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Let's talk Winter!


Steve

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It feels awesome out there, 47 on campus a little after noon! There's been some frozen stuff with a couple of showers here since 11AM, probably small hail with surface temps only falling into the lower 40's under the showers, but it looks like sleet and is a direct result of it being cold enough in the low levels for these tiny showers to even produce anything frozen, so we'll call it "cool"...frost advisory for here tonight although with dews expected to fall into the upper 20's a freeze wouldn't shock me in this valley if winds can decouple for even a few hours late tonight.

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It feels awesome out there, 47 on campus a little after noon! There's been some frozen stuff with a couple of showers here since 11AM, probably small hail with surface temps only falling into the lower 40's under the showers, but it looks like sleet and is a direct result of it being cold enough in the low levels for these tiny showers to even produce anything frozen, so we'll call it "cool"...frost advisory for here tonight although with dews expected to fall into the upper 20's a freeze wouldn't shock me in this valley if winds can decouple for even a few hours late tonight.

Same here a few minutes ago.

Tried to get a video, but it sucked.

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Same here a few minutes ago.

Tried to get a video, but it sucked.

I tried taking a picture of two ice pellets on my car, and that also sucked :P

My roomate said it was enough to start covering the ground for a few seconds a bit before 11am, but I wasn't even looking outside. Eric Elwell tweeted a pic of either ice pellets or grauple nicely covering the ground in New Albany. Pretty cool for early October I think.

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The next two and a half months are for fun speculation.   In the meantime I'll take 50's and 60's, blue sky, and quiet until mid December.

 

Hardy har har. You'll be chomping at the bit for a major dump the day after Thanksgiving, just like the rest of us weenies.

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Okay, so looking back, I can't actually find an earlier first trace of snow than what occurred today. 

 

Here are the top 10 earliest traces.

 

1. 10/4/2014

2. 10/10/1906

3. 10/12/1917

4. 10/12/1921

5. 10/14/1937

6. 10/16/1943

7. 10/16/2004

8. 10/19/1880

9. 10/19/1925

10. 10/20/1888

 

There are some very good winters in there and some very terrible ones, so not much can be said just based on this one metric.  However, what happens if both the first trace of snow and the first measurable snow occur in October?

 

Those years were: 1880, 1917, 1925, 1954, 1962, 1989, 1993 and 2012.  Aside from 1954 and the latter half of 1989, this is an awesome list to be on in terms of snow and/or cold.  So let's root for an accumulating snow this month. 

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The next two and a half months are for fun speculation.   In the meantime I'll take 50's and 60's, blue sky, and quiet until mid December.

 

Completely agree with you. I am a pretty big winter enthusiast as I board, ski, and snowmobile. But I also enjoy all 4 seasons. I start cheering for winter around mid November to Mid March. Any other time I want sunny skies and warmth! There has only been one storm in October to get excited about as it was such an insane anomaly. That was the October 12th/13th 2006 storm where over 2 feet of heavy wet snow fell on fully leafed trees. The city and surrounding suburbs lost 75% of the total tree population. Such anomalies are not good for the environment.

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My mom's deck south of Columbus this morning.  Looks like a sleet/hail mix to me. 

 

Edit: Port Columbus did record an official trace of snow today, which is extremely early.  I'll post some stats here in a bit on early snow.

 

Yep, I was out, (in Upper Arlington), yesterday morning and I can confirm sleet, grapple (sp?), mix.   Temp on my car thermometer dropped from 41 to 35 during this time too.   

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Hardy har har. You'll be chomping at the bit for a major dump the day after Thanksgiving, just like the rest of us weenies.

 

Well ok, I can't deny that from this point moving forward, if the models are showing a storm moving from the gulf to State College with an unseasonable cold airmass in place, my eyebrows, ears, and nips will all be at full perk.

 

That being said, I'm not actually rooting for that scenario to unfold before December.   Also,if we are going to get another January 5th, 2014 storm track, that crap better happen before December  :angry:

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  • 2 weeks later...

 

 

Well ok, I can't deny that from this point moving forward, if the models are showing a storm moving from the gulf to State College with an unseasonable cold airmass in place, my eyebrows, ears, and nips will all be at full perk.

 

That being said, I'm not actually rooting for that scenario to unfold before December.   Also,if we are going to get another January 5th, 2014 storm track, that crap better happen before December  :angry:

 

 

Yes let's get all of these systems like today out of the way before December!

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enso...shmenso     analogs....shmanalogs   indices...shmindices

 

this will be a very forgettable, average winter in Central Ohio...which will seem like a dud after last winter.

 

Going with 24-28" for the season   1 decent storm of 6+", a couple of 3-5" events, and a few nickels and dimes.  Will have to break out the snow blower twice.     Average temps with maybe one short period of zero/subzero temps and a few warm spells.    Spring breaks early and a hot summer follows.

 

Book it

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enso...shmenso     analogs....shmanalogs   indices...shmindices

 

this will be a very forgettable, average winter in Central Ohio...which will seem like a dud after last winter.

 

Going with 24-28" for the season   1 decent storm of 6+", a couple of 3-5" events, and a few nickels and dimes.  Will have to break out the snow blower twice.     Average temps with maybe one short period of zero/subzero temps and a few warm spells.    Spring breaks early and a hot summer follows.

 

Book it

 

Life in a city straddling the sub-tropic boundary.

 

I'm joking... that's Cincinnati.

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so JB's winter forecast is out and he basically targets the Ohio Valley for greatest above normal snowfall departure (167%).   The axis is a line from western TN to northern VT, right up the ohio river.  Southeastern 2/3rd of Ohio included in this area.

 

Interesting that this lines up very closely with OHweather's thinking, (I have more faith in his forecasting than JB's).

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