buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 My take on everything: I still think the euro holds or ticks north, the nceps will meet it halfway or a little more, and we will be left on the razors edge. We'll get snow, the question is what else will we get and how much lol. I'd say CMH has a 25% shot of an all snow event a 50% chance of snow/sleet/rain mix and a 25% chance of primarily rain. /\ I have to make this clear because I know there are those who probably think Buckeye thinks he's getting a huge snowstorm and there's going to be a huge shift south. No, I don't. The reason I'm so interested in this is precisely because it's so up in the air down here. It's amazing how often we (CMH), find ourselves in this situation...EXACT situation. We win some we lose some and more often than not we've been lucky with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Based on its previous 2 runs I'll say the euro hold serve and will look similar to the gem. Just a feeling it'll look similar to the 12z run. But the issue then becomes which guidance do you go with? Globals definitely have a better track record,but it'll be razors edge regardless. I like the ggem, but let's not forget the rgem which is it's higher res lil bro was a bit warmer and more amped. If the euro goes north and meets the gfs...it's over tonight. If the euro holds or only slightly ticks north I guess we have another 12 hours to find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 / I have to make this clear because I know there are those who probably think Buckeye thinks he's getting a huge snowstorm and there's going to be a huge shift south. No, I don't. The reason I'm so interested in this is precisely because it's so up in the air down here. It's amazing how often we (CMH), find ourselves in this situation...EXACT situation. We win some we lose some and more often than not we've been lucky with these.Agreed. I was in Columbus for 4 years and seemed to get that vibe. We lose more often in Cincinnati lol like your forecast though! Makes for one hell of a job trying to nail down actual numbers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I like the ggem, but let's not forget the rgem which is it's higher res lil bro was a bit warmer and more amped. If the euro goes north and meets the gfs...it's over tonight. If the euro holds or only slightly ticks north I guess we have another 12 hours to find out. If the euro holds I'll feel confident for 6+ in the i70 coridor. I'm too nervous to put out a map for any of my followers on facebook because the models can't just come to an agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Agreed. I was in Columbus for 4 years and seemed to get that vibe. We lose more often in Cincinnati lol like your forecast though! Makes for one hell of a job trying to nail down actual numbers! Yea it's crazy. Would I rather be riding the northern fringe or southern fringe? 5 years ago I would have said northern without missing a beat. But honestly I think a shift either way is 50/50....I could see how both could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yea it's crazy. Would I rather be riding the northern fringe or southern fringe? 5 years ago I would have said northern without missing a beat. But honestly I think a shift either way is 50/50....I could see how both could happen.So many variables that could tweak the track. If you think about it, this is the only time of year we look at the track of the low that close. Models always waffle but we don't care in June! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 So many variables that could tweak the track. If you think about it, this is the only time of year we look at the track of the low that close. Models always waffle but we don't care in June! so true. I have no idea how models do with warm season rainstorms, biases etc. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 euro north.... that's all folks... suddenly I feel oddly free good night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 euro north.... that's all folks... suddenly I feel oddly free good night Waiting still on it to come out. How far north does the 850 go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Waiting still on it to come out. How far north does the 850 go? 1000mb low to about Chillicothe... congrats gfs and nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 1000mb low to about Chillicothe... congrats gfs and nam Still will need to wait on maps so I can see what it means for my area. Lol. I'll definitely be close on the euro then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 here ya go... I guess I can always road trip 10 miles to see a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 here ya go... I guess I can always road trip 10 miles to see a foot Yea I'm in the pink still I'm in Coshocton county. Thanks for posting that still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I mean I guess technically the pink/purple line is in mby, but you probably have to shave off 25 miles due to it being a wxbell map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Following the 32 and 35F lines on wxbell you can see the Euro and GFS are very close. Gets the 35F line to to Dayton and even CMH briefly as the low passes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Damn, not a big enough shift to make me lose all hope. I mean really, it was just a slight bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 last one. looks like 4-7 in franklin county. But again, it's wxbell so it's telling us that I-70 is mostly going to be slop. I suspect this is where the modeling will hone. I'd rather be missed by 100 miles than 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Buckeye, what makes me nervous about going to high for Columbus is the amount of time you guys spend in the 32-34 (briefly 35) degree range. Possibly mostly snow, but above freezing and during the day? Can't imagine that all of it sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 How the hell do you make a forecast. The heavy snow band is literally 25-50 miles away. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 buckeye come back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 buckeye come back!must be going with the euro. 6z gfs was way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 must be going with the euro. 6z gfs was way north. I dunno. The 06z GFS still gives CMH around 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 suppose they could be using a blend. The gem hammers me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 gem_asnow_neus_13.png suppose they could be using a blend. The gem hammers me. Could be. Lock it in. lol BTW, sitting at 6 degrees currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 so the 6z nam is north, the gfs is kind of holding. Meanwhile the 6z rgem is still, barely, but still a snowstorm for us (CMH). Has a much weaker low. The weird thing about that is the rgem is usually warm and amped. Rare to see the gfs warmer and more north. Granted that could change when the 12z rgem comes out but for now it is really unusual. The euro ens match the OP pretty well and we still have the nogaps lol. That's the current state of our storm. My new prediction : 30% chance all rain, 50% some accums with slop, 20% all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 so the 6z nam is north, the gfs is kind of holding. Meanwhile the 6z rgem is still, barely, but still a snowstorm for us (CMH). Has a much weaker low. The weird thing about that is the rgem is usually warm and amped. Rare to see the gfs warmer and more north. Granted that could change when the 12z rgem comes out but for now it is really unusual. Let's hope the rgem is the canary in the coal mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Let's hope the rgem is the canary in the coal mine. yea and it doesn't die and get rained on lol. Well I have the nam out to 24. Definitely the high pressure is pushing better from the nw. Not much of a change in the 850 line yet though. We'll see if it translates to a further south solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Let's hope the rgem is the canary in the coal mine. At least we still have some models on our side. I still wouldn't be shocked to see a small shift south at 12z, but as long as the gem and the euro are still in our camp I'll stay the course lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 30 hr nam. definitely more south out west of us. Still a better push of the HP also. Not making much of a diff in the advance of the 850 0 line however. which is odd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 30 hr nam. definitely more south out west of us. Still a better push of the HP also. Not making much of a diff in the advance of the 850 0 line however. which is odd... Noticed that too. At least the north trend seems to have halted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.