wxdudemike Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 don't worry, 18z starts the south trend My post for the day: Technically the northern energy isn't sampled until tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Would you mind explaining.. From everything i am looking at Cincy is right around 2-3 inches I mean there will be a sharp cutoff at some point. one interesting aspect of this storm is that there is no WTOD signal. It's straight west to east . Usually you see those ominous tongue openings in the snowfall maps cutting up thru southeast OH and southwestern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 15Z has CMH with 5.64" as the mean which is actually a hair above the operational Nam. Good sign for a halting of the northern jumps. Huge spread though among the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Here is my first call map. The storm total is tricky for Cincinnati because the amount of snow that falls before we change to rain is in question. Plus, the amount of snow that melts due to the rain is also questionable. But assuming an inch or two Sunday evening plus a tad bit of AM snow still on the ground, I will go 1-3" for now. The southern zones in my light blue area will likely reside closer to 1". Didn't want to draw the line yet of where the very low end will be.My dark blue area, you guys are the lowest confidence. That is why I have a wider range of 2-5. More rain mixes in, closer to 2. Slightly less rain, 5 or even 6" is possible.Pink area (Columbus): Total precip right now would suggest possibly even over 8" of snow is possible. However, I think surface temps of 32-34 degrees along with unfavorable daytime timing will limit it. Going 4-8 to account for that plus any minor north shift cutting down totals.Red area: Bit of the NW corner of my map includes the sweet spot where I could see up to 10" (locally higher) falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 My post for the day: Technically the northern energy isn't sampled until tonight! Buckeye-- thanks keeping this subfourm going...keep talking to yourself, I enjoy it as well. WxDude--- I am totally with you on the missing link.....I have a hunch that artic air has a bit more punch to it than currently is being shown in the near term (we certainly see it in the temps next Tuesday AM)....still puts us on the border line....but typically (47 years a native of CVG) our biggest snows are the ones that change at the last minute.....but, time is running out for us on this tremendous opportunity in a boring winter I not going to complain about a 2 inch event.....but I need 5-6 to get the feel of an "Event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well, the good thing about the 18Z NAM is the bleeding north halted and we're still RIGHT on the line between 2-4" and the big 8-12" area. I'm still optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm sticking with 3"-4" for Columbus. The Euro moved north again and is closer to the NAM. ILN's zones have sleet in the forecast. Game is just about over for this one. Northern Ohio should get a great storm, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm sticking with 3"-4" for Columbus. The Euro moved north again and is closer to the NAM. ILN's zones have sleet in the forecast. Game is just about over for this one. Northern Ohio should get a great storm, though. For those to the south in C'Bus. BUF ain't buying the NAM solution. Still very much in the game... AFTER THAT...THINGS GET CONSIDERABLY MORE INTERESTING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED OHIO VALLEY LOW STRENGTHENS AND SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THIS SYSTEM ALL ALONG...THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTIES IN PINNING DOWN ITS EXACT TRACK...THOUGH THIS SAID THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS CONTINUED THE GENERAL NORTHWARD SHIFT SEEN IN TODAY/S EARLIER 00Z AND 06Z RUNS. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GENERALLY RANGES FROM A TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TO ONE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING THE FORMER AND THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATING THE LATTER. WITH THE NAM APPEARING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN OUTLIER AT THIS JUNCTURE...FEEL THAT A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL /AND USUALLY MORE RELIABLE/ MODELS IS THE SAFER BET TO FOLLOW AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm sticking with 3"-4" for Columbus. The Euro moved north again and is closer to the NAM. ILN's zones have sleet in the forecast. Game is just about over for this one. Northern Ohio should get a great storm, though. To be fair, any movement on the EC was of the noise level variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 wow disastrous 18z runs. NAM ended up being the best news simply because it didn't change. The gfs blows thru Ohio and the rgem looks like it's going to go apesh*t amped, which probably means the ggem goes that direction at 00z. If this is anything other than a hiccup, WSW's will be pulled down in the morning. Unreal edit: gfs looked worse on my phone then it was....but still major shift north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 wow disastrous 18z runs. NAM ended up being the best news simply because it didn't change. The gfs blows thru Ohio and the rgem looks like it's going to go apesh*t amped, which probably means the ggem goes that direction at 00z. If this is anything other than a hiccup, WSW's will be pulled down in the morning. Unreal Well it's the 18z runs so no need to lose your mind. The other thing is that the other bigger storms have had last minute south shifts after a north shift 2 to 3 days out. Would not surprize me to see the 0z's start to come back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well it's the 18z runs so no need to lose your mind. The other thing is that the other bigger storms have had last minute south shifts after a north shift 2 to 3 days out. Would not surprize me to see the 0z's start to come back south. yea, I was checking on my phone....first I saw the rgem which looks pretty amped, then the gfs...and I thought here we go. Although I have to remind myself how many times we see this kind of stuff and it turns out the euro holds like a rock and ends up scoring the win. I won't tag out until and if the 00z runs hit the iceberg...but yea the fog is as thick as pea soup and the captain just slammed down 10 shots..