pondo1000 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 12z runs of ggem and euro thru day 10. Top is ggem , bottom euro. Both accomplish these totals in 2 or 3 waves over the period. meh, I've seen this before many times since the beginning of winter. Long range models love to show a swath of snow up thru Ohio, only to have every solution fall apart somehow, someway. At this point you gotta believe law of averages has to kick in....at some point? Thanks Buck! Isn't that a lot tainted with ice as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Thanks Buck! Isn't that a lot tainted with ice as well? yea, probably a third at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Think we get that inch of snow tonight just in time to mess up rush hour tomorrow morning?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Think we get that inch of snow tonight just in time to mess up rush hour tomorrow morning?? Nope. Way too dry. I say we may see a few flakes, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Nope. Way too dry. I say we may see a few flakes, but that's about it. Well the next question wounld be..Isn't everyone dry? I mean everyone is enjoying this artic blast and it is still snowing good in some places..It definately has come south some ..not really excited about it..but every inch of snow is good!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Just eyeballing the radar it looks good - it will be interesting to see how much reaches the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Just eyeballing the radar it looks good - it will be interesting to see how much reaches the ground. Radar is looking good..we will see how much is virga! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/newark-oh/43055/weather-warnings/18383_pc..This lol..not a flake!! Click on the special weather statement!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Picked up around 1.5" by last night. That squall line when it came through was rippin". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Picked up around 1.5" by last night. That squall line when it came through was rippin". it'll be interesting to see what CMH records. I have to admit I slept thru whatever we got....and can't tell because it's so blown around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 it'll be interesting to see what CMH records. I have to admit I slept thru whatever we got....and can't tell because it's so blown around. I was awake around 3am and the radar was deep and green over parts of Franklin/Licking county. Snowed pretty good for an hour, about an inch. Then around 6am when that squall line came through - wow! ... a mini blizzard. Was awesome for 10 minutes. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I have to say I've been disappointed in the lack of caa/lake effect action IMBY when you consider the severity of these cold shots coming thru. We haven't even had decent snowshower activity much less squalls, (other than the one last night I guess). The Canadian seems to want to give us all another inch today...that's a reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 Sunday night Monday could be interesting!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Sunday night Monday could be interesting!! The euro did trend a bit colder for us, although buckeye said it ticked a bit north. This is gonna be a thread the needle scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The euro did trend a bit colder for us, although buckeye said it ticked a bit north. This is gonna be a thread the needle scenario. I probably should clarify, precip ticked a bit north... If it's colder, that's a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I probably should clarify, precip ticked a bit north... If it's colder, that's a good thing.Looked colder to me as well. I still think the set up screams freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Looked colder to me as well. I still think the set up screams freezing rain. colder could mean less frz rain and more sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Euro is staying colder but NAM torches it up Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Euro is staying colder but NAM torches it up Monday! 06Z NAM is colder. Hopefully a trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 06Z NAM is colder. Hopefully a trend? The trend was not our friend on the over night model runs. Ice ice baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The trend was not our friend on the over night model runs. Ice ice baby. euro ticked north...ggem has been well north . 6zgfs actually brings the 2m 0 line further north than the 850 0 line which implies a cold rain. Barring any changes in the 12z run my call is a freezing rain advisory for Sunday night....< .10" of ice, changing over to light rain, and maybe back to some insignificant snow showers flurries Monday. Then cold and dry until our warm up HOPEFULLY kicks in. It's amazing to me that storms/systems generating from the south this winter have all been FAILS for the entire subforum. The snow from this will probably just be a thin stripe of light to mod accums somewhere across northern OH and IN. We'll see what the last hope is on the 12z runs....but silly to expect the euro is going to change much at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 nam looks like crap for us....it's a predominantly cold rain event. The recent and current cold only masked how putrid this winter has actually been. This is one of those years where everything possible to prevent a good snow from occurring is going to happen. We need southern systems to cooperate if we want any chance of salvaging something....that just isn't in the cards this winter. No glory or fun sitting in subzero temps, tracking the next rain event in 24 hours....welcome to the WTOD hell zone. Seriously f#ck this and bring on a 2011 repeat run to finish out the winter. rant/whine over Have a good weekend all...GO BUCKS!! (p.s. if we have another cold summer I swear I'm going to ...and move south) lol...12z nam text thru 84 hrs. We start the period at -2, end the period at 13. 90% of precip falls at the warmest time, 32.6, with +2 850's. You literally can't construct a better slap-in-the-face scenario for weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I tried to warn you guys to keep expectations pretty low. We may still get a decent event or two this winter, but December pretty much guaranteed a terrible winter based on climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 after seeing the 18z nam, I don't think there will be any need for any headlines from ILN. Really blasting the temps. This is looking like one of those old fashioned nw trenders we use to deal with years ago... ....the ones where the NAM picked it up first 24 hours out and ended up being right. Nothing like taking a break from the bitter cold to work in some 34 degree rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Yeah, I don't know, I'm concerned that the NAM might be eroding the low level cold air too quickly. This setup, to me, screams a freezing rain setup. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 after seeing the 18z nam, I don't think there will be any need for any headlines from ILN. Really blasting the temps. This is looking like one of those old fashioned nw trenders we use to deal with years ago... ....the ones where the NAM picked it up first 24 hours out and ended up being right. Nothing like taking a break from the bitter cold to work in some 34 degree rains. And ILN puts up a WWA. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 400 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015 INZ050-058-059-066-073-074-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065- 070>072-077-110500- /O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0002.150111T1800Z-150112T2100Z/ WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-HARDIN- MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI- CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY- GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON- HAMILTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY... BROOKVILLE...VERSAILLES...LAWRENCEBURG...KENTON...CELINA... WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...BELLEFONTAINE...MARYSVILLE... DELAWARE...PIQUA...URBANA...SPRINGFIELD...LONDON...COLUMBUS... NEWARK...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA...WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE... CIRCLEVILLE...LANCASTER...HAMILTON...LEBANON...WILMINGTON... CINCINNATI 400 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. SOME LIGHT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ICING WILL CAUSE SOME ROADS AND SIDEWALKS TO BECOME SLIPPERY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 And ILN puts up a WWA. curious to read their discussion, thoughts, which models they are leaning on. Clearly not the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Probably a good decision by ILN. Even if actual ice amounts are small, you gotta keep in mind that it's been very cold the past few days so even with marginal air temps, surfaces will lag and the roads could be a skating rink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 Not sure who or what to believe..local mets said temps should stay steady untill midnight..then rise just a little..well here in Newark the high was around 16..it is now between 5-10 degrees depending what weather station you observe..Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Well, I think I can officially say I'm about to throw in the towel for this winter. I always get annoyed when we warm up just long enough to rain, only to drop back well below freezing after it's passed. With that being said.. GO BUCKEYES!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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