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Let's talk Winter!


Steve

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well maybe that was a temporary tease to pull us back....euro didn't play ball. I think my call to wait til 00z tonight was a good one. Fairly certain if there are any future trends good or bad, they'll show by then.

Hopefully we can pull off some decent snow showers/squalls today

Of the three, on the SB Storm, the EURO was the last to play ball. Could be the same thing happening again. If it happens again, I think the reign of the euro has ended.

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Of the three, on the SB Storm, the EURO was the last to play ball. Could be the same thing happening again. If it happens again, I think the reign of the euro has ended.

 

I was hoping the trend would be for a stronger second wave but maybe the first wave is our best hope afterall, (ukmet).  The euro does actually come close to bringing us precip with that, at least to southern IN.   By the time the second piece comes out, it's too late, the first piece has flattened heights and the trough progresses east. 

 

I think in the end we need everything consolidated or precip won't make it up here.   Time is running out but models are also not totally lined up either so questions still remain.

 

on that note: snow has started here :) .    Today is like the no turn back day into the arctic plunge.  Will be interesting to see our next above 32 day....it might be a long time.  (that's why I want snow this late in the season ...if it's going to be that cold)

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I was hoping the trend would be for a stronger second wave but maybe the first wave is our best hope afterall, (ukmet).  The euro does actually come close to bringing us precip with that, at least to southern IN.   By the time the second piece comes out, it's too late, the first piece has flattened heights and the trough progresses east. 

 

I think in the end we need everything consolidated or precip won't make it up here.   Time is running out but models are also not totally lined up either so questions still remain.

 

on that note: snow has started here :) .    Today is like the no turn back day into the arctic plunge.  Will be interesting to see our next above 32 day....it might be a long time.  (that's why I want snow this late in the season ...if it's going to be that cold)

The first wave is going to be fighting a ton of dry air here, I doubt we even see a flake.  Cutoff is going to be razor thin.  Used to be when the Euro was out on it's own you still had a pretty good shot, but not this year.

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I went back to the Ohio thread from last winter and read  the posts leading up to the Jan 5th fiasco.  I'm sure you guys remember that one.   We had intermittent light rain, and peeks of sun while Indiana got slammed with a blizzard.   Anyways, 3-4 days out there were posts about how it was going to miss us to the south....even as close as 36 hours out, ILN had us as all snow.

 

just some perspective

 

As mentioned before, as far as the heights and placement of the shortwaves, this one does have some similarities to the December 2004 storm (I think you all remember how that one played out)...

 

122215.png

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We need things to change fast if we want a repeat though. I'm going to send the punt team out for the 0z runs.

You're holding out longer than me lol. My hope is that with some good ratios maybe picking up a surprise 3 or 4 inches today. I wouldn't see any reasons for good ratios with the .2 qpf.

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gfs going to the 00z euro is pretty much the kiss of death....but I will do my final model check at 00z before I officially sign the death warrant.   Lol at the MA forum, they deleted the entire storm thread after the gfs run :lmao:

 

The most brutal aspect moving ahead is the cold....absolute frigid temps with a dusting on the ground.  Horribly depressing stuff.

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I think Dilly should be the designated eternal optimist for late next weeks fantasy event.    I'm playing debbie downer role, I'm going to provide sound reasoning as to why it won't happen, even if every model is agreeing 3 days out that we're getting a snowstorm....I will become more than annoying.  

 

Maybe we just need to mix things up to finally get nailed :lol:

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I think Dilly should be the designated eternal optimist for late next weeks fantasy event. I'm playing debbie downer role, I'm going to provide sound reasoning as to why it won't happen, even if every model is agreeing 3 days out that we're getting a snowstorm....I will become more than annoying.

Maybe we just need to mix things up to finally get nailed :lol:

I'm usually not a Debbie downer but there was just too much consensus. Not to mention we have officially been screwed in every way possible this winter..

BUT late next week looks like a sure hit. 8-12" isn't out of the question late next week lol.

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I think Dilly should be the designated eternal optimist for late next weeks fantasy event. I'm playing debbie downer role, I'm going to provide sound reasoning as to why it won't happen, even if every model is agreeing 3 days out that we're getting a snowstorm....I will become more than annoying.

Maybe we just need to mix things up to finally get nailed :lol:

I'm already on record for the fantasy land storm. Have a good feeling about it, and honestly, getting missed to the south with no ugly north trend is a good thing. It means there's no reason we can't get a hit, it throws into question the meme for this winter.

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I'm already on record for the fantasy land storm. Have a good feeling about it, and honestly, getting missed to the south with no ugly north trend is a good thing. It means there's no reason we can't get a hit, it throws into question the meme for this winter.

That system next weekend looks epic to our south on the Euro.  Between the two systems, the Euro has much of TN getting 36 inches of snow in the next ten days :axe:

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Heavy snow here right now. Too bad it'll only last an hour. And yea I seen that too Mike. Pretty sick that Georgia could finish the season with higher snow total lol

Just about anyone could beat us!  CVG's DJF snow total sits at 3.1" so far.  We've yet to measure more than 0.9" in a 24 hour period.

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Just about anyone could beat us! CVG's DJF snow total sits at 3.1" so far. We've yet to measure more than 0.9" in a 24 hour period.

Cmh is up to around 12" I believe. Tbh this is one of the worst winters I can ever remember with regards to snow.. Missed to east, north, south.. next one is going west lol.

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