vespasian70 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 that is good news. The plumes did very well with our last 2 events. I believe it was showing around 1.3" for yesterdays snow around this time frame. I'd just like to see a bit more digging with the wave....hopefully that will trend. Odd that the NAM hasn't already amped this thing up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 crazy runs last night. Not to be a downer, but I'm not convinced that trend continues unfortunately....but who knows. We went from a total whiff and writing this off 24 hours ago, to probably seeing winterstorm watches posted a couple counties south of us. The anecdotal weenie in me reminds myself of where Detroit was sitting at this point before the SB storm, if I recall correctly, they were still not suppose to score much. On the other hand, this is a different animal and the cold dry air over us means business. I think the models might go from seeing less confluence, (which might be why they all came north), to now seeing the strength of the cold dry air. We are suppose to have a low of -2 tonight. A lot of times when we see a big shift like this, the next couple model runs tame down, and then they nowcast back north a bit. I would much rather be in southern OH / northern KY for this one. This has the potential to be a heartbreaker, for the I-70 crowd, watching a shield of snow pass close enough to smell....or....it could be a last minute surprise. Right now I'd put I-70 at a 50% chance of 1-2", 30% chance of 2+", and 20% chance of 1" or less. But we'll see Just crazy. Went from nothing on almost all the models yesterday to WSW and 5-8" today. Still not convinced this doesn't go south sometime today. Even if we get 2" that will be double the total from DJF so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Odd that the NAM hasn't already amped this thing up yet. As buckeye was saying, I'd expect the 12Z run to stop with the north trend before it resumes again with later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Might be me, but the troph looks sharper and the 5h energy is not at spread out on the new NAM. Very close to cutting sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Kentucky gets slammed on 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Might be me, but the troph looks sharper and the 5h energy is not at spread out on the new NAM. Very close to cutting sooner the nam is slower, which might be a good thing. Overall the differences between the 12z and 6z are not huge...but the 12z is slower, a bit more north and also stronger, especially as the low enters GA. The only negative is the precip shield on the north side hasn't really changed much. I'm less worried about that, but it could also be an indication the dry air. There is no pressing high north of us, which you would think argues for continued north trends.....interesting runs ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Kentucky gets slammed on 12z nam no doubt this is a classic bluegrass slammer....they deserve it. Honestly if we are going to miss the heaviest snow, I'd much rather it be to the benefit of the southern posters than the northern ones. We've had to suffer thru enough of north misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 anyone recall when the SB storm had it's major last minute shift, screwing LAF and much of northern OH? Wasn't that virtually a nowcast situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 anyone recall when the SB storm had it's major last minute shift, screwing LAF and much of northern OH? Wasn't that virtually a nowcast situation? It kept moving north right through the storm itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 anyone recall when the SB storm had it's major last minute shift, screwing LAF and much of northern OH? Wasn't that virtually a nowcast situation? Yes, and I wouldn't rule it out the same this time around. Trending stronger. I think I'm in a good spot, if it goes north any more I could see 10 or 12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Okay, I'll go out on a limb and try this... what is it now? Positivity? 5"-6" in Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 anyone recall when the SB storm had it's major last minute shift, screwing LAF and much of northern OH? Wasn't that virtually a nowcast situation? Seems to me, at this point, I-70 should be posting wsw's. It seems fairly obvious at this point that central ohio will get 6-10" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Give me 50-75 miles north please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 anyone recall when the SB storm had it's major last minute shift, screwing LAF and much of northern OH? Wasn't that virtually a nowcast situation? It pretty much never stopped trending north to the bitter end. The last 2 or 3 model runs kept going north with the low and the 32 degree line but they were (surprise!) actually overdoing the warm air intrusions at the extreme northern part of the state (thanks to frozen Lake Erie). I still managed 10.5" of cement with some fluff on top, but it was way too close for comfort, with rain creeping in just a few miles south. I'm pulling for you guys in Central and Southern Ohio. I always say, it's much better to miss a storm to the south than to the north. Hopefully this pulls north just a tad more for you guys, you really deserve it with all the storms elsewhere in the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 some perspective: this is a post Dilly made showing the 18z nam snowfall totals.....the eve of the SB storm...lol. That axis of heavy snow ended up across southern MI.... food for thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It pretty much never stopped trending north to the bitter end. The last 2 or 3 model runs kept going north with the low and the 32 degree line but they were (surprise!) actually overdoing the warm air intrusions at the extreme northern part of the