Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Let's talk Winter!


Steve

Recommended Posts

That would be sweet to add on to whatever we get tonight. Whatever falls will stick on Wed that is for sure and w/ pretty good "fluff meter" in effect!

 

those setups can produce for us...not unheard of to pull out 1-3".   Remember the squalls that came in the day after the clipper late last January?   I think we picked up like 3 or 4" that day.

 

To continue the glass-half full mode, both the ggem and euro bring a low up to our southeast hr 216.   Euro is pretty bullish with it with several inches of snow to Ohio. 

 

Meanwhile the Canadian brings another clipper thru Ohio with similar qpf amounts as the current clipper...on Friday.

 

Wow this isn't like me being all optimistic...don't get use to it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

so ILN is going 3-5" for CMH, didn't feel 6" min would be achieved....sounds good.

 

Ok, not meaning to leapfrog the clipper, (we've pretty much dissected that all we can),   I was always interested in the squall potential on Wednesday.  The flow off lake Michigan is perfect for those long, (rare), fetches that can set up and give some quick loving to the area, not to mention caa.

  

ILN mentioned this in the AFD:

 

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE LOW LEVEL CORE OF COLDEST AIR WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA

THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE

DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC

FLOW/CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LEAD TO THE

POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. BOTH THE

12Z NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING A DECENT 1.5 PV ANOMALY DROPPING DOWN

THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SOME

ENHANCEMENT TO THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER ACROSS ABOUT THE

NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF OUR FA. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY

HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

MEANWHILE...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN

SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS IN

THE 5 TO 15 BELOW RANGE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT

HOURS. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF

OUR AREA...SUB ZERO TEMPS ARE A GOOD BET WITH WIND CHILL READINGS

ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE 15 TO 30 BELOW RANGE POSSIBLE.

 

 

March 1, 2005 comes to mind with the long lake fetch. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

those setups can produce for us...not unheard of to pull out 1-3".   Remember the squalls that came in the day after the clipper late last January?   I think we picked up like 3 or 4" that day.

 

To continue the glass-half full mode, both the ggem and euro bring a low up to our southeast hr 216.   Euro is pretty bullish with it with several inches of snow to Ohio. 

 

Meanwhile the Canadian brings another clipper thru Ohio with similar qpf amounts as the current clipper...on Friday.

 

Wow this isn't like me being all optimistic...don't get use to it.

12z still has this? I thought it dropped it?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5"-6" between Columbus and Circleville.  KCMH had 4.5" at 5am, so probably a bit more than that and closer to 5".

 

I didn't measure with a tape or anything but it looked like a solid 3" imby.   One of those rare times when the airport does better than I do.  Although you could even tell on radar that from about I-70 and south the radar returns were better.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

those setups can produce for us...not unheard of to pull out 1-3".   Remember the squalls that came in the day after the clipper late last January?   I think we picked up like 3 or 4" that day.

 

To continue the glass-half full mode, both the ggem and euro bring a low up to our southeast hr 216.   Euro is pretty bullish with it with several inches of snow to Ohio. 

 

Meanwhile the Canadian brings another clipper thru Ohio with similar qpf amounts as the current clipper...on Friday.

 

Wow this isn't like me being all optimistic...don't get use to it.

 

self bump....this looks like fail /\.   I was really thinking we'd have better snowshower activity today with that cold air coming in.  Granted activity has increased over northeastern OH and points immediately west....so maybe we can still squeak something out this evening.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ILN regarding Sun/Mon.   Like I've said earlier in this thread, we've had an unusual amount of freezing rain events already, albeit minor.   Might be a signal that this is the year for a good ole fashioned icestorm.  It's been a long time.  Actually I think it was the GHD storm a few years ago, but that turned over to plain rain before things got too ugly.

 

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HAVE PULLED MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AND MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SQUEEZE OUT PRECIP OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS A
FREEZING RAIN EVENT. AS THE FORECAST AND SYSTEM UNFOLDS...WE
WILL HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR THE CHANGEABLE PTYPES BUT COMING FROM A
COLD SNAP THE PROBABILITY OF A FREEZING RAIN INCREASES A BUNCH AND
IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED AS THE PROBABLE PTYPE. HWO HAS/WILL BE
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ILN regarding Sun/Mon.   Like I've said earlier in this thread, we've had an unusual amount of freezing rain events already, albeit minor.   Might be a signal that this is the year for a good ole fashioned icestorm.  It's been a long time.  Actually I think it was the GHD storm a few years ago, but that turned over to plain rain before things got too ugly.

 

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HAVE PULLED MOISTURE INTO

THE REGION AND MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SQUEEZE OUT PRECIP OVERNIGHT

AND EARLY MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS A

FREEZING RAIN EVENT. AS THE FORECAST AND SYSTEM UNFOLDS...WE

WILL HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR THE CHANGEABLE PTYPES BUT COMING FROM A

COLD SNAP THE PROBABILITY OF A FREEZING RAIN INCREASES A BUNCH AND

IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED AS THE PROBABLE PTYPE. HWO HAS/WILL BE

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.

Hopefully the qpf will be on the light side.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Buckeye, next week does look like something to watch. Euro keeps us mostly ice (Cincy and Cbus) but light QPF. Hopefully that qpf stays light if its ice. What does not seem likely is heavy snow. Looks like mid-levels will warm. Question is, do we get a strong enough wave to pump surface temps above freezing?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, the NAM has upped the snow for Thursday with each of the last 4 runs... from 0.04" to 0.11" at 0z.  With solid ratios, that could be a few inches.  GFS has barely anything.

 

sref mean is right at 1 inch.   I think 1" is the top end and .5" is the most likely.   I think we wake up tomorrow with a thick dusting lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Buckeye, next week does look like something to watch. Euro keeps us mostly ice (Cincy and Cbus) but light QPF. Hopefully that qpf stays light if its ice. What does not seem likely is heavy snow. Looks like mid-levels will warm. Question is, do we get a strong enough wave to pump surface temps above freezing?

 

Every model brings light precip to I-70.   But I agree, very little room for anything to get stronger and not cause a plain rain changeover.  Worst case scenario, (if you are rooting against an icestorm), is precip starts modeling heavier, without necessarily a stronger low.

 

I was intrigued with something after that coming up out of the gulf but models have really backed off.  Euro has it but it's a miss to the southeast and it's a warm storm with only snow in the apps.  After that the moderation begins.

 

I feel like after the moderate period ends, we go into a very changeable pattern...with transient cold and warm.  Doesn't feel like we'd have either a torch Feb or a locked in cold pattern either.   Transient, variable, patterns can deliver memorable events....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z runs of ggem and euro thru day 10.  Top is ggem , bottom euro.   Both accomplish these totals in 2 or 3 waves over the period.

 

meh, I've seen this before many times since the beginning of winter.   Long range models love to show a swath of snow up thru Ohio, only to have every solution fall apart somehow, someway.   At this point you gotta believe law of averages has to kick in....at some point?

post-622-0-71282700-1420743500_thumb.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...