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Let's talk Winter!


Steve

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Now the season REALLY has started!    first wxbell map posting of the 2014-15 season :weenie:   (10/29 00z euro).....   Congrats Mansfield, 5-8" :lmao:

 

 

Have they ever said what they use ( criteria ) for their snowfall maps? The sites i use shows no snowfall on the snowfall maps for that euro run?

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Have they ever said what they use ( criteria ) for their snowfall maps? The sites i use shows no snowfall on the snowfall maps for that euro run?

it uses a straight 10:1 ratio, which is why it's usually overdone, especially this time of year.   It will be interesting to see if any light accum actually occurs around here, the runs have been pretty consistent with dropping 1" over a large area of northern and central OH.  

 

I would imagine a 'whitening' of grassy surfaces is not out of the question if we can get anything during the overnight.

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it uses a straight 10:1 ratio, which is why it's usually overdone, especially this time of year.   It will be interesting to see if any light accum actually occurs around here, the runs have been pretty consistent with dropping 1" over a large area of northern and central OH.  

 

I would imagine a 'whitening' of grassy surfaces is not out of the question if we can get anything during the overnight.

It will be interesting if for a 2nd straight year CMH gets a jump start on DTW.

 

2013-14.............CMH....DTW

Thru Dec 12th....13.4"......2.5"

Season total.......56.4"....94.9"

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It will be interesting if for a 2nd straight year CMH gets a jump start on DTW.

 

2013-14.............CMH....DTW

Thru Dec 12th....13.4"......2.5"

Season total.......56.4"....94.9"

 

It would be a strange coincidence.  Last year we were ahead of many here early in the season but that didn't end up meaning crap.  We quickly lost ground and stalled out, beginning with the January 5th storm.    We recovered ok later in the season but our overall departure above normal was nowhere near as great as a lot oft others had in the sub forum.

 

I'd rather be winning the snow battle in January then November.  

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It would be a strange coincidence.  Last year we were ahead of many here early in the season but that didn't end up meaning crap.  We quickly lost ground and stalled out, beginning with the January 5th storm.    We recovered ok later in the season but our overall departure above normal was nowhere near as great as a lot oft others had in the sub forum.

 

I'd rather be winning the snow battle in January then November.  

oh dont get me wrong, I would too...I just remember being slightly agitated last year in early December (looking back on it it looks ridiculous...but who can predict a record smashing winter?) because CMH actually got the last decent snow in 2012-13, with 4.1" on Mar 25th (DTW was fringed with 0.4"....then another 0.1" on Apr 20 was it). So....there was technically a period of time (separated by the entire warm season) where CMH had several shovelable snows between Detroit, and I was thinking wtf lol?

 

Thinking with deform you have a better shot than me for some light accums tonight, though we both will probably see our first flakes.

 

Columbus averages 16" less than Detroit annually, but they do occasionally get more snow. Since 1885, it has been done 21 times in 130 years

 

2009-10

2003-04

1999-00

1995-96

1978-79

1967-68

1965-66

1963-64

1962-63

1961-62

1960-61

1957-58

1952-53

1950-51

1948-49

1947-48

1936-37

1917-18

1916-17

1909-10

1905-06

 

xmacis only has snowcover since 1948, and in that time only once (1960-61) did CMH have more snowcover days than DTW.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Not good news for early snow lovers here.....it looks like both the ggem and the euro have shifted east with sun/mon system...ggem a total miss for central OH and euro lighter snows in southeast OH.    Meanwhile the gfs and nam have gone the other way bringing more substantial precip into central OH.   

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well we'll see if the euro and ggem shift things back a bit nw.  If not, or the se trend continues I'd probably put a fork in it regardless of what the nam or gfs shows.  

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Not good news for early snow lovers here.....it looks like both the ggem and the euro have shifted east with sun/mon system...ggem a total miss for central OH and euro lighter snows in southeast OH. Meanwhile the gfs and nam have gone the other way bringing more substantial precip into central OH.

I saw your post in the northern OH thread...I had initially been leaning towards a slightly more NW track, because I'm not sure the incoming cold will dive SE fast enough to completely suppress this system. With that said, I'm not sure the jackpot with this is more than a few inches. I'm curious for the 12z Euro.
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Well looks like the euro brought the snow back....3-5" across central and southeastern with 3" in central and 5" in southeastern areas..

 

After seeing todays runs....I think 1-3" across CMH is looking pretty solid.   Not bad for mid November.

I'll take it. The trend is our friend!

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yea, be nice to break the seal on measurable snow for the 2014-15 season.

 

Btw, wonder what happened to jbcmh and his winter forecast?

Honestly, this one is trending the "right" way for a change. It seems like all last year it maybe looked good for us 3-4 days out, only to see models push the precip further and further south as we drew closer. We shall see. Hope biz was good for you this past year.

 

Good call about jbcmh. Hope he is ok.

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yea, be nice to break the seal on measurable snow for the 2014-15 season.

 

Btw, wonder what happened to jbcmh and his winter forecast?

 

I'm around, just been too busy to really put one together this year.  At this time, though, I would expect a DJF mean of about 3-4 degrees below normal, so around 27-28.  Warmer than last year, obviously, but still cold.  For snowfall, I'm calling for the 3rd above normal year in a row, at between 35"-45".

 

The earliest trace of snow on record, the very cold November pattern after a below normal October, as well as larger factors like AO and snow cover all point to a decent winter from my pov.

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