JayPSU Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 For a brief moment there it was looking as if might see a back loaded winter. Right now it looks like the kind of winter that drags on forever with rain book ended by cold weather. It's going to be miserable, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Lol...what a steaming pile on the 12Z GFS. Missed to the north, Missed to the north, missed to the south, and then a train of storms going to our north which takes us to at least day 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 So yeah, it's 41F now when precip actually gets here. When all is said and done tonight, we'll just have wet roads. Oh, and then we go back into the freezer and dry air. This winter can't end fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 You know things are bad when you can't tell the difference between this thread and the complaint/banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 So yeah, it's 41F now when precip actually gets here. When all is said and done tonight, we'll just have wet roads. Oh, and then we go back into the freezer and dry air. This winter can't end fast enough.The roads are covered over here. As soon as precip started, the temperature dropped drastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 ILN bumped the forecast tonight, now calling for 1"-2". Perhaps the 18Z GFS persuaded them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 If were not in line for any storms in the next 10 days///BRING ON SPRING!!! so sick of this crap!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I was just going thru the gfs 00z long range and it looks consistently, relentlessly cold thru 384 and yet every significant precip event scattered throughout is primarily rain.... . It finds a way to interrupt a stretch of single digit temps long enough to rain, and then get cold again. You almost have to believe....just on odds alone...that something is finally gonna break our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Ended up with 1.5". Probably the last measurable snow for a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I was just going thru the gfs 00z long range and it looks consistently, relentlessly cold thru 384 and yet every significant precip event scattered throughout is primarily rain.... . It finds a way to interrupt a stretch of single digit temps long enough to rain, and then get cold again. You almost have to believe....just on odds alone...that something is finally gonna break our way. Days and days of rain freezing up on subfreezing surfaces for the first hour it precipitates.... We've had at least 2 or 3 storms this winter that ended up that way in Pitt one way or another. Hopefully the medium range changes up and we can at least see some of those systems cut underneath us for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 First measurable snow last night since November. Less than 1/2 an inch. Here's hoping for an early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 First measurable snow last night since November. Less than 1/2 an inch. Here's hoping for an early spring. wow....you missed out on those 2 forum-wide clippers??? The Ohio Valley has really been the epicenter of the screw job this winter.....exactly where weatherbell had their greatest above normal departures for snow this winter... ie my sig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 wow....you missed out on those 2 forum-wide clippers??? The Ohio Valley has really been the epicenter of the screw job this winter.....exactly where weatherbell had their greatest above normal departures for snow this winter... ie my sig Yeah, the clippers have been passing just north of us with just some backside flurries. Would love to see a composite of the snow so far this winter to get a real sense of just how bad it's been here. Kentucky has had a few snows that we didn't get that passed just to the south. We did have 6 inches in November so I guess we have that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 looks like another sleepy period coming up. I'm issuing a Heavy Z Watch for the next 10 days. I just flipped thru the (always generous) wxbell snowfall maps of the euro and the ggem. Basically nothing for the entire subforum outside our Canadian posters and extreme northeastern fringe posters thru day 10. At day 10 the euro and ggem look very similar with a crushing HP system centered over the lakes. Assuming that is correct, we all know the progression from there. HP slides east as a storm gathers in the southern plains and we go from arctic cold to cold rain. This now takes us to beyond mid Feb. I don't think it's a dramatic stretch to say the fat lady of winter is warming up in the green room. On a positive note. I've had some great sleep lately. No longer compelled to stay up to see what the 00z runs are doing....perfectly fine waiting til my morning coffee to check them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherzen Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 What amazes me is that when the long range models call for a snowy pattern they're wrong, but when they show boring or rain you can take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 What amazes me is that when the long range models call for a snowy pattern they're wrong, but when they show boring or rain you can take it to the bank. I was just thinking the same thing yesterday. Why is that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 just a god awful weather pattern gfs 12z text output for next 384 hours: .24 snow .40 rain scattered throughout the timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 just a god awful weather pattern gfs 12z text output for next 384 hours: .24 snow .40 rain scattered throughout the timeframe Bring on spring!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Bring on spring!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Bring on spring!!! I'll pass!! Bring on the Severe season!