buckeye Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 18z continues trend for next week, a little more south with the front running snows but then a nice app runner after that. definitely south east of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 12z did as well compared 2 previous runs. That may be our snow even though not much. The stronger that one is the more south w/ the one next wk probably. whatever snow falls with that system on Saturday will be fun, (even if light).....brutal cold and strong winds with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 whatever snow falls with that system on Saturday will be fun, (even if light).....brutal cold and strong winds with itI know. I am really looking foward to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2015/02/11/Central-Ohio-has-dodged-the-snow-bullet-this-season.html Even the Dispatch has noticed this winter sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2015/02/11/Central-Ohio-has-dodged-the-snow-bullet-this-season.html Even the Dispatch has noticed this winter sucks. So you have zero faith in anything substantial in the next couple weeks? Unless all the modeling is total BS, I don't know how you can't be somewhat encouraged. We haven't had the look the models are giving us now in the med-long range, all winter long. The southern jet breaking thru with arctic highs stretched across the north. Cross polar flow. Is it right? I guess we'll find out, but I'm cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 So you have zero faith in anything substantial in the next couple weeks? Unless all the modeling is total BS, I don't know how you can't be somewhat encouraged. We haven't had the look the models are giving us now in the med-long range, all winter long. The southern jet breaking thru with arctic highs stretched across the north. Cross polar flow. Is it right? I guess we'll find out, but I'm cautiously optimistic.I am too. Just gotta hope the storms don't all phase too heavily and get amped up with zero Atlantic blocking. Big overrunning could get us a good storm, otherwise we need to settle for moderate events. Can't see a monster smacking us with the current setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I am too. Just gotta hope the storms don't all phase too heavily and get amped up with zero Atlantic blocking. Big overrunning could get us a good storm, otherwise we need to settle for moderate events. Can't see a monster smacking us with the current setup. well nothing wrong with a good phase, as long as it happens further east. The default is to say a phase hurts us, that depends where it occurs. on another note...the nam is up to almost .2 for the Saturday 'clipper'....arctic wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 So you have zero faith in anything substantial in the next couple weeks? Unless all the modeling is total BS, I don't know how you can't be somewhat encouraged. We haven't had the look the models are giving us now in the med-long range, all winter long. The southern jet breaking thru with arctic highs stretched across the north. Cross polar flow. Is it right? I guess we'll find out, but I'm cautiously optimistic. I'd rather be faithless and pleasantly surprised than hopeful and disappointed. It's worked out so far. I can't say there's a 0% chance of a decent storm, as this winter has provided plenty of them... everywhere else. Climo and the pattern all winter works against it here, though, and I will continue to think that's how it's going to go until something changes. I can't rely on the same models that agreed on a pretty good storm for us... just to get a slushy inch and a bunch of rain. The arctic air would, to me, only suggest suppression. Bottom line, I think something is going to go wrong again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'd rather be faithless and pleasantly surprised than hopeful and disappointed. It's worked out so far. I can't say there's a 0% chance of a decent storm, as this winter has provided plenty of them... everywhere else. Climo and the pattern all winter works against it here, though, and I will continue to think that's how it's going to go until something changes. I can't rely on the same models that agreed on a pretty good storm for us... just to get a slushy inch and a bunch of rain. The arctic air would, to me, only suggest suppression. Bottom line, I think something is going to go wrong again. can't argue with you I feel mostly the same way, I'm just allowing myself to open up a little more and risk some disappointment. I figure what the hell, we only have a few more weeks of potential anyways. (I don't count March lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'd rather be faithless and pleasantly surprised than hopeful and disappointed. It's worked out so far. I can't say there's a 0% chance of a decent storm, as this winter has provided plenty of them... everywhere else. Climo and the pattern all winter works against it here, though, and I will continue to think that's how it's going to go until something changes. I can't rely on the same models that agreed on a pretty good storm for us... just to get a slushy inch and a bunch of rain. The arctic air would, to me, only suggest suppression. Bottom line, I think something is going to go wrong again. 100% agree with this. It's the winter where if something can go wrong, it will. I'm sure we can eek out some 1-3" piddly stuff, but I see either Toledo cutters, strung out weak suppressors, or your average clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 sheeesh, you guys make me feel like one of the dudes playing the violin on the titanic deck. go run to your life boats, but I swear if we get clobbered next week I'm gonna troll you like Alek on meth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 sheeesh, you guys make me feel like one of the dudes playing the violin on the titanic deck. go run to your life boats, but I swear if we get clobbered next week I'm gonna troll you like Alek on meth I'm on board but as I said last storm I'm not investing hours and hours into this one. I was on the verge of being done altogether but I'm too much of a weather nut to allow it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 sheeesh, you guys make me feel like one of the dudes playing the violin on the titanic deck. go run to your life boats, but I swear if we get clobbered next week I'm gonna troll you like Alek on meth I've been more or less playing the negative role hoping I'd be wrong, but it hasn't worked out that way. It would hugely ironic, though, if there was a decent last gasp of winter and it all ended up pretty close to my original winter forecast. If the rest of the month is as cold as the models show, the season will end up below normal and close to the 27 degrees I had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 gfs looks like it may continue a southeast trend....at least