pondo1000 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 wxbell 00z euroWell holy cow! Trend still out friend here, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Well holy cow! Trend still out friend here, no? I still think 1-3" is really good call with 3" being more likely than 1" One thing we have going for us is the ground is going to be cold with the brunt of it very late Sunday night into early morning Monday. Sounds like ILN is going for 2-4" along I-71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 I still think 1-3" is really good call with 3" being more likely than 1" One thing we have going for us is the ground is going to be cold with the brunt of it very late Sunday night into early morning Monday. Sounds like ILN is going for 2-4" along I-71 I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Since you guys have missed me, I'll throw out some November stats. Top 20 Snowiest 1. 1950: 15.2" 2. 1880: 12.7" 3. 1966: 10.4" 4. 1920: 8.2" 5. 1913: 7.5" 6. 1891: 7.1"7. 1886: 6.9" 8. 1967: 6.5" 9. 1892, 1972: 6.3" 10. 1958: 6.2" 11. 1900: 6.1" 12. 1955: 5.1" 13: 1894, 1971: 5.0" 14. 2013: 4.7" 15. 1924: 4.0" 16. 1887, 1936: 3.6" 17: 1959: 3.5" 18: 1903: 3.2" 19: 1931, 1976, 2002: 3.1" 20. 1911, 1953, 1992: 3.0" So there is potential for this November to break into the top 20 snowiest with the weekend storm and perhaps more around Thanksgiving now that the warm-up is being toned down. Top 20 Coldest Novembers 1. 1880: 32.8 2. 1976: 33.9 3. 1967: 36.6 4. 1951: 36.7 5. 1910, 1950: 37.0 6. 1966: 37.4 7. 1995: 37.7 8. 1892, 1903, 1911, 1936: 38.3 9. 1901: 38.6 10. 1886: 38.8 11. 1894: 39.0 12. 1969: 39.3 13. 1959: 39.5 14. 1898: 39.6 15. 1929, 1955: 39.9 16. 1891, 1893: 40.0 17. 1907, 1997: 40.1 18. 1937: 40.2 19. 1917, 1926: 40.3 20. 1971: 40.4 Through yesterday, November 2014 is at 42.8. There is definitely potential it could crack into the top 20 coldest as well, especially if we don't see any major warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Since you guys have missed me, I'll throw out some November stats. Top 20 Snowiest 1. 1950: 15.2" 2. 1880: 12.7" 3. 1966: 10.4" 4. 1920: 8.2" 5. 1913: 7.5" 6. 1891: 7.1" 7. 1886: 6.9" 8. 1967: 6.5" 9. 1892, 1972: 6.3" 10. 1958: 6.2" 11. 1900: 6.1" 12. 1955: 5.1" 13: 1894, 1971: 5.0" 14. 2013: 4.7" 15. 1924: 4.0" 16. 1887, 1936: 3.6" 17: 1959: 3.5" 18: 1903: 3.2" 19: 1931, 1976, 2002: 3.1" 20. 1911, 1953, 1992: 3.0" So there is potential for this November to break into the top 20 snowiest with the weekend storm and perhaps more around Thanksgiving now that the warm-up is being toned down. Top 20 Coldest Novembers 1. 1880: 32.8 2. 1976: 33.9 3. 1967: 36.6 4. 1951: 36.7 5. 1910, 1950: 37.0 6. 1966: 37.4 7. 1995: 37.7 8. 1892, 1903, 1911, 1936: 38.3 9. 1901: 38.6 10. 1886: 38.8 11. 1894: 39.0 12. 1969: 39.3 13. 1959: 39.5 14. 1898: 39.6 15. 1929, 1955: 39.9 16. 1891, 1893: 40.0 17. 1907, 1997: 40.1 18. 1937: 40.2 19. 1917, 1926: 40.3 20. 1971: 40.4 Through yesterday, November 2014 is at 42.8. There is definitely potential it could crack into the top 20 coldest as well, especially if we don't see any major warmup. Good stuff as always! Thx man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 thanks jb, don't be a stranger, the Ohio crowd is heavy on weenie, (including myself), and a little too light on meteorology and stats.... we need your kind around. I'm not even going to attempt a guess this winter. Definitely hard to bet against practically everyone calling for more snow and colder....it just seems when everyone is thinking the same thing, that's when everyone ends up getting humbled. We'll see. Hopefully this thread exceeds the length of last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 I still think 1-3" is really good call with 3" being more likely than 1" One thing we have going for us is the ground is going to be cold with the brunt of it very late Sunday night into early morning Monday. Sounds like ILN is going for 2-4" along I-71 Sounds good to me so far. That Euro run was very likely a fluke run. It has been bouncing around the past few runs pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 well the 12z gfs, nam, ggem are in. Throw them in a blender with last nights euro and there seems to be strong consensus for 3-5" across CMH with the axis of heaviest about halfway between CMH and the river. NAM the exception being furthest nw to the point of screwing southeastern OH and putting the axis of heaviest just to our nw. The NAM is the NAM I think what will really help is this starting off and falling mostly at dark into the morning. That alone is probably worth 1.5-2", vs. if it were a daytime event. If we can get a snow cover, Tuesday/Wednesday morning low temps could be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 The other thing Buckeye that is highly unusual for this year is the ground is frozen. I was really surprised on my morning dog walk to see the results of two unfortunate irrigation system breaks. Where the water overflowed onto the pavement...it was frozen solid. That tells me that with the ground below freezing...and little warm-up before the event...this should be an easy stick to even pavement Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 euro holds serve...might have even ticked up a bit. edit: ticked down....a couple tenths of an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 euro holds serve...might have even ticked up a bit. Kind of hard to buy the ECMWF. Totals just seem overdone. I think 3-4" is possible. Not seeing 6-7". Either way though this is pretty cool to have a system to track this early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 The other thing Buckeye that is highly unusual for this year is the ground is frozen. I was really surprised on my morning dog walk to see the results of two unfortunate irrigation system breaks. Where the water overflowed onto the pavement...it was frozen solid. That tells me that with the ground below freezing...and little warm-up before the event...this should be an easy stick to even pavement Sunday night. agree. Just got done cleaning my gutters, (which I normally don't do until the end of NOV), but I had to use a screwdriver to chip out the ice in places. Way too early for this. Unfortunately my nasty giant silver maple still has about a 1/4 of it's leaves which means I'm going to have to do it again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Kind of hard to buy the ECMWF. Totals just seem overdone. I think 3-4" is possible. Not seeing 6-7". Either way though this is pretty cool to have a system to track this early in the season. yea, no other model is showing 6"....not even the nam lol, (which is telling). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 yea, no other model is showing 6"....not even the nam lol, (which is telling).Mayb he will be King again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 EEuro just seems overdone. I'd watch the others closely to see if they move that way at all. But 8" at this point seems too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 12z Euro is back in line after its little blip 0z mega run. I think 3-5" is looking solid for the I-71 gang. Possibly a little more SE of there if it doesn't mix too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 You guys near Columbus look good. I know I'm toast down here when even the Wxbell Euro maps start cutting amounts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 thru 168 the euro wants to make the rich...richer. Looks like it adds 2 or 3 next Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Buckeye, I may have to call bogus on the extra later on. It has surface temps several degrees above freezing for all of that precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Buckeye, I may have to call bogus on the extra later on. It has surface temps several degrees above freezing for all of that precip. I'm not sure if it's wxbell's precip type algorithms that are wrong or what, but when I had it last winter it showed 10:1 ratio snow on the Euro when the temp profiles clearly supported rain, and this happened more than once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Buckeye, I may have to call bogus on the extra later on. It has surface temps several degrees above freezing for all of that precip. yea I looked at Plymouth and thought the same thing. JB needs to reboot the computer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 18z NAM got wetter for you guys. Might be thermal issues in some places though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 18z NAM got wetter for you guys. Might be thermal issues in some places though. wouldn't be at all surprised if CMH south starts as a period of rain or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 ILN: NONETHELESS...DESPITE THESE CONCERNS...AFTER ALL THE MATH WAS DONE(SNOW RATIOS / QPF / TEMPERATURE TIMING) THE NEW TOTALS CAME OUTSLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACROSS THE ILNCWA...THIS ALLOWS FOR THE HIGHEST TOTALS TO OCCUR ON AN AXIS FROMCARROLL COUNTY KENTUCKY TO LICKING COUNTY OHIO...ON THEINTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR. ALONG THIS STRETCH OF COUNTIES...CURRENTFORECAST DATA SUGGESTS THAT UP TO THREE INCHES IS A REASONABLEFORECAST...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WPCGRAPHICS / SREF PLOTS / GFS-SOUNDING-BASED COBB DATA SUGGEST SOMEPOTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD 4-INCH SNOWFALL...THOUGH THIS WILLNOT BE USED IN THE FORECAST TODAY. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTEDFURTHER NORTH (DUE TO LESS FAVORABLE FORCING) AND FURTHER SOUTH(DUE TO A GREATER MIX WITH RAIN). WHILE IT SEEMS LIKELY THATADVISORIES WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...COLLABORATION WITH THEMAJORITY OF SURROUNDING OFFICES REVEALED SIMILAR CONCERNS WITH THETEMPERATURE ISSUES...AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PIGEONHOLESPECIFIC HEADLINE PRODUCTS 24-36 HOURS OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 I'm not sure if it's wxbell's precip type algorithms that are wrong or what, but when I had it last winter it showed 10:1 ratio snow on the Euro when the temp profiles clearly supported rain, and this happened more than once.Yes same here, they can be wonky. Which is why I always investigate further with the "old school" method of determining it yourself lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Can't say I argue too much with Andy over at ILN...we need to watch surface temps especially with a SOUTHWEST breeze blowing all the way until midnight per the GFS. Wouldn't be the first time models dropped temps too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 First radar hallucination of the season: I know it's supposed to weaken as it moves east, but it's holding together fairly well so far. Perhaps a few moderate squalls tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Hi All, my first time back in the forum since last winter. Kind of scary doing the winter snow thing in mid November!!! Might be a long hard winter ahead! Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Hi All, my first time back in the forum since last winter. Kind of scary doing the winter snow thing in mid November!!! Might be a long hard winter ahead! Mike Welcome back. Ganahl says 8 degrees for Tuesday morning low. Wow. That has to be a record for earliest single digit temp if it verifies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 First radar hallucination of the season: I know it's supposed to weaken as it moves east, but it's holding together fairly well so far. Perhaps a few moderate squalls tonight.Some light snow has made it to Athens...enough to dust car tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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