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 yea, I was checking on my phone....first I saw the rgem which looks pretty amped, then the gfs...and I thought here we go. Although I have to remind myself how many times we see this kind of stuff and it turns out the euro holds like a rock and ends up scoring the win. I won't tag out until and if the 00z runs hit the iceberg...but yea the fog is as thick as pea soup and the captain just slammed down 10 shots..... SUN 12Z 01-FEB -1.7 -3.0 1022 98 99 0.14 552 535 SUN 18Z 01-FEB 0.5 -4.3 1015 100 99 0.10 550 538 MON 00Z 02-FEB 0.6 -0.2 1007 98 99 0.26 546 541 MON 06Z 02-FEB 0.5 0.0 1000 98 98 0.29 538 Gfs dumps, Temps are so close though lol. 20 miles north of cmh would be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It's over guys. As bad as things look, models almost always tend to underestimate the northern movement with a storm moving up from the south/west, so I would expect even further north than what these show, and that puts I-70 just about out of it aside from some slop... barring a miracle. I may have to revise my call downward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It's over guys. As bad as things look, models almost always tend to underestimate the northern movement with a storm moving up from the south/west, so I would expect even further north than what these show, and that puts I-70 just about out of it aside from some slop... barring a miracle. I may have to revise my call downward.It's over based on an 18z run of the GFS? EURO 0Z last night and 12Z today are nearly identical. The 12z runs were all good hits. Not sure I understand the insane amount of negativity from you JB lol. Where's JayPSU been?Edit: nvm he just posted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 With that being said I'm definitely going to wait until 0z to put a call out because the 18z runs did throw some inconsistency in. I think we see a shift back south by 0z. It'll be fully sampled then and will tell the story for the most part. 18z runs don't get new roab data so I'm guessing the GFS at 18z is a hiccup. I guess we'll see in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Im trying to remember the last storm we had that gave us accumulating snow changing to rain. Not a typical climo storm for us. Maybe FEB 07 is a good analog? It seems like when you start as snow with an arctic presser they usually stay frozen because the cold air has worked in and isn't going to be easily displaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Snow weenie Chris Bradly has bailed on us. Says that interstate 30 is golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Im trying to remember the last storm we had that gave us accumulating snow changing to rain. Not a typical climo storm for us. Maybe FEB 07 is a good analog? It seems like when you start as snow with an arctic presser they usually stay frozen because the cold air has worked in and isn't going to be easily displaced. Not only that, but we typically do well with the more west to east moving storms. It's the cutters that drag up the wtod that we struggle with. Jb could be right, but I'm not throwing in the towel yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Snow weenie Chris Bradly has bailed on us. Says that interstate 30 is golden. Brave call....kinda admire it, but probably should have waited 1 more run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Snow weenie Chris Bradly has bailed on us. Says that interstate 30 is golden. He goes with whatever the current model is showing at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not only that, but we typically do well with the more west to east moving storms. It's the cutters that drag up the wtod that we struggle with. Jb could be right, but I'm not throwing in the towel yet. System is really strange. Its not technically a cutter yet the warm runs are taking the low northeast thru Southend Ohio. So the more amped, the more it resembles a cutter. Yet every snowfall map ive seen is west to east with the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not only that, but we typically do well with the more west to east moving storms. It's the cutters that drag up the wtod that we struggle with. Jb could be right, but I'm not throwing in the towel yet. That's what i was thinking. I can't figure out how a storm moving west to east produces the WTOD! If it wasn't for the WTOD CMH would double its average yearly snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 He goes with whatever the current model is showing at the time. I suspect Bradley lurks here....just a gut feeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 He goes with whatever the current model is showing at the time. Must be humping the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'll post this here for posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I suspect Bradley lurks here....just a gut feeling He may. But oh well. I like Chris. He's the best tv met in central ohio, but he does tend to just post whatever the current models are showing. Hell he started posting the model maps because I kept calling him out on his facebook page because he was constantly posting clown maps for people who don't understand then the see it and think we're getting 2 feet of snow. I'm unsure if he's only a broadcast met or if he does his own forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'll post this here for posterity.dumb question but where do you find those? I can never find that on the page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 dumb question but where do you find those? I can never find that on the page. On their FB. I dunno why they don't post them on thier .gov page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Here is the one from PIT. Has me in 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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