 1887 18th Low: -1 19th High: 39 February 3-4, 1898 3rd Low: -5 4th High: 39 February 14-15, 1899 14th Low: -5 15th High: 36 December 21-22, 1901 21st Low: -7 22nd High: 37 January 10-11, 1910 10th Low: -3 11th High: 35 January 16-17, 1912 16th Low: -1 17th High: 40 February 13-14, 1912 13th Low: -1 14th High: 40 February 13-14, 1917 13th Low: -1 14th High: 38 February 5-6, 1918 5th Low: -10 6th High: 41 January 21-22, 1924 21st Low: -4 22nd High: 36 January 29-30, 1926 29th Low: -5 30th High: 50 December 21-22, 1942 21st Low: -2 22nd High: 39 January 19-20, 1948 19th Low: -1 20th High: 39 December 28-29, 1950 28th Low: -10 29th High: 40 January 31-February 1, 1955 31st Low: -5 1st High: 41 January 18-19, 1959 18th Low: -2 19th High: 37 February 5-6, 1965 5th Low: -1 6th High: 51 February 10-11, 1971 10th Low: -1 11th High: 41 January 16-17, 1972 16th Low: -12 17th High: 38 February 2-3, 1977 2nd Low: -4 3rd High: 35 February 8-9, 1977 8th Low: -13 9th High: 39 January 23-24, 1978 23rd Low: -7 24th High: 35 February 20-21, 1979 20th Low: -2 21st High: 42 January 27-28, 1982 27th Low: -4 28th High: 41 January 22-23, 1984 22nd Low: -3 23rd High: 38 January 16-17, 1992 16th Low: -3 17th High: 36 January 27-28, 2003 27th Low: -5 28th High: 35 February 12-13, 2014 12th Low: -3 13th High: 40 There are MANY other examples of low single digits to 0 followed by highs above 40. So yeah... it can happen, though there are few examples of going from -10 or greater to 40 or above the next day. agree, that's an argument I stopped buying a long time ago. Takes nothing to scour out cold air on an approaching warm tongue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Who knows? The models have been awful this far out. But the safe bet is to ride the ukie. that's our only hope...that this thing strings out more. It's possible but I'd be leery of jumping on an 18z trend. You guys remember the gfs lost the last storm at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Jb, that's kinda the point I was making. It's not that I don't buy it but I'd like to see how many times it's been 20 below to raise back to 40. I doubt there's a ton of times we've went 20 below let alone back to 40 the next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 BTW, to those who think it's unbelievable to go from below zero to 40s in 24 hours....here are instances where in 24 hours the low and high went from below zero to at least 35. Bold are the best examples. January 12-13, 1881 12th Low: -3 13th High 42 January 29-30, 1885 29th Low: -1 30th High: 40 January 18-19, 1887 18th Low: -1 19th High: 39 February 3-4, 1898 3rd Low: -5 4th High: 39 February 14-15, 1899 14th Low: -5 15th High: 36 December 21-22, 1901 21st Low: -7 22nd High: 37 January 10-11, 1910 10th Low: -3 11th High: 35 January 16-17, 1912 16th Low: -1 17th High: 40 February 13-14, 1912 13th Low: -1 14th High: 40 February 13-14, 1917 13th Low: -1 14th High: 38 February 5-6, 1918 5th Low: -10 6th High: 41 January 21-22, 1924 21st Low: -4 22nd High: 36 January 29-30, 1926 29th Low: -5 30th High: 50 December 21-22, 1942 21st Low: -2 22nd High: 39 January 19-20, 1948 19th Low: -1 20th High: 39 December 28-29, 1950 28th Low: -10 29th High: 40 January 31-February 1, 1955 31st Low: -5 1st High: 41 January 18-19, 1959 18th Low: -2 19th High: 37 February 5-6, 1965 5th Low: -1 6th High: 51 February 10-11, 1971 10th Low: -1 11th High: 41 January 16-17, 1972 16th Low: -12 17th High: 38 February 2-3, 1977 2nd Low: -4 3rd High: 35 February 8-9, 1977 8th Low: -13 9th High: 39 January 23-24, 1978 23rd Low: -7 24th High: 35 February 20-21, 1979 20th Low: -2 21st High: 42 January 27-28, 1982 27th Low: -4 28th High: 41 January 22-23, 1984 22nd Low: -3 23rd High: 38 January 16-17, 1992 16th Low: -3 17th High: 36 January 27-28, 2003 27th Low: -5 28th High: 35 February 12-13, 2014 12th Low: -3 13th High: 40 There are MANY other examples of low single digits to 0 followed by highs above 40. So yeah... it can happen, though there are few examples of going from -10 or greater to 40 or above the next day. How many of these involved a deep snowpack though like KY/southern OH has right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Jb, that's kinda the point I was making. It's not that I don't buy it but I'd like to see how many times it's been 20 below to raise back to 40. I doubt there's a ton of times we've went 20 below let alone back to 40 the next day For Columbus, that's never happened. For other areas, I don't know. The examples I gave changed from between 35-55 degrees in 24 hours, so pretty significant changes regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 In regards to the upcoming cold, I can see Newark dropping to -20 or lower Thursday night/Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 How many of these involved a deep snowpack though like KY/southern OH has right now? Hard to say, but snowpack just isn't going to keep a storm from coming north that wants to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I was just looking at the ggem ensembles from 12z. wow, the OP was an outlier with that amped system. VAST majority of ens members were well southeast and much weaker. Several even appear to be non-events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I was just looking at the ggem ensembles from 12z. wow, the OP was an outlier with that amped system. VAST majority of ens members were well southeast and much weaker. Several even appear to be non-events.They'd never post that in the storm thread! I say we keep this thread as our storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 They'd never post that in the storm thread! I say we keep this thread as our storm thread. I get them off wxbell, I would have posted but it would have been hard to read without blowing them up pretty big. But yea, I don't think a wound up storm to Ohio is a given by any means..... this could so easily string out into nothing or a weaker low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 They'd never post that in the storm thread! I say we keep this thread as our storm thread. I agree 100% get tired of being treated as the forum idoits!