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Let's talk Winter!


Steve

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do you realize this is the second year in a row, that the first major widespread snowstorm to effect the subforum screws us by under 100 miles?  Remember last January 5th.   Although that one was more painful for some reason.

 

Gotta believe that somewhere out there on ma nature's date book is our karma storm.

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I'm not even good with the north part 100% I'm good on the euro and ggem. But the nam and gfs would only be 3-4" turning to rain.

 

oh trust me you're in better position than cmh.  But on the modeling, that wtod  is subtly starting to make a showing....that's when you need to be further north, the more east you are.

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Well, the good thing about the GFS is it's really not even close. Would suck to have slop here and 10" in Delaware. I've learned that clippers are really the only thing we do well with.

 

I honestly hope the euro blows north....   I can turn the lights out.  If that damn thing teases us and comes south...f*ck

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I trusted the euros short term consistency in NYC too

Different scenario. Pretty much every model showed that NYC wasn't going to get the brunt. In this case the rgem ggem and, if it holds course, the euro. It'd be more divided than nyc. Itd be hard to go against 4 solid runs for the ggem and euro. But you're the meterologist. I feel bad for you guys. I'm amateur and deal with crap. This storm and models could be a good case study for those citizens who criticize mets thinking it's so easy.

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gefs looks like the op. 996 to CMH....it actually gets the 850 pretty damn close to CLE

I'm over the gfs at this point. We know which way it's going. It's just going to make things a mess if the EURO comes in like the previous runs Especially if it shifts even the slightest bit south.
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on a side note...another big bastardi bust in the making.   Had axis of heaviest on I-70 for days....even this morning he insists the gfs will come south....went north at 12z lol.

 

CMH is right in the middle of where he highlighted his highest snowfall departure for his winter outlook....(167%).    He's got a lot of work to do.

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Writing is on the wall guys.  Once this thing was going to phase that far west it was over.  This thing is going big and I don't think the amped/north shift is completely done.

 

to be fair.  any poster in this subforum that found themselves in the same situation as we were in here in Central Ohio, would also be following all the models til the very end.   If they say otherwise, they're lying.  We are talking about 20 miles between rain and 10".  It's not like this was a Detroit cutter that we were willing southeast.  

You are correct however, it's over for a snowstorm in CMH and the question left is how far north

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to be fair. any poster in this subforum that found themselves in the same situation as we were in here in Central Ohio, would also be following all the models til the very end. If they say otherwise, they're lying. We are talking about 20 miles between rain and 10". It's not like this was a Detroit cutter that we were willing southeast.

You are correct however, it's over for a snowstorm in CMH and the question left is how far north

til that 12z EURO goes south lol. Seriously though, I agree. We haven't went with one model or another. But 2 of the major models have kept us in the game.
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to be fair.  any poster in this subforum that found themselves in the same situation as we were in here in Central Ohio, would also be following all the models til the very end.   If they say otherwise, they're lying.  We are talking about 20 miles between rain and 10".  It's not like this was a Detroit cutter that we were willing southeast.  

You are correct however, it's over for a snowstorm in CMH and the question left is how far north

Oh, for sure.  I was just bewailing our fate. :hug: Misery loves company and all that.  If this thing does go neg tilt, would that increase chances for maybe more moisture and snow on the backside?  Seem to remember a storm a few years back that was somewhat similar and the snow actually came in from the south.

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Oh, for sure.  I was just bewailing our fate. :hug: Misery loves company and all that.  If this thing does go neg tilt, would that increase chances for maybe more moisture and snow on the backside?  Seem to remember a storm a few years back that was somewhat similar and the snow actually came in from the south.

 

yea the lack of backside is another suckage factor.  Just like you said, the trough isn't negative enough to give us backside, yet it isn't positive enough to keep this thing from amping up too much.   Everything is perfect for a wall to wall screwjob.  I'm not even certain about frontend snow at this point.

 

I think indy could be in trouble for mixing but LAF is probably safe.   In fact a line from LAF to Akron, everyone nw of that is a solid snowstorm

 

This will screw us in a very similar manner to last winters Jan 5th debacle, except that had more of a sw to ne orientation.

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