dilly84 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 this thing is a nail biter, although I have to admit I bit my finger tip off when I saw the ggem. However, before us I-70 thermal riders jump off the bridge, you have to dive deeper into the models. Then things don't look so bad. In fact I'm convinced we have just as much chance of watching the best go south of us as we do getting warm tongued. Sure anything can happen but that ggem run is probably horsesh*t. In fact looking at the Canadian ens the low goes from around new Orleans off VA, with an inverted trough into WV..... just a tad southeast of the OP As far as the euro, I actually liked the run, it made me want to sew my fingertip back on. It has a different look too, it's kind of like a bowling ball west to east event. That would be a nice juicy, spread the wealth storm. Also, the euro ens is southeast of the OP...surprise surprise. I like the gfs too, not as crazy as the 00z obviously, but the 06z was better for CMH already coming in a bit southeast/colder/weaker then the 00z... Ensembles are mostly southeast and weaker, with only a few amped solutions. As far as the special team model suite....the nogaps misses us completely with a weak low over the lakes and virtually no southern low. Same thing with the UK. So bottom line, this thing is totally open. Looks like I'm going to have to take on the role of head cheerleader for this one. We've totally lost Jb. So much for all of this. The models s**t in everyone's cereal in central ohio today. Sickening. I'll be shocked if they come back from this swing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 So much for all of this. The models s**t in everyone's cereal in central ohio today. Sickening. I'll be shocked if they come back from this swing. I'd be shocked if they didn't. It might not be ggem-esque but I think better chance than not that it comes back significantly. It really isn't going to take much to do it. A little stronger energy in the northern branch creating a little more buckling and we're off to the races. The energy is still out in lala land. I'm not a big fan of the excuse that the energy hasn't been fully sampled, but in this case I think it's a very valid issue. the energy that will make or break this is the area I circled. It already looks stronger on the nam then it did on the gfs. I realize extrapolating the nam at 84 hours is equal to chaos squared, but no doubt this would probably lead to a much more vigorous solution. So ask yourself, how well do you think that energy is going o be modeled 84 or 90 hours out? I think it's more likely to trend stronger. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 so this makes like 4 or 5 freezing rain advisories this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'd be shocked if they didn't. It might not be ggem-esque but I think better chance than not that it comes back significantly. It really isn't going to take much to do it. A little stronger energy in the northern branch creating a little more buckling and we're off to the races. The energy is still out in lala land. I'm not a big fan of the excuse that the energy hasn't been fully sampled, but in this case I think it's a very valid issue. the energy that will make or break this is the area I circled. It already looks stronger on the nam then it did on the gfs. I realize extrapolating the nam at 84 hours is equal to chaos squared, but no doubt this would probably lead to a much more vigorous solution. So ask yourself, how well do you think that energy is going o be modeled 84 or 90 hours out? I think it's more likely to trend stronger. JMHO The system will no doubt be stronger. Which, as Jbcmh said, will ultimately lead to mixing issues. We not only need it to be stronger, but more SE. Obviously I don't need to tell you the ideal spot for a phase. I don't think we will get a fully phased monster, but my doubts right now are more focused on this being a 6"+ system for us. If it's going to be another 2-3" snow then I hope it does get strung out. At this point if it isn't going to bring heavy snows I'd rather it bring nothing. I agree with the energy not yet being sampled. I'd also take the NAM with a grain of salt. It's been crap. The 18z gfs don't look much better than the 12z. May even look worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'd be shocked if they didn't. It might not be ggem-esque but I think better chance than not that it comes back significantly. It really isn't going to take much to do it. A little stronger energy in the northern branch creating a little more buckling and we're off to the races. The energy is still out in lala land. I'm not a big fan of the excuse that the energy hasn't been fully sampled, but in this case I think it's a very valid issue. the energy that will make or break this is the area I circled. It already looks stronger on the nam then it did on the gfs. I realize extrapolating the nam at 84 hours is equal to chaos squared, but no doubt this would probably lead to a much more vigorous solution. So ask yourself, how well do you think that energy is going o be modeled 84 or 90 hours out? I think it's more likely to trend stronger. JMHO Completely agree Buckeye. Unfortunately also agree with the others on ptype issues if it gets stronger. But it's something to watch and can't write off accumulations for you guys or us in Cincy yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 6+” for Cincy and up to 9” in Dayton area, lets give CMH a solid 8":http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=ILN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 6+” for Cincy and up to 9” in Dayton area, lets give CMH a solid 8": http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=ILN Models starting to come around and starting to come together!! Looking much better for a nice snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Ok...i admit...i am getting totally sucked in with the potential this one has!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ok...i admit...i am getting totally sucked in with the potential this one has!! Tread lightly lol. Still much uncertainty. Like they said in the storm thread. Best analog is pd2 which hammered us but still much uncertainty with regards to strength and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Snowing prettty good here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 0z runs haven't been good for us. The north trend could kill us. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 0z runs haven't been good for us. The north trend could kill us. Thoughts?Euro going that way too. I suppose wait for 12z to confirm but it doesn't look good and would be par for the course this winter. Unfortunately this was how I was thinking this would go at first but the 12z runs sucked me in LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Euro going that way too. I suppose wait for 12z to confirm but it doesn't look good and would be par for the course this winter. Unfortunately this was how I was thinking this would go at first but the 12z runs sucked me in LOL Not going to declare victory just yet, but yeah, I basically called this. Mixing with lower totals is probably pretty likely. First call: 3-4" for I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not going to declare victory just yet, but yeah, I basically called this. Mixing with lower totals is probably pretty likely. First call: 3-4" for I-70.Yep. I was with you on that one. But hoping oh so bad to be wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Thankfully the Euro is nearly double digits for all of i70. Hope still alive got another set of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 6z nam basically gives i70 3-5" snow. Nothing too special. Shifts the axis of heavy snow to i80. These models this year are ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 I will be happy with anything over 5 inches of snow ..But i would take 6-12 all day!