snowlover2 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro followed suit. Too much model consensus. It's over. I'll look at one more set tonight, but at this point I'll give 2% of 4"+ We said the same thing about the SB storm and look what happened just 2 days out. Not writing this off until Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z NAM coming in farther north with precip. This ain't over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We said the same thing about the SB storm and look what happened just 2 days out. Not writing this off until Sunday. But there were signs of a north movement long before. We are 3 days away with little movement to say it's coming this far north at this point. Guess we will see. Towel will be completely thrown at 0z if there is no significant move north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 But there were signs of a north movement long before. We are 3 days away with little movement to say it's coming this far north at this point. Guess we will see. Towel will be completely thrown at 0z if there is no significant move north. To be honest, that storm which was a Sunday storm, didn't start to fall apart on the models until the 12Z Friday runs. The 18Z NAM is not so far away from us...just saying....not to be positive or anything. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 buckeye needs to be the negative nancy until the slump is broken. the last week of february has no chance. retrograding ridging, pna reversal, southeast ridge, spring sun angle, bleak, bleak. Sickening how this energy next week won't do anything. oh I can do negative nancy, believe me.... I'll have you all hating me and begging Hoosier to ban me by sunrise March 1st in the meantime, I fully understand the gravity of the current situation, although I'm in it for another 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 To be honest, that storm which was a Sunday storm, didn't start to fall apart on the models until the 12Z Friday runs. The 18Z NAM is not so far away from us...just saying....not to be positive or anything. ;-) And the 12z Ukie had several inches up to central OH. North shift is starting sooner with this one than the SB storm but signs are there that this could be coming back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z GFS is farther north and more amped with wave 2. Step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z GFS is farther north and more amped with wave 2. Step in the right direction. the first real positive change since the southeast trend debacle started 2 days ago. The gfs is bringing the energy out in a more consolidated piece....sacrificing the front running snows for a larger partially-phased low. Don't know if this is the result of new data and a trend will begin, or if it's just a hiccup. If it's new data and a trend, the low should continue to model stronger and north. I think we can work with a map like that 4 days out, (assuming the solution to bring the energy all out has merit) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z GFS is farther north and more amped with wave 2. Step in the right direction. I'm glad you're confident. I see nothing to think it's not staying south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The negativity in the main storm treat is getting comical. Even though they are further north than most of is, they don't seem to like to hold out hope on this storm. Models took a step in the right direction, hopefully they keep on moving. Most of us are 200-300 miles NW of the current GFS snow axis, so that shift isn't out of the question at all. Like the SB storm, if this amps up, it could land right on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 I believe the 18z GFS is further NW...if i am reading it right..http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=gfs&run=18&fhr=31&field=ptype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I believe the 18z GFS is further NW...if i am reading it right..http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=gfs&run=18&fhr=31&field=ptype It did make a north shift as did most of the models today. We'll see if it continues soon with the 0z runs as the NAM is running now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 0z nam seems a lot slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 0z NAM is weaker with wave 1. This allows more interaction with wave 2 and the southern energy. Wave 2 looks amped at hour 84 and shows promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hopefully that strengthening of the southern wave can push this thing north. The nam shows promise, so now we have to see if the gf's follows more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 It does look slower..and just misses us to the east and south..Looking better!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It does look slower..and just misses us to the east and south..Looking better!! it's not missing anything, it's still developing. The nam cleared the playing field ahead of it. Now all we need is a little more strength in that digging sw....a little more ridging to the east and the nam is going to explode out of the gulf with a ton of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 if these start phasing better in the next few model runs.....we are all gonna start sweating the 850 0 line again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 it's not missing anything, it's still developing. The nam cleared the playing field ahead of it. Now all we need is a little more strength in that digging sw....a little more ridging to the east and the nam is going to explode out of the gulf with a ton of moisture. I Meant that run shows it missing us..but closer!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I Meant that run shows it missing us..but closer!! It's still developing down in Texas. We don't know if this run would miss us or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 0z GFS gets precip into southern/se Ohio. North trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 the trend of the last 3 runs of the gfs is perfect....no crazy jumps...just a slow reversal of the southeast squashing. This storm is next Tuesday....there's a long winding road to get there and I still think everything and anything is on the table. Now we just need a global or 2 to start joining in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I went back to the Ohio thread from last winter and read the posts leading up to the Jan 5th fiasco. I'm sure you guys remember that one. We had intermittent light rain, and peeks of sun while Indiana got slammed with a blizzard. Anyways, 3-4 days out there were posts about how it was going to miss us to the south....even as close as 36 hours out, ILN had us as all snow. just some perspective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hello ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hello ukie the ukie is also a different scenario. It's sending out the low much earlier than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 ggem is still south with the strung out look the earlier gfs runs had gefs look pretty close to op gfs fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 angry doesn't sound too optimistic about this one.... you know what that means!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Tonight's run is very encouraging. We're really not far off, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 the ukie is also a different scenario. It's sending out the low much earlier than the other models.Hey its been doing well this year. Don't fail us now ukie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 well maybe that was a temporary tease to pull us back....euro didn't play ball. I think my call to wait til 00z tonight was a good one. Fairly certain if there are any future trends good or bad, they'll show by then. Hopefully we can pull off some decent snow showers/squalls today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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