dilly84 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What's frustrating is if you look at just the 27hour map, it looks like we're about to get clocked. But it just squirts off to the east. So very close. Yep. And I don't understand it. I cant understand what's stopping this from going north. There's no strong blocking that's preventing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM is still saying FU wrt snow for us. Basically 1" along I-70. Considering it's the nam, that red flag is hoisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yea I don't know why it keeps flattening out as it gets close to I-70. As u said nothing stopping it from moving north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 All I can think of is the dry airmass. If all the models managed to miss and it doesnt turn east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yep. And I don't understand it. I cant understand what's stopping this from going north. There's no strong blocking that's preventing it. no strong blocking can also allow it to escape easier as well. That's the biggest issue. Right about the time the trough starts sharpening, there's nothing to slow it down and let it take on a neg tilt....basically the storm escapes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 no strong blocking can also allow it to escape easier as well. That's the biggest issue. Right about the time the trough starts sharpening, there's nothing to slow it down and let it take on a neg tilt....basically the storm escapes.still went out on a limb and posted a status to my followers in facebook. Basically the way it trended is cause for concern. We know nws will issue no warning, so I at least wanted a heads up that there is a chance, albeit small, that there is the potential that this could wind up more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Going 4-6 down here, but a small shift could get us closer to 8. My map says <2 for cbus but low confidence. If dry air doesn't eat too much moisture, wouldn't be surprised to see you guys hit 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I might be a stubborn weenie, but I can't look at a 30 hr map like this and throw in the towel. Not after what we've seen go down all winter long. And the nam is doing this with a relatively weak, south low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 SREF has most between 6-10" with only 4 below 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS does seem to have ticked north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I just checked the SREF plumes for KDAY, and holy crap at the variation. There's a group aroubd zero, a couple near 4.5, mean at 4.77, and a bunch spread out above that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 SREF has most between 6-10" with only 4 below 4" I like this a lot!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS does seem to have ticked north. it's still only 1-2" at best CMH area. At this point it's down to short range models and radar trends. We're close enough to all of this to be the beneficiary of un-modeled jog north, or a stronger precip field. I'm going with a forecast more robust than ILN, (unusual for me). I think Franklin county sees 4" on their southern border and 2 or 3 on their northern border. I think the bump north will occur during nowcast time. I think in the end we either wiff completely or get pleasantly surprised....I'm thinking the later. that's my story and I'm sticking to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yea cut offs are sharp. We still have tonight and tomorrow morning lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS does seem to have ticked north. Keep it coming!! Winter Storm Warnings just 1 county south of me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Lol.. Hope you get it Steve. I'm hoping to squeeze 3 inches to drop the plow on my lots lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 no strong blocking can also allow it to escape easier as well. That's the biggest issue. Right about the time the trough starts sharpening, there's nothing to slow it down and let it take on a neg tilt....basically the storm escapes. Yeah gotta watch for the shortwave to get sheared out too much. That would surely stop (or even revert) the north trend. Hopefully it is out ahead of impending arctic outbreak to not get sheared too much. Slightly sharper though and its game on for CMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 FWIW, DT ticked north with his 1st call map - puts CMH in the 3"-6" range. I'd be happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 FWIW, DT ticked north with his 1st call map - puts CMH in the 3"-6" range. I'd be happy with that. Now we are doomed!!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Now we are doomed!!! LOL Any port in a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 DT is on it. He's saying the models a coming in wetter and expanding the snow further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 FWIW, DT ticked north with his 1st call map - puts CMH in the 3"-6" range. I'd be happy with that. He put out one last night. I gave him a hard time saying it was way too soon for a map due to north trends and he called me an idiot. Then changes his map. He's a fool. That guy is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yea he's very entertaining. And does tend to call people stupid and idiots. And his followers are all up in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Just looking at the WV loop with my inexperienced eyes, what I see as the highest moisture content coming in is well North of what's forecast. I could be looking at the wrong thing but...... http://www.weather.gov/satellite#wv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Just looking at the WV loop with my inexperienced eyes, what I see as the highest moisture content coming in is well North of what's forecast. I could be looking at the wrong thing but...... http://www.weather.gov/satellite#wv Congratulations!!!! We have our first official weenie satellite-watervapor-radar hallucination!!! just messing with you.....don't worry, I'll be posting a RAP or HRRR model graphic at some point tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm definately staying up tonight. As of right now I'm thinking 1-3 IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Congratulations!!!! We have our first official weenie satellite-watervapor-radar hallucination!!! just messing with you.....don't worry, I'll be posting a RAP or HRRR model graphic at some point tonight Lmao, no ill will taken. I damn near crashed in a one inch blizzard yesterday and got pi$#@d on from a 12 inch forecast with the last storm. Hallucinations are my business (Avatar plug lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Congratulations!!!! We have our first official weenie satellite-watervapor-radar hallucination!!! just messing with you.....don't worry, I'll be posting a RAP or HRRR model graphic at some point tonight For fun sake what would the timing be for here? I was thinking tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm definately staying up tonight. As of right now I'm thinking 1-3 IMBY. Me to...i drive a school bus and have the day off!! So i am burning the candle tonight!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 For fun sake what would the timing be for here? I was thinking tomorrow evening. RAP shows precip moving into sw Franklin county between 11am with .01qpf by noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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