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Let's talk Winter!


Steve

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Welcome back.

Ganahl says 8 degrees for Tuesday morning low. Wow. That has to be a record for earliest single digit temp if it verifies?

 

About the potential single-digit lows...

 

The last time a November featured that in *any* part of the month was 1976, when the low hit single-digits twice on the 29th-30th (6 and 5 respectively). 

 

Single digits or lower have only occurred in a total of 9 Novembers since 1878.  They are:

 

1976-77:

29th: 6

30th: 5

 

1958-59

29th: 6

30th: -4

 

1956-57

24th: 9

 

1955-56

28th: 9

 

1950-51

24th: 8

25th: 5

26th: 7

 

1930-31

26th: 9

27th: 3

28th: 7

 

1929-30

29th: 4

30th: 1

 

1887-88

29th: 3

 

1880-81

19th: -3

21st: 5

22nd: -5

23rd: -1

27th: 9

 

So they don't happen often, but they can happen in very cold and very warm winters alike.  However, many of these are not great matches for this year, though 1976-77 has come up a lot. And indeed if we hit single-digits on Tuesday, that would, in fact, be the earliest on record. 

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Couple things to note for this evening from the latest HRRR:

1) The HRRR is showing precip as early as 4-6pm. This will likely be light and NOT the accumulating snow we expect. In fact, some of that may even be a rain/snow mix especially south of the Ohio River. It has a lull around 10-11pm before more later.

2) It then shows a heavier round of precip poised to move in after 05z tonight. THIS will be the round to watch for more significant accumulation although a light amount (coating to 1") is plausible from the first round if we see some heavier precip rates or surface temps are cool enough.

3) The HRRR does not show surface temps dropping below 32 in the Cincy & Columbus metro's until about 5-6z (12am-1am) which means its forecast for 2-3" already on the ground by then is likely over done.

I'm off to work, but will monitor the next few HRRR runs, latest observations, and maybe even the 12z Euro icon_smile.gif before posting my final outlook this afternoon. I'm still kinda feeling the 2-4" forecast with wording for isolated higher amounts. up through the 71 zone. The reason I do that is because I'm not confident enough in widespread amounts greater than 4" except in a narrow corridor which has yet to be completely determined IMO.

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Hopefully the fact that it's been flurrying all afternoon bodes well that we can stay away from too many...if any....rain drops to start.   I tried to make sense of ILN's detailed discussion and my head is still spinning.   I think they are saying 3-5 with a potential for another inch tomorrow?  

 

They mention the axis of heaviest snow will be riding the transition line.  That bodes well for our area.   We might be close enough to smell the rain without tasting it.  We here in CMH are pros at surfing that line :lol:

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Hopefully the fact that it's been flurrying all afternoon bodes well that we can stay away from too many...if any....rain drops to start.   I tried to make sense of ILN's detailed discussion and my head is still spinning.   I think they are saying 3-5 with a potential for another inch tomorrow?  

 

They mention the axis of heaviest snow will be riding the transition line.  That bodes well for our area.   We might be close enough to smell the rain without tasting it.  We here in CMH are pros at surfing that line :lol:

 

Riding the edge has worked out pretty well since about March 2008.  Last February's snowstorm is a good example.

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Hopefully the fact that it's been flurrying all afternoon bodes well that we can stay away from too many...if any....rain drops to start.   I tried to make sense of ILN's detailed discussion and my head is still spinning.   I think they are saying 3-5 with a potential for another inch tomorrow?  

 

They mention the axis of heaviest snow will be riding the transition line.  That bodes well for our area.   We might be close enough to smell the rain without tasting it.  We here in CMH are pros at surfing that line :lol:

I think Franklin and Licking counties will do just fine. We always seem to be on the transition line, maybe it will pay off this time around.

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No liking where's it's seting uo so far. First part, I understand but current radar kinda goes with what hrrr shows. Guess we'll have to watch and see where the heavy bands set up. Still gonna be fun to track this early regardless.

 

C'mon Dilly we're tracking a snowstorm on Nov. 16th.   There's nothing that will disappoint me.  Not seeing anything I don't like yet.  That disconnected area to the west was depicted well on the modeling.  I think the steady stuff probably doesn't fill in and get here til after 10.   Patience grasshopper :snowman:

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C'mon Dilly we're tracking a snowstorm on Nov. 16th.   There's nothing that will disappoint me.  Besides not seeing anything I don't like yet.  That disconnected area to the west was depicted well on the modeling.  I think the steady stuff probably doesn't fill in and get here til after 10.   Patience grasshopper :snowman:

I agree. To be honest, I'd be happy with any snow - it's just an incredible bonus that it could potentially be 5"-6"!! The overall pattern itself is what I'm digging, bodes well for the upcoming winter.

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