dilly84 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 lol...dude you must be a go big or go home kinda guy...hell I'd be happy knowing what the 4" shift requirements are 12z NAM - 45 miles00z EUR - 45 miles 12z GFS - 92 miles 12z GEM - 75 miles Again the 4" line could potentially be 8" if 20:1 ratios were involved. And I'd think it'd be close to cold enough. But yea I kinda am. Not a lot you can do with 4" or at least that's what my wife says. Wait.. maybe she isn't speaking of snow... lol.. But seriously takes at least 6 to ride a snowmobile lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z NAM - 45 miles 00z EUR - 45 miles 12z GFS - 92 miles 12z GEM - 75 miles Again the 4" line could potentially be 8" if 20:1 ratios were involved. And I'd think it'd be close to cold enough. Cold doesn't guarantee good ratios as we saw with that January clipper. Plus, we don't know how much dry air is going to eat into totals on the northern end. For all we know, it could take a couple of hours to moisten up. I think we need at least a 50 mile northern movement before I'll become more comfortable as to our chances at something over 4" (3.9" is this winter's big storm... in November). This winter has handed out 12"+ storms like they're Cracker Jack prizes... to everyone at or above I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Cold doesn't guarantee good ratios as we saw with that January clipper. Plus, we don't know how much dry air is going to eat into totals on the northern end. For all we know, it could take a couple of hours to moisten up.Gonna b a lot of virga w/ this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Gonna b a lot of virga w/ this one That's my worry and it's another reason to root for a more northern system. Being on the edge of the returns will be almost as bad as a whiff to the south.... worse even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That's my worry and it's another reason to root for a more northern system. Being on the edge of the returns will be almost as bad as a whiff to the south.... worse even. Winds are supposed to become easterly during the event which is always concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 euro is a carbon copy....wxbell snowfall-wise as 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 think good vibes for an 18z miracle bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 think good vibes for an 18z miracle bump Is new data input into the 06z and 18z runs? For some reason I think I read somewhere there wasnt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That's my worry and it's another reason to root for a more northern system. Being on the edge of the returns will be almost as bad as a whiff to the south.... worse even. I guess it's a personal preference. Rainers always bug we worse than southern suppressors. There's just nothing worse than having cold interrupted long enough to rain, and then cold sweeping back in. But yea, either way it sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not sure what method is used for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I guess it's a personal preference. Rainers always bug we worse than southern suppressors. There's just nothing worse than having cold interrupted long enough to rain, and then cold sweeping back in. But yea, either way it sucks. Funny how when we neex climatalogy to kick in we can't get it. KY getting slammed instead of further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not sure what method is used for this. I'm not sure either but it looks like a good method! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Lol me 2. I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro ticked north a little. Maybe 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 this is the euro....painstakingly close. You can see once it gets almost to TN...it jumps east but has an inverted trough into WV. We need a stronger storm to come further north before that jump.... literally we are talking such a small adjustment. I remember with SB, the euro was locked in with the axis of heaviest around Mansfield at this time frame. There were also two back to back identical runs. I can't recall if the euro ever depicted the Chicago to Detroit slamming outside of 24 hrs. Anyways, there will be lots of radar hallucinations. I'm sure radar will look better than what's happening on the ground if the euro's version holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro ticked north a little. Maybe 50 miles. interesting....wxbell snowfall maps, 00z and 12z looked like carbon copies. Track is still the same basically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 My moment of positivity is quickly evaporating. It's going to end up where every location in every state around us has had at least one decent storm except us. Climo continues to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 My moment of positivity is quickly evaporating. It's going to end up where every location in every state around us has had at least one decent storm except us. Climo continues to win. that's not climo....that's sh*t luck lol. Climo isn't Lexington getting a bigger storm than CMH.... likewise climo isn't IND, (worse off than us), still at single digit snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 you should see the 2-headed beast the euro just gave us later in the week.... looks like we're back to 10-12" in the pink on wxbell maps by end of next weekend. Ok whose taking this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 that's not climo....that's sh*t luck lol. Climo isn't Lexington getting a bigger storm than CMH.... likewise climo isn't IND, (worse off than us), still at single digit snowfall totals. I meant the climo I started talking about in December and winters that follow such terrible Decembers. Apparently, it's not that bad anywhere else, but for I-70... yeah, it's working out pretty much how those other winters went, except maybe colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 you should see the 2-headed beast the euro just gave us later in the week.... looks like we're back to 10-12" in the pink on wxbell maps by end of next weekend. Ok whose taking this one? 2-1 chance it either destroys Pittsburgh or Indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro ticked north a little. Maybe 50 miles. Another 50-60 miles and were in some decent snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustin Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The northern edge of the precip shield should do well with this. Others have mentioned concerns with virga, but both the NAM and GFS are showing a deep saturated DGZ on the northern edge of the system, basically from the sfc to 500mb. This is the type of system the will over perform on the northern edge, as long as convective issues to the south don't interfere with deep moisture transport. That combined with well below freezing surface temps should allow anything that falls to accumulate quickly. I'm optimistic enough to go with the higher end of the range for southern Ohio, and I'd still not rule out the trend for a more wound-up storm slightly further north. I wouldn't be surprised the axis of the heaviest snows to be on more ENE (more parallel to the Ohio River) than E to W as modeling is currently showing, with a storm that digs more north and then transfers. There is even some jet-coupling that should enhance lift. There are definitely signals showing the possibility of a northerly tic, but I don't know what to expect out of the modeling this winter, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 you should see the 2-headed beast the euro just gave us later in the week.... looks like we're back to 10-12" in the pink on wxbell maps by end of next weekend. Ok whose taking this one? You are lol. Better jump on making the thread before another does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 sref plumes are 6" for cmh but there are just as many 10" range as whiffers. The 15zsref mean maps looked a little better than the 9zrun. Specifically in northern extent of precip shield and low placement. Nothing drastic but still noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Another small tick north on the 18Z NAM. Nothing huge, but a continuation of the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Another small tick north on the 18Z NAM. Nothing huge, but a continuation of the trend. yea, baby steps....and I mean baby. There's no getting around it....this is gonna be a radar watcher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 sometimes you just have to laugh. It always seems we are either dissecting the advancement of the 0 850 line or dissecting the northern edge of the precip shield.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 sometimes you just have to laugh. It always seems we are either dissecting the advancement of the 0 850 line or dissecting the northern edge of the precip shield.... What's frustrating is if you look at just the 27hour map, it looks like we're about to get clocked. But it just squirts off to the east. So very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What's frustrating is if you look at just the 27hour map, it looks like we're about to get clocked. But it just squirts off to the east. So very close. The nam, for all the precip it still brings north, is 4mb weaker and about 100 miles further south with the low than the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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