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Let's talk Winter!


Steve

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Well holy cow! Trend still out friend here, no?

 

I still think 1-3" is really good call with 3" being more likely than 1"    One thing we have going for us is the ground is going to be cold with the brunt of it very late Sunday night into early morning Monday.

 

Sounds like ILN is going for 2-4" along I-71

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Since you guys have missed me, I'll throw out some November stats.

 

Top 20 Snowiest

1. 1950: 15.2"

2. 1880: 12.7"

3. 1966: 10.4"

4. 1920: 8.2"

5. 1913: 7.5"

6. 1891: 7.1"
7. 1886: 6.9"

8. 1967: 6.5"

9. 1892, 1972: 6.3"

10. 1958: 6.2"

11. 1900: 6.1"

12. 1955: 5.1"

13: 1894, 1971: 5.0"

14. 2013: 4.7"

15. 1924: 4.0"

16. 1887, 1936: 3.6"

17: 1959: 3.5"

18: 1903: 3.2"

19: 1931, 1976, 2002: 3.1"

20. 1911, 1953, 1992: 3.0"

 

So there is potential for this November to break into the top 20 snowiest with the weekend storm and perhaps more around Thanksgiving now that the warm-up is being toned down.

 

Top 20 Coldest Novembers

1. 1880: 32.8

2. 1976: 33.9

3. 1967: 36.6

4. 1951: 36.7

5. 1910, 1950: 37.0

6. 1966: 37.4

7. 1995: 37.7

8. 1892, 1903, 1911, 1936: 38.3

9. 1901: 38.6

10. 1886: 38.8

11. 1894: 39.0

12. 1969: 39.3

13. 1959: 39.5

14. 1898: 39.6

15. 1929, 1955: 39.9

16. 1891, 1893: 40.0

17. 1907, 1997: 40.1

18. 1937: 40.2

19. 1917, 1926: 40.3

20. 1971: 40.4

 

Through yesterday, November 2014 is at 42.8.  There is definitely potential it could crack into the top 20 coldest as well, especially if we don't see any major warmup. 

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Since you guys have missed me, I'll throw out some November stats.

Top 20 Snowiest

1. 1950: 15.2"

2. 1880: 12.7"

3. 1966: 10.4"

4. 1920: 8.2"

5. 1913: 7.5"

6. 1891: 7.1"

7. 1886: 6.9"

8. 1967: 6.5"

9. 1892, 1972: 6.3"

10. 1958: 6.2"

11. 1900: 6.1"

12. 1955: 5.1"

13: 1894, 1971: 5.0"

14. 2013: 4.7"

15. 1924: 4.0"

16. 1887, 1936: 3.6"

17: 1959: 3.5"

18: 1903: 3.2"

19: 1931, 1976, 2002: 3.1"

20. 1911, 1953, 1992: 3.0"

So there is potential for this November to break into the top 20 snowiest with the weekend storm and perhaps more around Thanksgiving now that the warm-up is being toned down.

Top 20 Coldest Novembers

1. 1880: 32.8

2. 1976: 33.9

3. 1967: 36.6

4. 1951: 36.7

5. 1910, 1950: 37.0

6. 1966: 37.4

7. 1995: 37.7

8. 1892, 1903, 1911, 1936: 38.3

9. 1901: 38.6

10. 1886: 38.8

11. 1894: 39.0

12. 1969: 39.3

13. 1959: 39.5

14. 1898: 39.6

15. 1929, 1955: 39.9

16. 1891, 1893: 40.0

17. 1907, 1997: 40.1

18. 1937: 40.2

19. 1917, 1926: 40.3

20. 1971: 40.4

Through yesterday, November 2014 is at 42.8. There is definitely potential it could crack into the top 20 coldest as well, especially if we don't see any major warmup.

Good stuff as always! Thx man!
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thanks jb,

don't be a stranger, the Ohio crowd is heavy on weenie, (including myself), and a little too light on meteorology and stats....  we need your kind around.

 

I'm not even going to attempt a guess this winter.  Definitely hard to bet against practically everyone calling for more snow and colder....it just seems when everyone is thinking the same thing, that's when everyone ends up getting humbled.   We'll see.  Hopefully this thread exceeds the length of last winter.

