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Let's talk Winter!


Steve

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agree. It seems a rainer is usually without doubt, (ie last January 5), but when we are straddling the 850 with models in disagreement we've been pulling off the coupes.

If this turns out to suck....I'm already over it...that doesn't mean I'm not going to root hard for as much snow as possible and keep my weenie goggles on....but hell, if it rains it rains. We are definitely the battle hardened of the subforum..

If it misses I'm rooting for a torch within a couple weeks. I'm already over this crap of a winter a miss here will be the icing.

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If it misses I'm rooting for a torch within a couple weeks. I'm already over this crap of a winter a miss here will be the icing.

 

 

unfortunately you know the drill here in Central Ohio.  The storm track we wanted in January will suddenly appear in March. :lol:

 

by the way, the rgem would indicate the Canadian will come north.  Might not be a complete disaster since we needed a north trend on that model. :guitar:

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unfortunately you know the drill here in Central Ohio. The storm track we wanted in January will suddenly appear in March. :lol:

by the way, the rgem would indicate the Canadian will come north. Might not be a complete disaster since we needed a north trend on that model. :guitar:

I will say this while waiting on the other 12z models. I'm not going to lose hope because the NAM (worst model this year) says it's too far north. The Euro was still a good hit to us last night. If the GFS caves and gives us next to nothing and the euro still holds I'll probably give up because the EURO was off on the east coast storm while the GFS showed the east shift. Hopefully the GFS still has the good swath over i70 and the euro holds. Guess we will know soon.

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running thru the gfs, I really can't believe there's so much punt talk on this one.   Held serve to 6z and the high pressure was more bully.  According to the amwx snowfall maps....heaviest swath runs from Columbus on the southside and about 100 miles north.  In other words we are in on the good stuff.

 

put a banana high over south Dakota extending across the upper lakes and bring a low from Arkansas to the OH/WV border and I'd take that set up all day long

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running thru the gfs, I really can't believe there's so much punt talk on this one. Held serve to 6z and the high pressure was more bully. According to the amwx snowfall maps....heaviest swath runs from Columbus on the southside and about 100 miles north. In other words we are in on the good stuff.

put a banana high over south Dakota extending across the upper lakes and bring a low from Arkansas to the OH/WV border and I'd take that set up all day long

That's why I said I wasn't giving up yet just based on the NAM. GFS looks good For us. No access to the Canadian. I'll leave it up to you lol.

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running thru the gfs, I really can't believe there's so much punt talk on this one.   Held serve to 6z and the high pressure was more bully.  According to the amwx snowfall maps....heaviest swath runs from Columbus on the southside and about 100 miles north.  In other words we are in on the good stuff.

 

put a banana high over south Dakota extending across the upper lakes and bring a low from Arkansas to the OH/WV border and I'd take that set up all day long

 

Yea looks like the 12z GFS pumps out just under 1" QPF total for the I-70 folks and south to near the river!

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ggem....

I feel  like im talking to myself lol

You guys seem to be in the same boat as us with what needs to happen to get some good snows in this set up. I would feel much better if the Euro goes a bit south or at least does not nudge north at 12z. 

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You guys seem to be in the same boat as us with what needs to happen to get some good snows in this set up. I would feel much better if the Euro goes a bit south or at least does not nudge north at 12z. 

 

I assume you're western PA?   I've always thought the Pitt/CMH crowd should be in the same forum.  It makes way more sense then CMH with Chicago or Michigan.   We tend to have the same issues as you guys.  WTOD etc.  We rarely share snowstorms with like 60% of our subforum lol....although this might be an exception.

 

as far as the euro...I'd be jumping for joy if it simply held...although a slight shift south would be the best.

 

Honestly I could see a more amped solution too...hate to say it...but you have to put that in the mix of possibilities as well.

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Yes, Pittsburgh area. I was out in Columbus for the past 4 years so I'm rooting for you guys as well. I agree about grouping Columbus and Pitt together. I honestly think this storm could go either way right now with a slight wobble south still on the table. That being said, I think if a south shift happens it does so by tonight. The closer to the storm the more that freezing line tends to creep up. 

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First post here from about 10 miles south of Cincy.  This one had some potential on yesterday's 12z, but just not looking good for the Tri-State now.  I grew up in South Bend, but this is my 9th winter here, and it never ceases to amaze me at how difficult it is to get a system with southern stream interaction (basically anything other than a clipper) to be all-snow here.  It would take quite a substantial adjustment within 48 hours to bring anything of note down here, but looks like a nice system for I-70 and north.

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Nice! So is it safe to say we have one outlier here, that being the useless "long range" NAM?

 

well the uk too lol.   Euro track is probably pretty close to the final say....which, per usual is going to mean we have no fingernails or hair left by the time Sunday rolls around.   Those wxbell maps are fun but we all know they bias on the southern edge which means we are balancing on the razors edge YET AGAIN.    I guess at this point we look and hope for subtle trends in the ncep and watch to see if the nam starts to cave.    Rooting for a more progressive northern stream, more HP nudging in and weaker low.   50/50 shot it goes either way.

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well the uk too lol.   Euro track is probably pretty close to the final say....which, per usual is going to mean we have no fingernails or hair left by the time Sunday rolls around.   Those wxbell maps are fun but we all know they bias on the southern edge which means we are balancing on the razors edge YET AGAIN.    I guess at this point we look and hope for subtle trends in the ncep and watch to see if the nam starts to cave.    Rooting for a more progressive northern stream, more HP nudging in and weaker low.   50/50 shot it goes either way.

Ooops, sorry. Forgot about old reliable! LOL. Oh, and I guess we should see what the JMA does!

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man this is going to be a heartbreak storm for someone between Columbus and the river

Agreed.  I'm in northern Hamilton county and it will be SO CLOSE by!  I'm thinking morning 1-2, mostly washed away by snow, then a sloppy 1-2 at the tail end.  Could be quite a nasty commute Monday AM though as it ALL re-freezes with rapidly dropping temps into the teens.

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Agreed.  I'm in northern Hamilton county and it will be SO CLOSE by!  I'm thinking morning 1-2, mostly washed away by snow, then a sloppy 1-2 at the tail end.  Could be quite a nasty commute Monday AM though as it ALL re-freezes with rapidly dropping temps into the teens.

 

don't worry,  18z starts the south trend :weight_lift:

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