vespasian70 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Here is the one from PIT. Has me in 6+ 1513789_713183482113071_3835477966220297278_n.png Must've put that up before the GFS caved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's over guys. As bad as things look, models almost always tend to underestimate the northern movement with a storm moving up from the south/west, so I would expect even further north than what these show, and that puts I-70 just about out of it aside from some slop... barring a miracle. I may have to revise my call downward. As i said earlier, this is the season of the last day south shift with storms. Much better odds of seeing a south shift on the 0z runs than a north shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Im trying to remember the last storm we had that gave us accumulating snow changing to rain. Not a typical climo storm for us. Maybe FEB 07 is a good analog? It seems like when you start as snow with an arctic presser they usually stay frozen because the cold air has worked in and isn't going to be easily displaced. Complete change to rain seems uncommon at least. I do remember a small storm, I think in December 2005, where the ground ended up covered and, within a few hours after falling, the snow had completely melted due to a push of warmer air. I don't remember rain after the snow, though. It was a very unusual situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not only that, but we typically do well with the more west to east moving storms. It's the cutters that drag up the wtod that we struggle with. Jb could be right, but I'm not throwing in the towel yet. West to east is not the problem, it's how far north it is moving west to east. Over top of us is not going to get the job done. If the 0z runs stay north or move further north, there is really no reason to expect a miracle at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Must be humping the NAM. ILN was pretty bullish on the NAM in the AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM already coming in stronger... sorry guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I've got the towel in my hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gonna have to pray that our high pressure bulldozes south to prevent a flood of warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Towel thrown. This one goes to Detroit. What a mess of a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If GFS and EURO decide to stay/go north this run, I'm going to punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Good lord. NAM takes the rain/snow line nearly to Cleveland lol. This is becoming laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Good lord. NAM takes the rain/snow line nearly to Cleveland lol. This is becoming laughable. I'm guessing NAM is in it's own world unless the other go north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm guessing NAM is in it's own world unless the other go north too. We better hope. 12z was. If GFS is north I'm throwing in the towel regardless of what the euro says I'd say. Euro was wrong last system. Could be wrong again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Can't get an unbiased Mets analysis in the storm thread. They see the nam and have ran with it since 12z. The Mets posting are from the northern fringes of the system so they're using an imby mentality. So definitely waiting on the other models. NAM has been by far the worst this year to the point that some have even called for it to be put out of use. So it shocks me to see guys even in our thread ready to throw in the towel because of the NAM. Anyways, GFS will be coming soon. If it shoots way north then we better worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 ok my turn to play 'chins up' it's still around hour 40 when the nam starts to pull out of the southern plains into the OV...40 hours on the nam is like 96 on the gfs...so I'm not too rattled by that. It's interesting that the snow band is still west to east. If you loop the maps there is a WTOD but it travels in front of the low so that's why the southern edge is so straight and west to east across IL, IN, OH. According to the nam we are on the extreme southern fringe of light accumulating snow and the axis of heavy snow is around rt30... In other words we need about 100 mile shift south lol. Let's see what the gfs does. So here's a question for you. Suppose the gfs and euro hold tonight....then what?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 ok my turn to play 'chins up' it's still around hour 40 when the nam starts to pull out of the southern plains into the OV...40 hours on the nam is like 96 on the gfs...so I'm not too rattled by that. It's interesting that the snow band is still west to east. If you loop the maps there is a WTOD but it travels in front of the low so that's why the southern edge is so straight and west to east across IL, IN, OH. According to the nam we are on the extreme southern fringe of light accumulating snow and the axis of heavy snow is around rt30... In other words we need about 100 mile shift south lol. Let's see what the gfs does. So here's a question for you. Suppose the gfs and euro hold tonight....then what?? If it's like the 12z run where the NAM was basically by itself with the heavy axis then I'll do a mix of the GFS EURO AND CMC. I will be shocked if the GFS and EURO cave to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Can't get an unbiased Mets analysis in the storm thread. They see the nam and have ran with it since 12z. The Mets posting are from the northern fringes of the system so they're using an imby mentality. So definitely waiting on the other models. NAM has been by far the worst this year to the point that some have even called for it to be put out of use. So it shocks me to see guys even in our thread ready to throw in the towel because of the NAM. Anyways, GFS will be coming soon. If it shoots way north then we better worry. nothing