snowlover2 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Getting awesome snow squalls now. Gotta love going from clear to whiteout every 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Something for us Ohioans to hang on to -- Ripped from the NE thread. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1046 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015VALID 12Z SAT FEB 21 2015 - 12Z WED FEB 25 2015RELIED ON THE FASTER, FLATTER GUIDANCE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, WITH DEFERENCE TO THE PRIMACY OF COLD AIR. MUCH AS THE MODELS THIS TIME LAST WEEKWERE WONT TO LIFT THE CURTAIN OF ARCTIC AIR IN THE EAST TO ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO PASS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE TIME FRAME VERIFYING YESTERDAY AND TODAY--WITH A FLATTER, COLDER WAVE THEREALITY--BELIEVE THAT A SIMILAR ISSUE EXISTS FOR THE WAVE CROSSING THE EAST THIS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LEANED ON THE MSC MEAN--CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN--AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE FOR THE NATIONTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A TEMPORARY DIP IN THE JET OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL HELP TO URGE THE CLOSED LOW WEST OF BAJA NORTHWARD--THE EFFECTS OF BOTH SYSTEMS PRODUCING PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ONCE THE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWEST ROCKETS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER OVERRUNNING EVENT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATIONIS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH, WITH MORE SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND ENTIRE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS.CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 As buckeye stated in the other thread. Euro has us getting 8-12" before being dryslotted. Best we can hope for aside a south shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Something for us Ohioans to hang on to -- Ripped from the NE thread. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1046 AM EST CISCO Same as I said earlier. Seems unlikely to go from -20 to in the 40's in 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 As buckeye stated in the other thread. Euro has us getting 8-12" before being dryslotted. Best we can hope for aside a south shift. Lot of taint in that 8-12, but you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Same as I said earlier. Seems unlikely to go from -20 to in the 40's in 24 hours I agree. I cannot believe that the sonofabi**h will track right into that PV sitting over Hudson Bay...no way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The Hudson vortex is west of here. It may sample even further west in future runs. Even if the energy doesn't take hold and churn into a major storm torching us, there will be precip issues. Just the nature of the beast. You're right. My bad! I'm An idiot. Stupid, stupid, stupid pondo1000...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The WxBell snow maps are so bad. This would struggle to stay all snow on the front end (this is CMH text data), but we'll give heavy precip rates the benefit of the doubt and say it's 3-5", plus maybe 1" more on the backside. And this is, other than the NAVGEM, the farthest south model. There is no blocking, -20F from radiational cooling doesn't mean anything as soon as a 7MPH breeze kicks in. I'm not saying we'll be shut out but I think the WxBell Euro snow maps are giving people false hope for a bigger storm that in all likelihood won't happen. The models have been under-estimating the intensity of Pacific shortwaves all winter and every one has been playing catchup with every storm until the last minute. With no blocking this should be no different IMO. I'm rarely a "pessimist" so far out but a lot needs to go different with this one. It could be a winter weather advisory for I-70 which is better than nothing but I wouldn't expect much more than a few inches, best case. SAT 12Z 21-FEB -3.8 -2.9 1022 88 74 0.03 552 534 SAT 18Z 21-FEB 0.8 -0.7 1020 93 97 0.07 556 540 SUN 00Z 22-FEB 1.1 -1.3 1017 99 100 0.46 555 542 SUN 06Z 22-FEB 2.8 0.0 1012 88 100 0.51 556 546 SUN 12Z 22-FEB 6.2 3.1 1006 87 90 0.34 553 548 SUN 18Z 22-FEB -0.4 -4.2 1017 81 45 0.13 548 535 MON 00Z 23-FEB -2.8 -7.4 1025 81 11 0.00 549 530 MON 06Z 23-FEB -8.6 -10.6 1029 75 24 0.00 547 524 MON 12Z 23-FEB -15.2 -16.3 1032 77 77 0.00 545 520 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The WxBell snow maps are so bad. This would struggle to stay all snow on the front end (this is CMH text data), but we'll give heavy precip rates the benefit of the doubt and say it's 3-5", plus maybe 1" more on the backside. And this is, other than the NAVGEM, the farthest south model. There is no blocking, -20F from radiational cooling doesn't mean anything as soon as a 7MPH breeze kicks in. I'm not saying we'll be shut out but I think the WxBell Euro snow maps are giving people false hope for a bigger storm that in all likelihood won't happen. The models have been under-estimating the intensity of Pacific shortwaves all winter and every one has been playing catchup with every storm until the last minute. With no blocking this should be no different IMO. I'm rarely a "pessimist" so far out but a lot needs to go different with this one. It could be a winter weather advisory for I-70 which is better than nothing but I wouldn't expect much more than a few inches, best case. SAT 12Z 21-FEB -3.8 -2.9 1022 88 74 0.03 552 534 SAT 18Z 21-FEB 0.8 -0.7 1020 93 97 0.07 556 540 SUN 00Z 22-FEB 1.1 -1.3 1017 99 100 0.46 555 542 SUN 06Z 22-FEB 2.8 0.0 1012 88 100 0.51 556 546 SUN 12Z 22-FEB 6.2 3.1 1006 87 90 0.34 553 548 SUN 18Z 22-FEB -0.4 -4.2 1017 81 45 0.13 548 535 MON 00Z 23-FEB -2.8 -7.4 1025 81 11 0.00 549 530 MON 06Z 23-FEB -8.6 -10.6 1029 75 24 0.00 547 524 MON 12Z 23-FEB -15.2 -16.3 1032 77 77 0.00 545 520 thank you!!!!! time to dust off the snowblower. The only thing the last two storms were missing was OHweather telling us we weren't getting sh*t! I'm mess'n with you Look, I have no false hope from wxbell maps and yes this looks like north trend all the way. BUT, why is everyone commenting on the models consistently under estimating the pac shortwaves when clearly that wasn't an issue with this last storm. GFS early on had us in the jackpot with that one, as did some other models....seems there was an OVERestimation, not an underestimation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 thank you!!!!! time to dust off the snowblower. The only thing the last two storms were missing was OHweather telling us we weren't getting sh*t! I'm mess'n with you Look, I have no false hope from wxbell maps and yes this looks like north trend all the way. BUT, why is everyone commenting on the models consistently under estimating the pac shortwaves when clearly that wasn't an issue with this last storm. GFS early on had us in the jackpot with that one, as did some other models....seems there was an OVERestimation, not an underestimation. HeheBy this point with the last storm the models were burying it south and the NWS was gearing up to issue watches all the way to Birmingham. It was a significant north trend inside of two days due to the shortwave coming in stronger. February first is another example of the shortwave coming in much stronger once it got sampled. So that's why I said that about Pac shortwaves. