dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 30 hr nam. definitely more south out west of us. Still a better push of the HP also. Not making much of a diff in the advance of the 850 0 line however. which is odd... Yea. Definitely south with the heaviest precipitation shield out to 33hrs. The 540 line is identical in position to 6z. Almost like it didn't update. I'm sure it did but the lines are identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 36 low is over southern IN 850 line jumps north of us, but once again, a noticeable better push with the high. The low is also a bit south of 6z and orientated more west east. this is NOT going to be a beautiful run at face value, but there are improvements edited!!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 39 Low just west of cincy, def south of 6z which was closer to Dayton. 850 to about Mansfield down to cincy. I sound like a broken record but the push of the HP from the nw is more than just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Buckeye, you just beat me to the punch. Hopefully the GFS follows. How great would it be for everything to shift south at the lasts minute and slam us. The rage from the Michigan and northern Indiana would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 so it looks like the nam is coming in line with the euro on track, but the difference is the nam is more bullish with the warm. I imagine the nam would be an inch or two of snow changing to rain....guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Considering where it was, that's a big improvement on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Buckeye, you just beat me to the punch. Hopefully the GFS follows. How great would it be for everything to shift south at the lasts minute and slam us. The rage from the Michigan and northern Indiana would be awesome. This actually has the potential to be a real spread the wealth kind of storm, which personally I'm rooting for. Of course, I would like the heavy band to set up over us. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Buckeye, you just beat me to the punch. Hopefully the GFS follows. How great would it be for everything to shift south at the lasts minute and slam us. The rage from the Michigan and northern Indiana would be awesome. those guys are golden..... this is all about where the rain/snow line sets up on the south end. I wouldn't get hopes up for any dramatic shifts but the point is, WE don't need a dramatic shift...we just need a shift lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 so it looks like the nam is coming in line with the euro on track, but the difference is the nam is more bullish with the warm. I imagine the nam would be an inch or two of snow changing to rain....guessing. How long before panic in the storm thread? Lol. Hope GFS follows. Seems like the NAM is a little overdone on the warm, but ohio is the WTOD capital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Considering where it was, that's a big improvement on the NAM I like the fact that it is showing a stronger HP push....that's usually a trend that doesn't stop in the short term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 those guys are golden..... this is all about where the rain/snow line sets up on the south end. I wouldn't get hopes up for any dramatic shifts but the point is, WE don't need a dramatic shift...we just need a shift lol. I know we don't, but it would be a lot more entertaining. At least the NAM is now back in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 How long before panic in the storm thread? Lol. Hope GFS follows. Seems like the NAM is a little overdone on the warm, but ohio is the WTOD capital. they have nothing to panic about unless maybe the ones that are in the inverse position of us...ie riding the northern fringe. I still think this is a snowstorm for Chicago to Cleveland..... All I care about is whether we can drill some colder air in here on the southern flanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 well, let's not get to thrilled over the nam.. It's still a hot mess at face value for us. Looks like a period of light snow...then we dryslot, then a cold rain, back to backend snow showers. As depicted it would be a miserable storm from just north of i70 on south, probably not even advisory. 35 and rain thru the bulk. but, it's the nam and it's moved in a better direction since it's last run. That's about all we can take from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 well, let's not get to thrilled over the nam.. It's still a hot mess at face value for us. Looks like a period of light snow...then we dryslot, then a cold rain, back to backend snow showers. As depicted it would be a miserable storm from just north of i70 on south, probably not even advisory. 35 and rain thru the bulk. but, it's the nam and it's moved in a better direction since it's last run. That's about all we can take from it. It's more the fact that the north shift ended and came south. Even if just a tiny bit. Could set the course for the GFS to come back south. If that happens then it'd be less likely to see a north shift from the euro and cmc. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z rgem, which tends to run warm.... hr36 and 48....doesn't get much closer lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 saw the gfs thru 48, no chages guys. Looks like if you draw a line 25 miles north of the I-70 corridor....everyone south of there is looking at a quick hit of light snow.....then predominantly cold rain...ending as snowshowers. The euro is probably not in it's wheelhouse anymore as far as shortrange,so I wouldn't expect anything from that. Same with the ggem, you need to look at the rgem, (I posted above). My first official call for CMH: 1.25" of snow, but possibly nothing on the ground at the end due to it washing away. 70% chance predominanty rain 20% chance enough snow to get us more than 2", with rain 10% chance predominantly snow I suspect ILN drops watches for all of their counties....possibly posting advisories at later periods for northern tier counties. yea it sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 what have we learned? being targeted by all the models 72 hours out doesn't mean squat.....and when it comes to southern stream involved systems, the nw trend may still have a pulse afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 what have we learned? being targeted by all the models 72 hours out doesn't mean squat.....and when it comes to southern stream involved systems, the nw trend may still have a pulse afterall. Ehh references to pdii. Maybe it'll surprise ya. It's happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Noon GFS takes the low right to CMH. Rain for Indy, Dayton, CMH and Pitt. Actually rain for about the southern 2/3rds of Ohio. Man do the models suck this winter or what. From the zenith two days ago to the crapper today. But we have seen this one many times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ehh references to pdii. Maybe it'll surprise ya. It's happened. pdII surprised us because we were being missed to the south and it suddenly jogged north inside 48. In other words, it was a nw trend that we benefited from. Not too many cases of a sudden significant south shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If the euro doesn't come south enought to get snow to I70, its punt time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Noon GFS takes the low right to CMH. Rain for Indy, Dayton, CMH and Pitt. Actually rain for about the southern 2/3rds of Ohio. Man do the models suck this winter or what. From the zenith two days ago to the crapper today. But we have seen this one many times before. we've all done this long enough that in the back of our minds, we always knew the 800lb nw gorilla was sitting in the corner of the room lol. I was just hoping that maybe the models had finally corrected for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If the euro doesn't come south enought to get snow to I70, its punt time. it would have to come south, not stay the same. Chances of that I'd put at 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Noon GFS takes the low right to CMH. Rain for Indy, Dayton, CMH and Pitt. Actually rain for about the southern 2/3rds of Ohio. Man do the models suck this winter or what. From the zenith two days ago to the crapper today. But we have seen this one many times before. looks like mixing all the way to Mansfield.... crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hopefully the local mets jump on this fast. Public is already lathered up about the big snowstorm tomorrow. I have buddies that own landscape companies that were, (still are), pumped about making some white gold tomorrow and Monday. I feel bad for them, I'm sure they're getting all geared up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 it would have to come south, not stay the same. Chances of that I'd put at 5% I was thinking closer to 1%. I'm a glass half full kind of guy, but that glass is empty right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think my new routine will be when I come in my office I'll run thru the 00z euro. If there are any threats holding together inside of 72 hours I'll start playing with the rest of the models. I tracked this thing for 10 days....what an absolute waste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hopefully the local mets jump on this fast. Public is already lathered up about the big snowstorm tomorrow. I have buddies that own landscape companies that were, (still are), pumped about making some white gold tomorrow and Monday. I feel bad for them, I'm sure they're getting all geared up. I know the feeling. I have so many messaging me right now asking and I'm not confident enough to put out a call either way lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I know the feeling. I have so many messaging me right now asking and I'm not confident enough to put out a call either way lol. I honestly think you're safe to tell them we won't be having a snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I honestly think you're safe to tell them we won't be having a snow storm You've gotta remember I'm north of columbus and i70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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