against those guys...we are all mby people...but when we have a storm like this where it's trending one way or other and the guys to the north are pulling it their way and we want it to come our way it makes posting in the same thread impossible. It's like DC and Boston posters in the same storm thread. It's ridiculous. That's why I've stayed over here now that the storm is focusing itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 nothing against those guys...we are all mby people...but when we have a storm like this where it's trending one way or other and the guys to the north are pulling it their way and we want it to come our way it makes posting in the same thread impossible. It's like DC and Boston posters in the same storm thread. It's ridiculous. That's why I've stayed over here now that the storm is focusing itself. You're correct, we are. I would think red tags would be more unbiased. Nothing against them, but that's what leads to mets being ridiculed. Take the east coast storm for instance. Most model guidance clearly showed that NYC wasn't going to be pummeled with a historic storm, but the Mets there took the one model that showed it and ran with it, had the city shut down etc, then wonder why they've been bashed since the storm. Anyways back on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 nothing against those guys...we are all mby people...but when we have a storm like this where it's trending one way or other and the guys to the north are pulling it their way and we want it to come our way it makes posting in the same thread impossible. It's like DC and Boston posters in the same storm thread. It's ridiculous. That's why I've stayed over here now that the storm is focusing itself. This is a frustrating part of this forum. While it is not personal what I want with a snow storm 95% of the time will suck for you in OH. It is truly not about screwing some but rather purely about MBY. I know my joy means someone else's pain and visa versa. Hoosier has his hands full with a forum that covers such a large area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 rgem isn't as bad as I expected. At 48 hrs it has a low west central KY vs. the nam which has it over Cincy same time. The 850 line runs along I-70 but that would be probably it's furthest north advance. The trough is still neutral to slightly positively tilted which would probably send the low east/northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is a frustrating part of this forum. While it is not personal what I want with a snow storm 95% of the time will suck for you in OH. It is truly not about screwing some but rather purely about MBY. I know my joy means someone else's pain and visa versa. Hoosier has his hands full with a forum that covers such a large area! Haha yea trust me I feel bad for Hoosier. Poor guy must get stressed lol. I get stressed couldnt imagine having to deal with keeping the threads clean on top of it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is a frustrating part of this forum. While it is not personal what I want with a snow storm 95% of the time will suck for you in OH. It is truly not about screwing some but rather purely about MBY. I know my joy means someone else's pain and visa versa. Hoosier has his hands full with a forum that covers such a large area! Well said. We've had this debate about breaking the forum further. Maybe in quieter times we should bring that debate back to life. The geographic scope of this forum is insane lol. Look at the eastcoast forums. Hell philly has their own forum. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well said. We've had this debate about breaking the forum further. Maybe in quieter times we should bring that debate back to life. The geographic scope of this forum is insane lol. Look at the eastcoast forums. Hell philly has their own forum. lol Even just splitting it. Instead of Lakes/OV have a separate sub-forum for each. One lakes one ohio valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Haha yea trust me I feel bad for Hoosier. Poor guy must get stressed lol. I get stressed couldnt imagine having to deal with keeping the threads clean on top of it lol. I try not to think about board stuff when not online. Can be difficult at times though. I like our group, collectively speaking. Issues here usually aren't as bad/frequent as other areas of the board. Some of the other mods on here probably deserve a salary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Someone in the other thread posted a p-type map for the RGEM and it looked like the rain/snow line stayed south of I-70....interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Someone in the other thread posted a p-type map for the RGEM and it looked like the rain/snow line stayed south of I-70....interesting. it's running on the model site here...i'll let you know. Also the gfs looks about the same on the surface but when you loop the trends of the last runs, (which you can do on the models here), the HP is definitely pushing harder. The isobars are much tighter on the nw side of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gfs looks stronger to me. I'm out to 42. 540 line is pushing it's way to i70. Not sure if it makes it there though. Ouch. 540 makes it to near mansfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gfs looks stronger to me. I'm out to 42. 540 line is pushing it's way to i70. Not sure if it makes it there though. I've seen it thru 60, it comes out fast on this site....very much like previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 gfs low track is basically the ohio river. So the 850 line gets at or just slightly north of i70 around 45-51 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I've seen it thru 60, it comes out fast on this site....very much like previous run. 540 makes it to mansfield. 850 makes it to right near i70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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