Steve Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 watch this weekend.... ...that is all Nope...not even an eye!! I had both feet in and both eyes wide open for this past disaster!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 watch this weekend.... ...that is all Looked like rain, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 This is the Euro snow map stolen from the New England forum for the next 205 hours off the noon Monday 12z run. New England will be ground zero for the start of the next ice age. Oh...don't even look at Ohio...you know that will move north as time advances.... http://i61.tinypic.com/15mgq6g.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 possible accum snow with arctic front wed night/thurs....most models showing this. euro is now digging the weekend storm further south and has a 998 over WV hr 156 blowing it up off the coast. trend north? maybe, but right now it's trending south. Digging is the trend, the problem is if it digs too far west it heads further north. We want it to dig further east. Right now euro shows that. Will it change? yes Just throw'n it all on the table. Point is, there is at least stuff to watch, as soon as Wednesday night. I'm not getting vested, just watching from afar until inside 24 hrs lol. There's my glass half full lecture for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 This is the Euro snow map stolen from the New England forum for the next 205 hours off the noon Monday 12z run. New England will be ground zero for the start of the next ice age. Oh...don't even look at Ohio...you know that will move north as time advances.... http://i61.tinypic.com/15mgq6g.jpg Whoa thats insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 This is the Euro snow map stolen from the New England forum for the next 205 hours off the noon Monday 12z run. New England will be ground zero for the start of the next ice age. Oh...don't even look at Ohio...you know that will move north as time advances.... http://i61.tinypic.com/15mgq6g.jpg Is that map accurate? The site I go to get the Euro's output doesn't depict anything close to that for us in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Is that map accurate? The site I go to get the Euro's output doesn't depict anything close to that for us in Ohio. this is wxbell's looks about the same. A few crazy individual ens. members showing 2'+ on the ground by day 10 for central OH .....in other words, congrats Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Is that map accurate? The site I go to get the Euro's output doesn't depict anything close to that for us in Ohio. Yep sure is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 .in other words, congrats Detroit This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Lol.. You guys are killing me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 this is wxbell's looks about the same. A few crazy individual ens. members showing 2'+ on the ground by day 10 for central OH .....in other words, congrats Detroit Omg a max of 95.1 lol. Where? I'd travel to see that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 this is wxbell's looks about the same. A few crazy individual ens. members showing 2'+ on the ground by day 10 for central OH .....in other words, congrats Detroit The snow pack to the north should work in our favor. I hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 This week might feel like deja vu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 this is wxbell's looks about the same. A few crazy individual ens. members showing 2'+ on the ground by day 10 for central OH .....in other words, congrats Detroit Yeah the sight I look at wasn't updated yet. Looks like this 1 phases later so we may miss by being too far west vs too far south. Can't win...or maybe, just maybe a blind squirrel can find a nut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Chris Bradley to the rescue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Yeah, none of that's going to happen. Same areas will get hit and we'll miss out, either north or south- likely north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The 06Z NAM came in a bit juicer for the Wed night clipper. Looks like we might be able to cover up the glaciers in our yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Bradley still beating the snow drums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 What a complete and total snooze fest on the 12Z GFS run today. No major storms for AT LEAST the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 ...and the EURO....like Buckeye said would happen yesterday...becomes a Michigan and Detroit special for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 ...and the EURO....like Buckeye said would happen yesterday...becomes a Michigan and Detroit special for this weekend. The euro is so crappy this year I wouldn't lock anything in yet. But yea, not a good sign if it caved to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Climo wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The 18Z GFS trended colder with the weekend system. Just something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 yea, the euro OP was north but the ensemble is way south. I'm not convinced a north trend is a given with this one. A mean track hasn't even been set by the models, so we don't even have a starting point to guess on future trends. The argument for a north trend, assuming the track is a mean of the OP runs today, would be recent climo and the nao still being positive. The argument against it is this is a different animal then the storm this past weekend. Everything has shifted east. The cold high to the north is centered much further east north of the lakes vs over SDakota. If this digs more, like the weekend storm , the result could also be that it would cut under us. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying we're in a good spot, nor am I saying a miss to the north isn't possible...it absolutely is. I just think there are other equally possible ways to get screwed including this thing missing us to the southwest, or diving in over top of us, and watching it blow up on the midatlantic coast....(which is what the 18z gfs was showing). A looooong way to go on this one.... top, euro ens middle ggem op, bottom ukmet op, (which by the way nailed the weekend storm from this far out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Thanks buckeye. A nice dose of your prudent insight is needed. I'm with you thinking this is way up in the air. Nice to see the ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 yea, the euro OP was north but the ensemble is way south. I'm not convinced a north trend is a given with this one. A mean track hasn't even been set by the models, so we don't even have a starting point to guess on future trends. The argument for a north trend, assuming the track is a mean of the OP runs today, would be recent climo and the nao still being positive. The argument against it is this is a different animal then the storm this past weekend. Everything has shifted east. The cold high to the north is centered much further east north of the lakes vs over SDakota. If this digs more, like the weekend storm , the result could also be that it would cut under us. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying we're in a good spot, nor am I saying a miss to the north isn't possible...it absolutely is. I just think there are other equally possible ways to get screwed including this thing missing us to the southwest, or diving in over top of us, and watching it blow up on the midatlantic coast....(which is what the 18z gfs was showing). A looooong way to go on this one.... top, euro ens middle ggem op, bottom ukmet op, (which by the way nailed the weekend storm from this far out) One thing we learned last weekend...don't trust the models outside of 72-84 hours. We were in the bullseye just 96 hours out 4 goodness sakes & look what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I don't want to be a Debbie Downer and I haven't had time to check out the models this morning, but IND's morning disco is ominous: STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IS MAKINGTHIS LOOK LIKE MORE OF A RAIN EVENT. HAD TO MOVE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE FARTHER NORTH WITH RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I don't want to be a Debbie Downer and I haven't had time to check out the models this morning, but IND's morning disco is ominous: STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IS MAKINGTHIS LOOK LIKE MORE OF A RAIN EVENT. HAD TO MOVE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE FARTHER NORTH WITH RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. You're not a DD, we can all read the models. But yea, it looks like a hot mess system right now. It's not even an issue of north trend vs. south trend, it's whether there really even is a system to track.....also warm air ahead of any system etc. The models try to deepen and sharpen the trough just to our east enough to get a low together but by the time that happens it looks to be too late. East and north seem to be the best chance for anything. Then again who knows what the 12z will look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Meanwhile, ILN has lowered snow amounts for the I-70 corridor for the clipper. My call of 20" or less for the season is looking great right now. Spring can't get here fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Meanwhile, ILN has lowered snow amounts for the I-70 corridor for the clipper. My call of 20" or less for the season is looking great right now. Spring can't get here fast enough. So far the glass half full doesn't seem to be working. Once it's confirmed in all the modeling that the week ahead is indeed going to turn into a another steaming pile of winter crap....I will shed my snowstorm hunting gear and put on my torch hunting gear. Hopefully JB is as wrong about his prediction of a long drawn out end to winter as he was with our snowfall predictions all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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