jbcmh81 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 yes....I know that. I get the whole thing about pessimism never disappointing...I've taken that road before too. I just hate being the ONLY one on the other road....lol A decade ago, I would've been right there with you every year (and was). Hell, even if it was last year. This year just hasn't given me any motivation to do that. My whole belief was, north, south, east or west, something would go wrong with this threat. Still a few days to watch and see if it pops back up, but it's not looking good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wow. Well the GFS truly has a gulf low. Just doesnt want to exit the gulf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wow. Well the GFS truly has a gulf low. Just doesnt want to exit the gulf! Yea definitely not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 At least the ukie is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 At least the ukie is better.Its been leading the pack it seems. A glimmer of hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I hope this holds til 00z sunday.... we need a miracle fast.....kinda funny that the uk is now the farthest north lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Winter storm watch for Havana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This seems more true this year especially. It seems like all the models shift in the same manner from run to run (and even seem to have ensemble support) which appears to give "confidence" since you have a consensus but it could just be they have all reached a consensus of being wrong. Have any storms actually verified within 200 miles of their modeled location at day 5 this year? Seeing the UK move North is a good sign given past performance, it seems to have been the canary in the coal mine so to speak. The GFS and Euro have tended to be a cycle or 2 behind catching up to what it shows and the CMC 3-4 cycles behind. I admit these comments are purely anecdotal but I think anyone following the models for the past 2-3 storms would say they have noticed something similar. you mean like every model showing the axis of heaviest snow along the I-70 corridor and south at 72 hours before the last storm? my many years of following models has taught me that just because they all suddenly go to a similar solution, doesn't mean it's right...especially when the shift is sudden. That could just mean they're all digesting the same bad data....especially at this range. You guys all remember the infamous blizzard app runner that showed up on all the models like 96 hours out, (I think it was in 2007). Everyone bought it because ALL the models suddenly had it. I remember LC's blog about how Ohio was going to be paralyzed and a similar blog from one of the accuwx mets. A day later models began to lose it one by one and it eventually was a slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I hope this holds til 00z sunday.... we need a miracle fast.....kinda funny that the uk is now the farthest north lol. It wont. Not unless something in the modeling changes. That's why I'm only giving it til 0z tonight.Edit: actually now that the NAM is close enough to pick it up that's one more model on the train to consensus. If GFS and EURO here on the 12z runs look similar, I'm done with it this afternoon. So far it's looking like a good choice to not buy a snowmobile based on this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Time to stick a fork in what was a pipe dream to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 well the bleeding stopped at least...and a baby's step in the right direction. 4.5 days out. Still need a small miracle, but maybe not a HUGE miracle...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Time to stick a fork in what was a pipe dream to begin with.Agree. Euro has caved to the gfs and nam last 2 major storms so even if it comes in more north, Id bet it corrects back to the GFS and NAM. Game over, Buckeye. I wanted to give til 0z tonight but there's no sign of a shift. At this point we need a March 08 coup.Baby step when your 1000 miles off isn't much hope. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Time to stick a fork in what was a pipe dream to begin with.Yeah my towel is currently in hand on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 well the bleeding stopped at least...and a baby's step in the right direction. 4.5 days out. Still need a small miracle, but maybe not a HUGE miracle...lol I think it's time to take the snow goggles off Buck. Remember about 5 days ago med range was showing high after pressing high squashing everything, only then to be followed by moderation & rain.? We can't even get one of these clippers to perform let alone over-perform! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think it's time to take the snow goggles off Buck. Remember about 5 days ago med range was showing high after pressing high squashing everything, only then to be followed by moderation & rain.? We can't even get one of these clippers to perform let alone over-perform! I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything, including myself. If by snow goggles you mean I believe we are going to get a snowstorm from this....then I don't have snow goggles on. I'm kinda tired of having to put a disclaimer on every post, "I realize we need a miracle...etc", but apparently those disclaimers aren't working But I don't think that continuing to follow models for something 4 days out is wearing snow goggles. Dilly, Jay, J and the rest of you guys can't tell me you won't be looking at the models tonight or tomorrow morning. You all will. The difference between you and I is that I'll admit it and post about them. Granted there is a point where it ain't happening. I guess you have to define what 'it' is, and then use history to tell us what is the timeframe when models will finally have their say, (generally speaking). I've said several days ago....Sunday 00z. I'm sticking by that. THAT DOES NOT MEAN I BELIEVE WE ARE HAVING A SNOWSTORM UNLESS THE 00Z SUNDAY MODELS TELL US OTHERWISE. You guys are driving me f*ing crazy , I was under the impression this was a weather forum where we discuss weather, models, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything, including myself. If by snow goggles you mean I believe we are going to get a snowstorm from this....then I don't have snow goggles on. I'm kinda tired of having to put a disclaimer on every post, "I realize we need a miracle...etc", but apparently those disclaimers aren't working But I don't think that continuing to follow models for something 4 days out is wearing snow goggles. Dilly, Jay, J and the rest of you guys can't tell me you won't be looking at the models tonight or tomorrow morning. You all will. The difference between you and I is that I'll admit it and post about them. Granted there is a point where it ain't happening. I guess you have to define what 'it' is, and then use history to tell us what is the timeframe when models will finally have their say, (generally speaking). I've said several days ago....Sunday 00z. I'm sticking by that. THAT DOES NOT MEAN I BELIEVE WE ARE HAVING A SNOWSTORM UNLESS THE 00Z SUNDAY MODELS TELL US OTHERWISE. You guys are driving me f*ing crazy , I was under the impression this was a weather forum where we discuss weather, models, etc. No, you're right. Just think the signs are on table that this one is a loss. What did canadian