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Let's talk Winter!


Steve

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12z runs of ggem and euro thru day 10.  Top is ggem , bottom euro.   Both accomplish these totals in 2 or 3 waves over the period.

 

meh, I've seen this before many times since the beginning of winter.   Long range models love to show a swath of snow up thru Ohio, only to have every solution fall apart somehow, someway.   At this point you gotta believe law of averages has to kick in....at some point?

Thanks Buck! Isn't that a lot tainted with ice as well?

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Nope. Way too dry. I say we may see a few flakes, but that's about it.

Well the next question wounld  be..Isn't everyone dry? I mean everyone is enjoying this artic blast and it is still snowing good in some places..It definately has come south some ..not really excited about it..but every inch of snow is good!!

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it'll be interesting to see what CMH records.  I have to admit I slept thru whatever we got....and can't tell because it's so blown around. 

I was awake around 3am and the radar was deep and green over parts of Franklin/Licking county. Snowed pretty good for an hour, about an inch. Then around 6am when that squall line came through - wow! ... a mini blizzard. Was awesome for 10 minutes. lol

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I have to say I've been disappointed in the lack of caa/lake effect action IMBY when you consider the severity of these cold shots coming thru.   We haven't even had decent snowshower activity much less squalls, (other than the one last night I guess).  

The Canadian seems to want to give us all another inch today...that's a reach.

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The trend was not our friend on the over night model runs. Ice ice baby.

 

euro ticked north...ggem has been well north  .  6zgfs actually brings the 2m 0 line further north than the 850 0 line which implies a cold rain.

Barring any changes in the 12z run my call is a freezing rain advisory for Sunday night....< .10" of ice, changing over to light rain, and maybe back to some insignificant snow showers flurries Monday.    Then cold and dry until our warm up HOPEFULLY kicks in.

 

It's amazing to me that storms/systems generating from the south this winter have all been FAILS for the entire subforum.   The snow from this will probably just be a thin stripe of light to mod accums somewhere across northern OH and IN.

 

We'll see what the last hope is on the 12z runs....but silly to expect the euro is going to change much at this point.  

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nam looks like crap for us....it's a predominantly cold rain event.     The recent and current cold only masked how putrid this winter has actually been.  

This is one of those years where everything possible to prevent a good snow from occurring is going to happen.  We need southern systems to cooperate if we want any chance of salvaging something....that just isn't in the cards this winter.   No glory or fun sitting in subzero temps, tracking the next rain event in 24 hours....welcome to the WTOD hell zone.

  

Seriously f#ck this and bring on a 2011 repeat run to finish out the winter.

 

rant/whine over :)  Have a good weekend all...GO BUCKS!!     (p.s. if we have another cold summer I swear I'm going to :gun_bandana:...and move south)

 

lol...12z nam text thru 84 hrs.   We start the period at -2, end the period at 13.   90% of precip falls at the warmest time, 32.6, with +2 850's.   You literally can't construct a better slap-in-the-face scenario for weenies.

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after seeing the 18z nam, I don't think there will be any need for any headlines from ILN.   Really blasting the temps.   This is looking like one of those old fashioned nw trenders we use to deal with years ago... :oldman: ....the ones where the NAM picked it up first 24 hours out and ended up being right.  

Nothing like taking a break from the bitter cold to work in some 34 degree rains.  :deadhorse:

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after seeing the 18z nam, I don't think there will be any need for any headlines from ILN.   Really blasting the temps.   This is looking like one of those old fashioned nw trenders we use to deal with years ago... :oldman: ....the ones where the NAM picked it up first 24 hours out and ended up being right.  

Nothing like taking a break from the bitter cold to work in some 34 degree rains.  :deadhorse:

And ILN puts up a WWA.

 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

400 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015

INZ050-058-059-066-073-074-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-

070>072-077-110500-

/O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0002.150111T1800Z-150112T2100Z/

WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-HARDIN-

MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-

CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-

GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-

HAMILTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...

BROOKVILLE...VERSAILLES...LAWRENCEBURG...KENTON...CELINA...

WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...BELLEFONTAINE...MARYSVILLE...

DELAWARE...PIQUA...URBANA...SPRINGFIELD...LONDON...COLUMBUS...

NEWARK...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA...WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...

CIRCLEVILLE...LANCASTER...HAMILTON...LEBANON...WILMINGTON...

CINCINNATI

400 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST

MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH

IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF

INTERSTATE 70 AND LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION SOUTH

OF INTERSTATE 70. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN

INCH. SOME LIGHT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED

VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ICING WILL CAUSE

SOME ROADS AND SIDEWALKS TO BECOME SLIPPERY.

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Not sure who or what to believe..local mets said temps should stay steady untill midnight..then rise just a little..well here in Newark the high was around 16..it is now between 5-10 degrees depending what weather station you observe..Hmmm

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