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I agree 100% get tired of being treated as the forum idoits!! LC sticking to that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I see OHweather just scored a snow day (cold day).... Ohio Univ closed tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherzen Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'm pretty sure Athens has also had more snow this week than I saw during my entire 4 years there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Already down to 9 degrees here. If we clear off we may go past -10 by morning. Brutal stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Sitting at 7 real feel -3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Those of you sweating wagons north this weekend can breath a bit more easily now. Looking like a less amped solution may be the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 06Z NAM comes in much further south than the 00Z. A canary in the coal mine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 ILN's take on this weekend: THE KEY IS WITH HEAVIER PCPN SAT AFTN/EVE...AND IF FASTER/FLATTER/COLDER SOLNPREVAILS WE MAY BE DEALING WITH MORE OF AN ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENTNORTH OF I-70. IF SYSTEM IS A LITTLE MORE WOUND UP /ECMWF/ IT SEEMSPRETTY CERTAIN THAT ALL RAIN MAKES IT WELL INTO AND THROUGH THEFORECAST AREA. FOR RIGHT NOW...HEAVY BLENDING OF WPC AND ECMWFSOLUTIONS STARTS THE AREA OUT IN LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY MORNING...ANDKEEPING RAIN/SNOW IN THE PICTURE LONGER INTO SATURDAY...THEN APERIOD OF ALL RAIN SAT EVE BEFORE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. THISSYSTEM NEEDS WATCHED CLOSELY IF A COLDER/FLATTER/FASTER SOLUTIONBECOMES PREFERRED THAT GOOD SNOW ACCUMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ESPNORTHERN 1/2 OF FORECAST AREA AND ICY/WINTRY MIX IN THE SOUTH. MANYPOSSIBILITIES HERE...AND TODAY/S CYCLE OF GUIDANCE DID LITTLE TODIMINISH THE UNCERTAINTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro was further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro was further south. So, perhaps the amped up runs yesterday were a blip? It will be interesting to see what the ukie does today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 FWIW 06z GFS was much further south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z nam looks like it's going to continue the trend of south and colder.... crazy turnaround in 24 hours. Let's see if it's a solid trend or models bounce back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 we might get whiffed on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This storm has the look of a pouring rain storm, or a whiff storm. Cold sector qpf seems quite sparse with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This storm has the look of a pouring rain storm, or a whiff storm. Cold sector qpf seems quite sparse with this one. the sweet spot for this storm is whoever is directly in it's path and getting a front end thump changing to drizzle at the end. NAM crushes central KY to DC before they warm, (but by then most of precip has ended) Hopefully the nam is overdoing the suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 nam: .18 qpf 1-2" event yesterday at this time I wrote this off as a rainer...... you can't make this stuff up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Something for us Ohioans to hang on to -- Ripped from the NE thread. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1046 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015 VALID 12Z SAT FEB 21 2015 - 12Z WED FEB 25 2015 RELIED ON THE FASTER, FLATTER GUIDANCE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, WITH DEFERENCE TO THE PRIMACY OF COLD AIR. MUCH AS THE MODELS THIS TIME LAST WEEK WERE WONT TO LIFT THE CURTAIN OF ARCTIC AIR IN THE EAST TO ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO PASS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE TIME FRAME VERIFYING YESTERDAY AND TODAY--WITH A FLATTER, COLDER WAVE THE REALITY--BELIEVE THAT A SIMILAR ISSUE EXISTS FOR THE WAVE CROSSING THE EAST THIS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LEANED ON THE MSC MEAN--CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN--AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE FOR THE NATION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A TEMPORARY DIP IN THE JET OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL HELP TO URGE THE CLOSED LOW WEST OF BAJA NORTHWARD--THE EFFECTS OF BOTH SYSTEMS PRODUCING PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ONCE THE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWEST ROCKETS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER OVERRUNNING EVENT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH, WITH MORE SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND ENTIRE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS. CISCO Bump. Kudos to Cisco if todays model trends are correct. May end up with no more than a few flurries at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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