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 6z nam basically gives i70 3-5" snow. Nothing too special. Shifts the axis of heavy snow to i80. These models this year are ridiculous. Just remember which model that is though. Lol. I don't want to toss it, but I sure don't trust it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Just remember which model that is though. Lol. I don't want to toss it, but I sure don't trust it at all. The issue is every model wasn't too great for us 0z except the Euro. And usually the euro is the best but after the blizzard bust I'm worried about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That is what I was thinking, but I'm even more worried about the NAM after its fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not going to declare victory just yet, but yeah, I basically called this. Mixing with lower totals is probably pretty likely. First call: 3-4" for I-70. this is what I get for going to bed early. some scary-a** runs last night. But I don't know...I'm definitely not ready to tap out on this one. I want to see what the 12z do. Euro still gives us 10", Gfs and nam are still good snows, and of course the ggem didn't go north. This reminds me of that storm last year, I think it was late Jan, early Feb. Euro had us barely in the heavy snow, the nam and the rgem were showing rain. Everyone was jumping off the bridge and we ended up with 10". In fact places in southern OH also did Ok. Oh well, this is how we do snowstorms, they're never clean on the models....especially the best ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Good points. I've noticed this winter that the trend has been north for most systems we've had within 48hrs. Then back south as the system gets closer. Anyone else see this? I like where I'm at at this point for 8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I was surprised to see we picked up @ 1" last night from the snow showers. Glad to see you're still on board for the weekend buckeye. The north trends are indeed a bit concerning, but we're not outta it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 well prepare yourselves....the sref don't look good (warmer further north),so the nam could continue in the wrong direction.... Personally I won't be using the nam as the determination whether to tag out....I'll be looking at the gfs/euro....We lose the euro this afternoon, then I'll clean out my locker. But of course we know what will happen, it will leave just enough tease to keep hope alive....and then pull the rug out later. on another note, this is a really odd evolution of a storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 on another note, this is a really odd evolution of a storm for us. Agreed. It can only come so far north and then tracks in a more easterly direction. Which just might save us. I still think we will see several inches even if it trends north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Agreed. It can only come so far north and then tracks in a more easterly direction. Which just might save us. I still think we will see several inches even if it trends north. 09 sref plume for cmh is 4", a drop off of about 2.5" from 03z. There's still 3 members above 8", and the highest is 13". But also a big cluster in the 2" and under. So yea, I suspect the 12z nam is going to be fugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So yea, I suspect the 12z nam is going to be fugly. I think it will tick north a bit more, but not enough to be a game changer. Unfortunately for CMH there is little wiggle room now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 well the bad news is the nam definitely was worse. The good news is the change to worse doesn't really occur until hour 45 or so, which is still goof time for the nam. Also it's clearly a fight with the low trying to drive itself into the banana high and the nam says the low is winning. If there is to be a unicorn-esque southern shift, this is the setup where it could happen. We need the high stronger and low weaker and the transfer east will happen quicker....or at least before that warm air can get too far north. just hold your judgement about my stubborn foolishness until after we lose the euro today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 this is what I get for going to bed early. some scary-a** runs last night. But I don't know...I'm definitely not ready to tap out on this one. I want to see what the 12z do. Euro still gives us 10", Gfs and nam are still good snows, and of course the ggem didn't go north. This reminds me of that storm last year, I think it was late Jan, early Feb. Euro had us barely in the heavy snow, the nam and the rgem were showing rain. Everyone was jumping off the bridge and we ended up with 10". In fact places in southern OH also did Ok. Oh well, this is how we do snowstorms, they're never clean on the models....especially the best ones. Not ready to completely give up, but that storm you're talking about is a historic rarity. And it did change to mix/rain eventually, just not before a good dumping first. However, one positive I will say is that Columbus has managed to be on the right side of more storms in recent years than it used to be. The last storm that was disappointing from a snow perspective because we changed over was February 2007. Since then, we've stayed on the right side. The February 5-6 2010 event is another good example. We were supposed to changed over and we were right on the line, but it ended up being a very heavy wet snow all day. But this has to end sometime. Our climo demands it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not ready to completely give up, but that storm you're talking about is a historic rarity. And it did change to mix/rain eventually, just not before a good dumping first. However, one positive I will say is that Columbus has managed to be on the right side of more storms in recent years than it used to be. The last storm that was disappointing from a snow perspective because we changed over was February 2007. Since then, we've stayed on the right side. The February 5-6 2010 event is another good example. We were supposed to changed over and we were right on the line, but it ended up being a very heavy wet snow all day. But this has to end sometime. Our climo demands it. agree. It seems a rainer is usually without doubt, (ie last January 5), but when we are straddling the 850 with models in disagreement we've been pulling off the coupes. If this turns out to suck....I'm already over it...that doesn't mean I'm not going to root hard for as much snow as possible and keep my weenie goggles on....but hell, if it rains it rains. We are definitely the battle hardened of the subforum.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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