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 So, yeah, the 15Z SREF.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 So, yeah, the 15Z SREF.... you do know the nam at some point will have a Minneapolis cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Bright side... At least we don't have to worry about being on the mix line again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 the nam sucks for us verbatim, but it's interesting that it hasn't been amping the hell out of this thing. In fact trend-looping the 500h maps on amwx between 12z and 18z and the flow is definitely a bit flatter and more progressive and the low weaker. I expect the nam to be all over the northern most amped solution....like the canary in the coal mine. We'll see. just say'n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 FWIW, the 18Z NAM is further south and colder than the 12Z GFS. Still, all rain once the heavy stuff moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Bright side... At least we don't have to worry about being on the mix line again. I'm over it. Just having fun now and trying to will a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm over it. Just having fun now and trying to will a miracle. Like hell you are. You're to be playing the debbie downer rule. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Like hell you are. You're to be playing the debbie downer rule. Lol. I realized that's no fun, no one gets pissed at you when you play Debbie downer. I can ruffle more feathers playing optimistic ollie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 FWIW, the 18Z NAM is further south and colder than the 12Z GFS. Still, all rain once the heavy stuff moves in. Would not be surprized to see the 0z runs head in this direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 the nam sucks for us verbatim, but it's interesting that it hasn't been amping the hell out of this thing. In fact trend-looping the 500h maps on amwx between 12z and 18z and the flow is definitely a bit flatter and more progressive and the low weaker. I expect the nam to be all over the northern most amped solution....like the canary in the coal mine. We'll see. just say'n I think that would've been more of a red flag in previous winters, but there have been times this winter where the NAM has been too far southeast at this range and then adjusted north. We're kinda in the same boat on this one...hoping for the same trend. I wish I could be more optimistic about the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I realized that's no fun, no one gets pissed at you when you play Debbie downer. I can ruffle more feathers playing optimistic ollie Yep, see Stebo's response to you. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yep, see Stebo's response to you. :-) Buckeyes reply over there examplifies exactly why I don't use the storm thread. As said before there needs to be 2 subforums. One for the ohio valley and one for the great lakes. The reason is because in the storm threads if you say something isn't north then you're an idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Buckeyes reply over there examplifies exactly why I don't use the storm thread. As said before there needs to be 2 subforums. One for the ohio valley and one for the great lakes. The reason is because in the storm threads if you say something isn't north then you're an idiot. To be fair, most of those guys are good guys. Just some are...well....different. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 actually I was aiming more at Angry...but oh well lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Buckeyes reply over there examplifies exactly why I don't use the storm thread. As said before there needs to be 2 subforums. One for the ohio valley and one for the great lakes. The reason is because in the storm threads if you say something isn't north then you're an idiot.Agtee 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 To be fair, most of those guys are good guys. Just some are...well....different. :-) Didn't say they wasnt. Just makes it about impossible to post if you're not in the northern sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 To be fair, most of those guys are good guys. Just some are...well....different. :-) I agree....but it's still ridiculous to have such a massive geographic region all discussing a single storm system. If I want to post a model showing something favorable for us, do I really need the usuals commentating against it? Also we're outnumbered like 4 to 1 over there....which makes it even more pleasant. Now, if a storm is verifying and it's an Obs thread, I'm all for everyone posting in it. That was the point Hoosier was making about posting in the main thread earlier in the week.... that's why I didn't have a problem with it, although probably could have pinned a new obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Buckeyes reply over there examplifies exactly why I don't use the storm thread. As said before there needs to be 2 subforums. One for the ohio valley and one for the great lakes. The reason is because in the storm threads if you say something isn't north then you're an idiot. Someone is always going to be on the wrong side of the line no matter how small you chop it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 18z gfs went weaker with the low....more bully with that HP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 18z gfs went weaker with the low....more bully with that HPStart of a trend or 18z being 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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