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I still think 1-3" is really good call with 3" being more likely than 1" One thing we have going for us is the ground is going to be cold with the brunt of it very late Sunday night into early morning Monday.

Sounds like ILN is going for 2-4" along I-71

Sounds good to me so far. That Euro run was very likely a fluke run. It has been bouncing around the past few runs pretty bad.
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well the 12z gfs, nam, ggem are in.  Throw them in a blender with last nights euro and there seems to be strong consensus for 3-5" across  CMH with the axis of heaviest about halfway between CMH and the river. NAM the exception being furthest nw to the point of screwing southeastern OH and putting the axis of heaviest just to our nw.  The NAM is the NAM

 

I think what will really help is this starting off and falling mostly at dark into the morning.   That alone is probably worth 1.5-2", vs. if it were a daytime event.   If we can get a snow cover, Tuesday/Wednesday morning low temps could be fun to watch.

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The other thing Buckeye that is highly unusual for this year is the ground is frozen. I was really surprised on my morning dog walk to see the results of two unfortunate irrigation system breaks. Where the water overflowed onto the pavement...it was frozen solid. That tells me that with the ground below freezing...and little warm-up before the event...this should be an easy stick to even pavement Sunday night. 

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The other thing Buckeye that is highly unusual for this year is the ground is frozen. I was really surprised on my morning dog walk to see the results of two unfortunate irrigation system breaks. Where the water overflowed onto the pavement...it was frozen solid. That tells me that with the ground below freezing...and little warm-up before the event...this should be an easy stick to even pavement Sunday night. 

 

agree.   Just got done cleaning my gutters, (which I normally don't do until the end of NOV), but I had to use a screwdriver to chip out the ice in places.   Way too early for this.  Unfortunately my nasty giant silver maple still has about a 1/4 of it's leaves which means I'm going to have to do it again... :angry:

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Buckeye, I may have to call bogus on the extra later on.  It has surface temps several degrees above freezing for all of that precip. 

I'm not sure if it's wxbell's precip type algorithms that are wrong or what, but when I had it last winter it showed 10:1 ratio snow on the Euro when the temp profiles clearly supported rain, and this happened more than once.

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ILN:

 

NONETHELESS...DESPITE THESE CONCERNS...AFTER ALL THE MATH WAS DONE
(SNOW RATIOS / QPF / TEMPERATURE TIMING) THE NEW TOTALS CAME OUT
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACROSS THE ILN
CWA...THIS ALLOWS FOR THE HIGHEST TOTALS TO OCCUR ON AN AXIS FROM
CARROLL COUNTY KENTUCKY TO LICKING COUNTY OHIO...ON THE
INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR. ALONG THIS STRETCH OF COUNTIES...CURRENT
FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS THAT UP TO THREE INCHES IS A REASONABLE
FORECAST...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WPC
GRAPHICS / SREF PLOTS / GFS-SOUNDING-BASED COBB DATA SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD 4-INCH SNOWFALL...THOUGH THIS WILL
NOT BE USED IN THE FORECAST TODAY. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER NORTH (DUE TO LESS FAVORABLE FORCING) AND FURTHER SOUTH
(DUE TO A GREATER MIX WITH RAIN). WHILE IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT
ADVISORIES WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...COLLABORATION WITH THE
MAJORITY OF SURROUNDING OFFICES REVEALED SIMILAR CONCERNS WITH THE
TEMPERATURE ISSUES...AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PIGEONHOLE
SPECIFIC HEADLINE PRODUCTS 24-36 HOURS OUT.

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I'm not sure if it's wxbell's precip type algorithms that are wrong or what, but when I had it last winter it showed 10:1 ratio snow on the Euro when the temp profiles clearly supported rain, and this happened more than once.

Yes same here, they can be wonky. Which is why I always investigate further with the "old school" method of determining it yourself lol
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Hi All, my first time back in the forum since last winter.  Kind of scary doing the winter snow thing in mid November!!!  Might be a long hard winter ahead!

 

Mike

Welcome back.

Ganahl says 8 degrees for Tuesday morning low. Wow. That has to be a record for earliest single digit temp if it verifies?

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