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I was just thinking the same thing yesterday. Why is that?? Calm weather is easy to predict. Throw in a bunch of waves/storms, and you have quite a bit more of a mess to deal with (even for the computers) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The GFS ens (GEFS) and Euro ens (EPS) actually are in some agreement through the next couple weeks. The eastern US trough is centered over New England through at least the 15-16th. That is why I do not believe the GFS runs that continue to just flood the arctic air and send that -20C 850mb isotherm through most of Ohio at the end of this week. I believe the -20C line runs through extreme NE Ohio at the worst. Still cold here at the end of the week? Yes! Still arctic air? Yes! But is the worst of it centered over us? No.Also, this is a bad pattern for snow (obviously) because all of these systems are very northern stream dominant with a low near or north of us.However, as the trough south of the Aleutian Islands deepens (supported by GFS and Euro ensembles) this will sharpen the ridge, or further amplify the jet stream, over Alaska and force the the ridge axis farther west. When this happens, we should see the mean trough over the eastern US jump back to the west. Again, both models ensemble means show this happening and likely between the 17th-20th.The Euro ensemble mean total snowfall also has a nice jump across the OV with some of the individual members showing big-time amounts through the area. That DOES NOT MEAN we get a major snow here of course. The delivery of the serious cold around that time could come from a northern stream dominant wave that has too much warm air ahead of it.What I do like is the weak trough off the west coast of Mexico which may send pieces of energy via the sub-tropical jet into the eastern US trough. That is why a nice Gulf of Mexico low pressure system is plausible in the 17th-20th range. Whether is cuts west (possible thanks to lack of Atlantic blocking), runs up the apps, or stays more coastal is still up in the air. At this range, there is no way to tell and the deterministic runs of the GFS/Euro will continue to fluctuate significantly. But I think that is a good target range for a big storm somewhere in the eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 a new week, and the players are gathering on the field to once again begin the game of disappointment. So what are the plays?: -clipper Thurs -clipper Saturday -hearbreak system early next week let the game begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 a new week, and the players are gathering on the field to once again begin the game of disappointment. So what are plays?: -clipper Thurs -clipper Saturday -hearbreak system early next week let the game begin At this point I'd just bet on it hitting Boston. Lol. 3 mondays, 3 major storms and we can't get more then 3". IF we get a major system, I wouldn't bet on it til the end of the month / March when it'll melt the next day. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 a new week, and the players are gathering on the field to once again begin the game of disappointment. So what are the plays?: -clipper Thurs -clipper Saturday -hearbreak system early next week let the game begin Time is running out. I hope something clicks for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I expect a blockbuster storm for OH anywhere from the 20 thru about the 26th. Why? I will be out in California during that time, so I would miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Yup, next week is make or break time. Thursday's clipper will be to far north and irrelevant outside some snow showers. The next clipper that comes in Sunday is interesting though the european is the only one with a nice trough right now. Then the energy from it pops a pac ridge, which is pretty far out from caring about the surface maps, but has similarities to past big phases at 500mb. Either post 20th we are above average snowfall or just sucking wind and hoping for 60 by late February. I think if we miss next week due to the storm going north of us and end up with a rainer, then winter is TRULY over at that point. If we can't get out from under storms tracking to our north with so much cold air in and around, then clearly this winter was never meant to be. If, however, we miss the storm next week due to suppression or shearing out....we may still have a shot of something later on. that's my story, I'm sticking to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I think if we miss next week due to the storm going north of us and end up with a rainer, then winter is TRULY over at that point. If we can't get out from under storms tracking to our north with so much cold air in and around, then clearly this winter was never meant to be. If, however, we miss the storm next week due to suppression or shearing out....we may still have a shot of something later on. that's my story, I'm sticking to it. wouldn't it be nice to see what's happening to Worcester, MA happen here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 wouldn't it be nice to see what's happening to Worcester, MA happen here you know, I've been thinking about that....and honestly it's getting pretty close to what I would consider too much, even for me. I mean, as a homeowner there are a lot of concerns I would start having. Imagine what happens if all this snow ends with a rainstorm?....what a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 ok, I have a question that I've wondered about for awhile...maybe there's someone in the know who can answer this. Why the hell is ILN ALWAYS the last office to update their AFD? The weird thing is it's always been like that, for as long as I can remember, no matter who is writing it. Is there some kind of protocol or logistical reason? Offices all around us issue their AFDs between 3 and 330. ILN rarely has one out before 4:15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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