Let's talk Winter!

[Whitelakeroy]

you know, I've been thinking about that....and honestly it's getting pretty close to what I would consider too much, even for me.   I mean, as a homeowner there are a lot of concerns I would start having.   Imagine what happens if all this snow ends with a rainstorm?....what a nightmare.

A lot of people don't think like this and it is true.  Last year when we had the massive snow pack (5"+ QPF) here we were VERY lucky to escape without a major spring rain and only had a progressive warm up.  While flooding is not a concern IMBY it would have been horrible for many area in southern MI.  I am sure some are very concerned as Boston can very easily get a big time coastal as a rain producer.

[wxdudemike]

ok, I have a question that I've wondered about for awhile...maybe there's someone in the know who can answer this.   Why the hell is ILN ALWAYS the last office to update their AFD?    The weird thing is it's always been like that, for as long as I can remember, no matter who is writing it.   Is there some kind of protocol or logistical reason?

Offices all around us issue their AFDs between 3 and 330.  ILN rarely has one out before 4:15.

To my knowledge there is no protocol.  I know a couple guys there who have said things like "I try to get mine out by x:xx time" and it seems like some of them just really don't like having to do it.  Like when we have an impending severe wx outbreak and all they say is "CAPE and shear are favorable for severe storms this evening" its like NO ****, I knew that before I read this!

 

Not liking the look of next week so far.  GFS a perfect hit (walking the line) and the Euro is too far north (despite the weenie maps having 15" for CMH )

[vespasian70]

Chris Bradley mentioned next week's storm on FB. We are doomed.

[buckeye]

To my knowledge there is no protocol.  I know a couple guys there who have said things like "I try to get mine out by x:xx time" and it seems like some of them just really don't like having to do it.  Like when we have an impending severe wx outbreak and all they say is "CAPE and shear are favorable for severe storms this evening" its like NO ****, I knew that before I read this!

 

Not liking the look of next week so far.  GFS a perfect hit (walking the line) and the Euro is too far north (despite the weenie maps having 15" for CMH )

 

yea, get us he hell out of the bullseye.   I don't care if that means too far north or south, just get us out of the target 6 days out.  

 

So right now the 6z gfs brings us a change to rain with the low into OH.   The euro brings the low into southern OH but looks cold regardless, the ggem and uk are too far south for us.   

[buckeye]

To my knowledge there is no protocol.  I know a couple guys there who have said things like "I try to get mine out by x:xx time" and it seems like some of them just really don't like having to do it.  Like when we have an impending severe wx outbreak and all they say is "CAPE and shear are favorable for severe storms this evening" its like NO ****, I knew that before I read this!

 

Not liking the look of next week so far.  GFS a perfect hit (walking the line) and the Euro is too far north (despite the weenie maps having 15" for CMH )

 

as far as ILN....thanks for the answer.   I notice they also put out an early afternoon update which never really updates anything other than the hours between noon and 6pm.   Maybe this is why they hold off on the later update longer?    Either way, it's just annoying when there's a potential event in the offing and they come out with their AFD at 5pm.   Maybe they aren't confident enough to lead the way, so they have to wait for surrounding offices to go first....the old 'coordination excuse'.

[buckeye]

Chris Bradley mentioned next week's storm on FB. We are doomed.

 

I wish I had a dime for every time I've heard the local mets make the statement that today will be the warmest day in the next10 days.  Apparently they have a naïve confidence that the storm next week won't cut..... .....it may not, but I sure as heck would put that caveat in my forecast if I were a central ohio met.

[vespasian70]

I wish I had a dime for every time I've heard the local mets make the statement that today will be the warmest day in the next10 days.  Apparently they have a naïve confidence that the storm next week won't cut..... .....it may not, but I sure as heck would put that caveat in my forecast if I were a central ohio met.

Yes, the hubris of some amazes me.

 

We will have to wait until it's in king NAM's range to get a better idea where this may be going. If the GFS and Euro look good for us but the NAM shows a cutter, I'm out.

[buckeye]

SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT TIMES ON THURSDAY...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH. SOME SNOW
SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...CONTAINING BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW.
THESE SQUALLS MAY COMBINE WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL HAZARDS.