so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I know you guys are talking about the big dog next week, but this weekend is starting to look interesting and hopefully will set us up really well for said big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 actually gfs later panels looks the same if not a hair north, not enough to cause any issues north of the river though....thru 147 should be a nice hit....low tracks from n. AL to central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 actually gfs later panels looks the same if not a hair north, not enough to cause any issues north of the river though....thru 147 should be a nice hit....low tracks from n. AL to central VA Almost too good to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 actually gfs later panels looks the same if not a hair north, not enough to cause any issues north of the river though....thru 147 should be a nice hit....low tracks from n. AL to central VA Looks great to me. We'll see what the euro says. Would be great if we actually have some run to run consistency over the next few runs. Not getting my hopes up too much, but I think we have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 still way early as we all know. Around hr 120 is when it's pulling out of TX, that's the point where we have to watch for a stronger low evolving in the next runs which could screw us. Up until 120 the run was almost a carbon copy of recent runs. After that still pretty similar other than noise. I guess on the good side we aren't 'technically' in the bullseye....that award goes to the southern Ohio guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 and the ukie comes in with a sheared POS off the Carolina coast. Scary thing is this was the timeframe it was nailing the Feb1 storm with the way north scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GGEM is nice, although a bit of a north shift unfortunately. I just can't see the 12+ that the GFS is trying to dump. I don't think this is the pattern for that. I would say the two most likely options right now are the storm gets more wound up (cuts north, screws us) or a weaker solution with a nice moderate event. Maybe if it is going slow enough we could surpass say 8", but I would love to know how many big storms we've received in the past with little Atlantic blocking and other pattern indicators the way they are now. I just can't feel very comfortable knowing there is very little stopping this thing from going north should it get stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 5 days is a lifetime in the model world. The reason the euro was so far southeast was because it's 2 lows....reality will probably be one low. So obvious question is track/strength. I had a feeling the euro was going to come in southeast because the 00z GEFS were WAY southeast of the gfs OP run. I have to admit, it's nice to have some breathing room if nothing else. I think this will adjust west, hopefully not too far. Still have plenty of bumping around on the models ahead. At least the defensive front line is stronger with this storm than it was with the last one, so hopefully it can hold. I'm still way too intrigued by the ukmet and it's outlier solution of sending it OTS. Imagine if that ends up being right and the uk scores the coupe on the 2 major winterstorms to affect the forum. By the way, where's Dilly??? He looks like he's in a nice spot for potentially 3+" this weekend. Models are juicing up the eastern half of Ohio with that clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Picked up around 1" last night from the snow showers. I hope this bodes well for the weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Very nice snow showers here right now. It's too bad they won't last that long, but we should get a quick inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 wind and probably under 1/8 vis right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 lol...gfs whiffs us, takes low off the VA coast. But damn, it is getting closer and closer to showing a nice app runner. Sharpen that trough a bit at 120. I actually like this trend at this far out. I'd rather it be showing a low running off the midatlantic coast at 138 than showing it cut thru KY. ironically it's time to start rooting for some phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 lol...gfs whiffs us, takes low off the VA coast. But damn, it is getting closer and closer to showing a nice app runner. Sharpen that trough a bit at 120. I actually like this trend at this far out. I'd rather it be showing a low running off the midatlantic coast at 138 than showing it cut thru KY. ironically it's time to start rooting for some phasing With our luck... this will be right and it runs off the coast....why not!! A miss north and south in a 2 week span!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 With our luck... this will be right and it runs off the coast....why not!! A miss north and south in a 2 week span!! Blame the Appalachian mountains. They make it nearly impossible to get a good storm. We have to have a perfect set-up and I am quickly losing hope this weekend. EURO south, GFS south, UKIE south, GEM South, NAM Still in question. Seems like pretty good model consensus even this far out that this is going to be a southern system. Without at least a partial phase we might as well just have a clipper. I'm not worried yet, but if they all come in with a whiff to the south today (4 days out) I'm gonna worry that it's set with them all agreeing. Nows the time we need models to start showing a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Blame the Appalachian mountains. They make it nearly impossible to get a good storm. We have to have a perfect set-up and I am quickly losing hope this weekend. EURO south, GFS south, UKIE south, GEM South, NAM Still in question. Seems like pretty good model consensus even this far out that this is going to be a southern system. Without at least a partial phase we might as well just have a clipper. I'm not worried yet, but if they all come in with a whiff to the south today (4 days out) I'm gonna worry that it's set with them all agreeing. Nows the time we need models to start showing a phase. c'mon you're not thinking this thru. We have three possible places we could be sitting at 120 hrs out. 1.) bullseyed 2.)on the warm side with a warm tongue 3.)too far north I'll take option 3 ALL DAY LONG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 c'mon you're not thinking this thru. We have three possible places we could be sitting at 120 hrs out. 1.) bullseyed 2.)on the warm side with a warm tongue 3.)too far north I'll take option 3 ALL DAY LONG the thing that worries me is we are getting in the realm of being way too far north.. But if we can get a partial phase that should change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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