JayPSU Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 gfs low track is basically the ohio river. So the 850 line gets at or just slightly north of i70 around 45-51 hour Looks like the rain/snow line gets right to my house in Westerville. Talk about a nail biter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 gfs low track is basically the ohio river. So the 850 line gets at or just slightly north of i70 around 45-51 hourCan you post the 12z same hour for comparison? Don't have access to previous runs. Accuwx pro...Could have a long period of sleet based on this run. Srfc Temps definitely go above freezing. So idk this is gonna be a mess trying to forecast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 WOW!!! Local mets saying it will definately change to rain for quite a bit!! So sick of riding the line!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 snow on gfs is like 4-6" franklin county.....then about 10-12" at the heaviest point about 50 miles north of there. You can start to see the results of the WTOD. The snowshield is still primarily west - east but tapers once into central Ohio due to the push of warmth in front of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 looks like Indy, CMH, and PIT are all in the same boat wrt the southern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Larry Cosgrove... want to wait until the 12z runs on Saturday morning before I post a more definitive snow/ice/rain map for the event moving from the Midwest on Saturday afternoon to the Northeast on Monday morning. Lots of changes every run with the numerical models, which I think are distorting the eventual outcome of this system in terms of track, speed and precipitation extent. That said, I am pretty confident of the path the system is going to take: Cape Girardeau MO....Lexington KY....Beckley WV....Washington DC....Seaford DE....Wildwood NJ....100mi S Martha's Vineyard MA....Sable Island NS. I suspect that the snow/mix to ice line will get into S OH....C WV....S PA (Pa Turnpike east of New Stanton)....C NJ (around I-195). The ice or mix to rain arc will zigzag through extreme N KY and WV to near Front Royal VA....Bowie MD....Smyrna DE....Atlantic City NJ. Below that designation it is likely going to mostly of not all rain. There still will be some decent (moderate to heavy) snowfall to deal with in much of the Corn Belt and Northeast. Will post something on Saturday. Stay calm, and avoid model hugging and index humping. wink emoticon Like · · Share This track should be all snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 WOW!!! Local mets saying it will definately change to rain for quite a bit!! So sick of riding the line!!! Focus on models not the local TV mets. We will be close. But not throwing the towel in yet. Wait on the gem and the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 rgem thru 48 has similar snow totals as gfs, possibly a little more south. We seriously need about a 50 mile shift south. is that possible 48 hrs out? I know for certain bigger shifts north than that have occurred in that time frame....but south??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 want to wait until the 12z runs on Saturday morning before I post a more definitive snow/ice/rain map for the event moving from the Midwest on Saturday afternoon to the Northeast on Monday morning. Lots of changes every run with the numerical models, which I think are distorting the eventual outcome of this system in terms of track, speed and precipitation extent. That said, I am pretty confident of the path the system is going to take: Cape Girardeau MO....Lexington KY....Beckley WV....Washington DC....Seaford DE....Wildwood NJ....100mi S Martha's Vineyard MA....Sable Island NS. I suspect that the snow/mix to ice line will get into S OH....C WV....S PA (Pa Turnpike east of New Stanton)....C NJ (around I-195). The ice or mix to rain arc will zigzag through extreme N KY and WV to near Front Royal VA....Bowie MD....Smyrna DE....Atlantic City NJ. Below that designation it is likely going to mostly of not all rain. There still will be some decent (moderate to heavy) snowfall to deal with in much of the Corn Belt and Northeast. Will post something on Saturday. Stay calm, and avoid model hugging and index humping. wink emoticon Like · · Share This track should be all snow!! From Larry Cosgrove!! that track would hammer us..... good luck with that forecast LC. Hmmm I've heard of model hugging but what's 'index humping'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 rgem thru 48 has similar snow totals as gfs, possibly a little more south. We seriously need about a 50 mile shift south. is that possible 48 hrs out? I know for certain bigger shifts north than that have occurred in that time frame....but south??? Hope the euro comes in similar to 0z and 12z. That'd be 3 straight runs. Then what do we do? Go with the euro or concede Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hope the euro comes in similar to 0z and 12z. That'd be 3 straight runs. Then what do we do? Go with the euro or concede if the euro holds, something has to give and I would think we would see movement with the 6z nceps....but who knows. If I was a betting man I'd probably bet the euro ticks north closer to the gfs. After that it becomes all noise trying to figure out the precip type and temps. the real kicker would be if the euro came in south, even if just slighty south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 ohhhhhh Canada still lov'n us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 ohhhhhh Canada still lov'n us unbelievable lol. Post maps if you can. I just seen in the other thread it's way south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 ohhhhhh Canada still lov'n us haha I'm with ya on that whole other topic thing its like if your S-80 you might as well forget posting geesh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 unbelievable lol. Post maps if you can. I just seen in the other thread it's way south Yeah..just saw that!! We just need a 50 mile shift!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 haha I'm with ya on that whole other topic thing its like if your S-80 you might as well forget posting geesh... Guy over there said the ggem is the same as the gfs and nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 unbelievable lol. Post maps if you can. I just seen in the other thread it's way south i'll post once wxbell updates....it's way south of gfs and nam but not necessarily south of it's own 12z run. but the rain snow line is pretty close to the ohio river. storm tracks from central ky to Pittsburgh. of course I'm going off those crappy black and white maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well folks towel thrown here...will need to reduce totals for I-70 looks like (I had 4-8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Guy over there said the ggem is the same as the gfs and nam. I don't know what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Can only hope Euro follows that GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 ggem held steady. It's really wound up too so if it were to trend weaker, it would probably be further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 ggem held steady. It's really wound up too so if it were to trend weaker, it would probably be further south. Nothing wrong with this map!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well folks towel thrown here...will need to reduce totals for I-70 looks like (I had 4-8) That's random. Based on what? Right now it's the nam/gfs vs the gem/euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 ukmet trended east. the 12z had a 999 over dayton. Another wound up storm. Probably some precip issue but a big improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 gefs match op pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 gefs match op pretty good Gonna be American vs global.. Which do you trust more is the question. It's 10° here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 looks like Indy, CMH, and PIT are all in the same boat wrt the southern edge. Yeah we all need the same trend, Canadian was nice to see for sure. Seems like this season storms turned slightly more progressive in the last 36-24 hours leading up to the event, I'd love to see that happen with this one and we don't need much of a shift South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gonna be American vs global.. Which do you trust more is the question. It's 10° here right now. My take on everything: I still think the euro holds or ticks north, the nceps will meet it halfway or a little more, and we will be left on the razors edge. We'll get snow, the question is what else will we get and how much lol. I'd say CMH has a 25% shot of an all snow event a 50% chance of snow/sleet/rain mix and a 25% chance of primarily rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah we all need the same trend, Canadian was nice to see for sure. Seems like this season storms turned slightly more progressive in the last 36-24 hours leading up to the event, I'd love to see that happen with this one and we don't need much of a shift South. agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 My take on everything: I still think the euro holds or ticks north, the nceps will meet it halfway or a little more, and we will be left on the razors edge. We'll get snow, the question is what else will we get and how much lol. I'd say CMH has a 25% shot of an all snow event a 50% chance of snow/sleet/rain mix and a 25% chance of primarily rain. Based on its previous 2 runs I'll say the euro hold serve and will look similar to the gem. Just a feeling it'll look similar to the 12z run. But the issue then becomes which guidance do you go with? Globals definitely have a better track record,but it'll be razors edge regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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