 

Next week will take care of itself, good or bad....in the meantime...Looking forward to some squallage action tomorrow....maybe again on Saturday.  

[buckeye]

Yes, the hubris of some amazes me.

 

We will have to wait until it's in king NAM's range to get a better idea where this may be going. If the GFS and Euro look good for us but the NAM shows a cutter, I'm out.

 

lol ain't that the truth.   We all bash the nam, but if every model is lining up to give you a snowstorm and the nam moves too far north inside of 36 hours....it's almost certain game over.

[JayPSU]

I see no reason to go against the seasonal trend.  If it becomes a more amplified storm, I firmly believe we see rain.

[pondo1000]

I see no reason to go against the seasonal trend.  If it becomes a more amplified storm, I firmly believe we see rain.

Agreed, climatology, climatology, climatology.........

[JayPSU]

Agreed, climatology, climatology, climatology.........

Yep.  I don't care how cold the air mass that precedes it or follows it is, if this thing amplifies even a little bit, it's going to be a Toledo runner and nail Chicago to Detroit again.  You can bank on it.  We have to hope for a strung out turd that gives us 3-5" at most.

[pondo1000]

Yep.  I don't care how cold the air mass that precedes it or follows it is, if this thing amplifies even a little bit, it's going to be a Toledo runner and nail Chicago to Detroit again.  You can bank on it.  We have to hope for a strung out turd that gives us 3-5" at most.

Yep. It's so tough to get a "big one" in these parts w/ where we are geographically. No coincidence that we reside in something called the Ohio VALLEY.

[dilly84]

Yep. I don't care how cold the air mass that precedes it or follows it is, if this thing amplifies even a little bit, it's going to be a Toledo runner and nail Chicago to Detroit again. You can bank on it. We have to hope for a strung out turd that gives us 3-5" at most.

Really it is climatology. But there is one simple fact if you want a monster this is the setup we have to have. So I'll take the chance on ending up rain if it yields the opportunity to see a foot or more. It's our only chance to see a foot

[iluvsnow]

...and speaking of a foot...the 12 Z GFS says here you go Ohio!

[jbcmh81]

The I-70 corridor is really the farthest north that has not seen a large storm this winter.  And I bet that remains true.  There's nothing to prevent any storm with southern stream influence from heading north. 

[dilly84]

Yep. I'd agree. I sent buckeye a message 40 minutes ago telling him to start the storm thread to change up the luck but Chicago storm started it 20 minutes after lol. Wouldn't be shocked at a Chi-Det winner here.

[dilly84]

Needless to say won't be using the storm thread now, like last time it'll be flooded with northern posters wanting to argue with us i70 guys anytime we make a comment. Lol.

February 17-19 Snowmageddon discuss here haha

[buckeye]

if we get screwed, we get screwed, but I'm not willing to throw in the towel because the only widespread snow storm of the season to affect the subforum went north of us.   One storm does not make a pattern, (and I admit I was guilty of thinking the same thing).  Before the last debacle all we've had are clipper systems.   The one other snowstorm, the one in November, actually did better for places like KY.  

Ask Boston about seasonal patterns.   Jan23rd they had  4" on the season.  It's not like the indices suddenly changed for them but not for us.

 

I agree the best case scenario for us is what the gfs showed today.   A strung out low in a couple of pieces riding the baroclinic zone.  I don't agree that we need a strong low for a lot of moisture.   With the gulf opening up we aren't going to need...or want...a sub 1000mb low cranking northeast to get a good dump.

 

All that being said, it's a similar set up to the debacle storm....but it's not exact.  Players are in different positions and different strengths.  It's all about timing of all of them.  I still think it won't be until 00z Sunday before we have a pretty good, (general), idea what this looks like it's going to do.  By then the models will be able to factor the weekend clipper in better.  If nothing else we may at least know whether we're dealing with a strong single system or a baroclinic overrunning situation.

 

Until then, I think a southern slider is just as likely as a Toledo cutter

[buckeye]

Yep. I'd agree. I sent buckeye a message 40 minutes ago telling him to start the storm thread to change up the luck but Chicago storm started it 20 minutes after lol. Wouldn't be shocked at a Chi-Det winner here.