show? UK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Oh I'm still looking at the models, but not for the Tuesday storm anymore. I'm still hoping for a good old fashioned, long duration, overrunning event. So I'm looking beyond Tuesday. There are hints down the road in fantasy land that it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything, including myself. If by snow goggles you mean I believe we are going to get a snowstorm from this....then I don't have snow goggles on. I'm kinda tired of having to put a disclaimer on every post, "I realize we need a miracle...etc", but apparently those disclaimers aren't working But I don't think that continuing to follow models for something 4 days out is wearing snow goggles. Dilly, Jay, J and the rest of you guys can't tell me you won't be looking at the models tonight or tomorrow morning. You all will. The difference between you and I is that I'll admit it and post about them. Granted there is a point where it ain't happening. I guess you have to define what 'it' is, and then use history to tell us what is the timeframe when models will finally have their say, (generally speaking). I've said several days ago....Sunday 00z. I'm sticking by that. THAT DOES NOT MEAN I BELIEVE WE ARE HAVING A SNOWSTORM UNLESS THE 00Z SUNDAY MODELS TELL US OTHERWISE. You guys are driving me f*ing crazy , I was under the impression this was a weather forum where we discuss weather, models, etc. I'm pessimistic too but I'm up to discuss it with ya still CMC has a large northern snow shield which even a small shift north could yield some light consolation snow lol. The UKMET precip map at hr 74 looks pretty far north but the classic map at hr 96 has a 1005 mb over northern South Carolina hard to tell if we get much out of that. Normally I'd be happy with this hr 72 off today's 12z UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Call me crazy, but I don't think this one is dead for you guys. 12z GGEM ticked north again. The 12z UK is the one that's intriguing to me (image below). Granted it may be a scraper for OH as it heads east...but, I'm seeing some interesting things on some of the models. Hopefully this one trends even better in the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We'll all get a snow squall or two tomorrow and be briefly happy regardless of this Tuesday mess. The ridge on the west coast is sharp and the pattern is very amplified, it wouldn't shock me if the northern stream shortwave comes in farther southwest and helps kick out more of the Baja cutoff and results in a somewhat stronger storm. If we see that trend it should show itself within a day or so IMO if it'll be enough to really help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm pessimistic too but I'm up to discuss it with ya still ... then we're exactly on the same page. I'm just saying let me post a model showing this or that without being a called a crazy, snow-goggle-wearing mofo. that's all I'm say'n man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything, including myself. If by snow goggles you mean I believe we are going to get a snowstorm from this....then I don't have snow goggles on. I'm kinda tired of having to put a disclaimer on every post, "I realize we need a miracle...etc", but apparently those disclaimers aren't working But I don't think that continuing to follow models for something 4 days out is wearing snow goggles. Dilly, Jay, J and the rest of you guys can't tell me you won't be looking at the models tonight or tomorrow morning. You all will. The difference between you and I is that I'll admit it and post about them. Granted there is a point where it ain't happening. I guess you have to define what 'it' is, and then use history to tell us what is the timeframe when models will finally have their say, (generally speaking). I've said several days ago....Sunday 00z. I'm sticking by that. THAT DOES NOT MEAN I BELIEVE WE ARE HAVING A SNOWSTORM UNLESS THE 00Z SUNDAY MODELS TELL US OTHERWISE. You guys are driving me f*ing crazy , I was under the impression this was a weather forum where we discuss weather, models, etc. I'll look and I'll post, but I think there comes a point where there's very little hope. Again, when they're all showing the system south I mean isn't that what we always look for? Some sort of consensus. Idk just seems a given this is going to miss us to the south, its just a matter of how far south it misses. I'll happily eat crow if it hits us, but the odds are severely stacked against us. With that said, I'm sure I speak for everyone when I say we enjoy your posts and input lol. Part of that is agreeing and sometimes disagreeing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 then we're exactly on the same page. I'm just saying let me post a model showing this or that without being a called a crazy, snow-goggle-wearing mofo. that's all I'm say'n man You know I love ya man! The snow goggle comment was not just directed at you, but me as well. Lol. I'm staring at the models right along side of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You know I love ya man! The snow goggle comment was not just directed at you, but me as well. Lol. I'm staring at the models right along side of you. I know, I just liked the way "snow-goggle-wearing-mofo" sounded By the way, kinda funny they are having the same debate in the MA thread. I stole this post from zwyts over there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Oh I'm still looking at the models, but not for the Tuesday storm anymore. I'm still hoping for a good old fashioned, long duration, overrunning event. So I'm looking beyond Tuesday. There are hints down the road in fantasy land that it could happen. oh good, maybe next time I'll play the role of debbie downer. This optimism route is draining lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 oh good, maybe next time I'll play the role of debbie downer. This optimism route is draining lol Yeah, I don't have the Debbie downer stamina that jb has, even though I see his point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah, I don't have the Debbie downer stamina that jb has, even though I see his point. I see his point but it's also the easiest path to take.....I don't care how good of a winter it is, any given snowstorm beyond day 3 in the models is more likely than not to fail. You could poo poo every threat in front of us in a given season and come out smelling like a rose with an 80% success rate. Having no faith is the easiest position to take....every time. OTOH, someone like Bastard is the opposite, he's the ultimate masochist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuckeyeSam Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Is it better to be wrong and snow covered than disappointed again? It seems most on here have arrived at that point. Can't say I haven't been there myself, but I've learned over the years not to get too caught up in any forecast more than 48 hours out. Doesn't mean I don't enjoy watching things change because they always do. I appreciate your optimism Buckeye as much as I enjoy your analysis of every potential storm. Keep it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Last week of February it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro followed suit. Too much model consensus. It's over. I'll look at one more set tonight, but at this point I'll give 2% of 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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