state (thanks to frozen Lake Erie). I still managed 10.5" of cement with some fluff on top, but it was way too close for comfort, with rain creeping in just a few miles south. I'm pulling for you guys in Central and Southern Ohio. I always say, it's much better to miss a storm to the south than to the north. Hopefully this pulls north just a tad more for you guys, you really deserve it with all the storms elsewhere in the country. That's what I thought. Warm air would never be an issue with this storm, no matter how far north it went....even for our buddies in KY. The cold air in place is so deep it would take a phased monster at this point to bring in precip concerns for anyone north of say Lexington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 gfs baby stepped in the right direction. Still nothing fantastic for us, but at least it's not reversing. It's hard to look at a 30 hr map like this, and sit where we are and not feel at least a bit of hope, especially this year. It all boils down to the energy coming out and how much, how strong, how consolidated. Other than that, there is nothing to keep this from going north. No HP over the lakes, pos NAO, and the confluence from the departing storm is pretty much out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 gfs baby stepped in the right direction. Still nothing fantastic for us, but at least it's not reversing. It needs to keep baby stepping right through the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I will take baby steps. To come back from where it was a day ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The SB Storm took baby jumps right to the end. The rage of the northern posters must be high right now. It was centered over us, so they had themselves a big storm. I don't think KY has had a big one, which makes it great that they are going to get clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like the 12Z models have ticked north, but have introduced a sharper gradient suggesting a battle against dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 gfs is stupid cold by Thursday.... -30 850s to northern MI. Then an overrunning train begins next weekend. ...back to your regularly scheduled program Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 gfs is stupid cold by Thursday.... -30 850s to northern MI. Then an overrunning train begins next weekend. ...back to your regularly scheduled program Yea after next weekend we will be running out of time for anything meaningful unless one of us can pull out a March storm like a few years ago...(no significant snow zone) still going strong from Springfield to Indy to Columbus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 ukmet similar to 00z in low placement but a tad weaker. We may not have a decent handle on this until 00z tonight, and even then, unless there is a remarked concensus to flatten the trough and weakening of the system, we may still end up having to rely on short range models and nowcasts tomorrow/tomorrow night. I trust nothing after the SB storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The SB Storm took baby jumps right to the end. The rage of the northern posters must be high right now. It was centered over us, so they had themselves a big storm. I don't think KY has had a big one, which makes it great that they are going to get clobbered.Are they? I mean, if we're referencing the SB storm, then in that case who's to say it wouldn't be cmh getting clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I never said CMH won't, but but it would take a lot more than the SB shift for some part of KY to not get clobbered at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Are they? I mean, if we're referencing the SB storm, then in that case who's to say it wouldn't be cmh getting clobbered. Kentucky is a lock....even if a stronger storm comes north, there is so much cold in place that the bulk of precip would fall before they ever had time to get into mixing issues. Maybe extreme southern KY would be iffy.....but 90% of that state is in an awesome position with this. This is a very rare thread the needle scenario for them....and they'll easily pull it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Kentucky is a lock....even if a stronger storm comes north, there is so much cold in place that the bulk of precip would fall before they ever had time to get into mixing issues. Maybe extreme southern KY would be iffy.....but 90% of that state is in an awesome position with this. This is a very rare thread the needle scenario for them....and they'll easily pull it off. Did some figuring for fun lol. For I-70 to be in 8" snows(This is only taking into consideration 10:1 ratios) here is the distance of a north shift we need. 12z NAM - 63 miles 00z EUR - 106 miles 12z GFS - 141 miles 12z GEM - 111 miles So if ratios were 15:1 it'd be a third of that. 20:1 half of that. You get the idea. So still pretty sizeable unless ya get high ratios but definitely not undoable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 To add to that, I don't mind losing to KY. They rarely get much of anything. So congrats to them if it all holds true. Never minded losing to the southern crowd. would be nice if we all could get in on it though as there would be more to talk about Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Did some figuring for fun lol. For I-70 to be in 8" snows(This is only taking into consideration 10:1 ratios) here is the distance of a north shift we need. 12z NAM - 63 miles 00z EUR - 106 miles 12z GFS - 141 miles 12z GEM - 111 miles So if ratios were 15:1 it'd be a third of that. 20:1 half of that. You get the idea. So still pretty sizeable unless ya get high ratios but definitely not undoable. lol...dude you must be a go big or go home kinda guy...hell I'd be happy knowing what the 4" shift requirements are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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