 

haha I just read that.   I have no prob with one of the LAF guys starting it.  They were in the same boat we were in with the last storm, maybe good luck for them is good luck for us...

[buckeye]

probably best to keep storm discussions for the central and southern OH crew in here vs. main thread.  I feel like it becomes a tug of war with 3 people on one end of the rope and 20 on the other.    Nothing personal, it's just the way it is.  A snowstorm for them is a rainstorm for us and a snowstorm for us is a whiff for them.  

 

Besides I don't want to get chastised for posting the JMA when it's all we got left

[buckeye]

euro just gave all of us sweating a north trend, quite a bit of breathing room.   It's morphed into 2 pieces coming out.  The first one shears east and south, the second one on it's tail looks like a baby app runner.     I think the low bombing off of Boston at 96 hrs is what's causing the initial suppression.   Further evidence that clipper is critical to what happens next week.

[pondo1000]

euro just gave all of us sweating a north trend, quite a bit of breathing room.   It's morphed into 2 pieces coming out.  The first one shears east and south, the second one on it's tail looks like a baby app runner.     I think the low bombing off of Boston at 96 hrs is what's causing the initial suppression.   Further evidence that clipper is critical to what happens next week.

Remember how the March '08 storm came in 2 waves? I know this is not the same animal, but if we can grab something on the first (if not too far south) & then more on the 2nd, I'd be happy.

[buckeye]

Remember how the March '08 storm came in 2 waves? I know this is not the same animal, but if we can grab something on the first (if not too far south) & then more on the 2nd, I'd be happy.

 

haha, you got my curiosity going so I looked back at those maps.....it's quite a bit of a different set up....but I like your thinking. 

 

whatever happens with the storm tues/wed next week, at 240 the euro  has another storm gathering in the southern plains with solid cold HP firmly entrenched across the north, (something we've desperately been missing).  Looks like a major overrunning event possible.    We are entering one heck of an interesting period.  

[buckeye]

ILN  still scraping the egg off their faces from the last one apparently:

 

THE NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY IS BEING PROGGED TO COME FROM THE GULF
STATES AND THE TN VALLEY AND BE WELL AHEAD OF THE POSITIVE TILTED
L/W TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.  THIS LEADS ME TO NOTE THAT THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS PROMISING MUCH SNOW IN THE REGION WERE OF SIMILAR
ORIGIN WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TANKS
FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO IN THE FORECAST BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINTER EVENT OVER THE REGION.

 

I like that wording, "potential for a winter event over the region".   Gee going out on a limb like that takes some sack

[JayPSU]

ILN  still scraping the egg off their faces from the last one apparently:

 

THE NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY IS BEING PROGGED TO COME FROM THE GULF

STATES AND THE TN VALLEY AND BE WELL AHEAD OF THE POSITIVE TILTED

L/W TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.  THIS LEADS ME TO NOTE THAT THE

PREVIOUS SYSTEMS PROMISING MUCH SNOW IN THE REGION WERE OF SIMILAR

ORIGIN WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TANKS

FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO IN THE FORECAST BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A

WINTER EVENT OVER THE REGION.

 

I like that wording, "potential for a winter event over the region".   Gee going out on a limb like that takes some sack

Can't blame them.  As I said, I see no reason at all that this ends up differently than the Feb 1st one.

[snowlover2]

Can't blame them.  As I said, I see no reason at all that this ends up differently than the Feb 1st one.

This won't go that far north. Along I-70 or south will be the winners.

[buckeye]

Can't blame them.  As I said, I see no reason at all that this ends up differently than the Feb 1st one.

 

so one storm dictates what the next one does?    I mean I get your pessimism, trust me I'm as skeptical as you, (see my sig lol)....but there are solid reasons to believe this will be different.  Granted the difference could be how it screws us too...ie going south of us.

[buckeye]

18z gfs is juicing up for Saturday

[pondo1000]

18z gfs is juicing up for Saturday

12z did as well compared 2 previous runs. That may be our snow even though not much. The stronger that one is the more south w/ the one next wk probably.