WxBlue Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Climo came in at 81/57/10/0.00, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Yeah, and the wind has died down since then... so oh well. I still am happy with my score in city 1. Congrats to all here, who I believe finished better than National Consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Just out of curiousity, do you folks down at Penn St do a forecast discussion for the wxchallenge each day? I just looked at the forecasts coming from you guys and they are all wicked similar......just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Just out of curiousity, do you folks down at Penn St do a forecast discussion for the wxchallenge each day? I just looked at the forecasts coming from you guys and they are all wicked similar......just wondering. Interesting isn't it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Just out of curiousity, do you folks down at Penn St do a forecast discussion for the wxchallenge each day? I just looked at the forecasts coming from you guys and they are all wicked similar......just wondering. Yeah, we have a class. Actually two classes, but I teach one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Yeah, we have a class. Actually two classes, but I teach one of them. Wow no kidding. That's kind of cool. Wish we had a forecast discussion class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Wow no kidding. That's kind of cool. Wish we had a forecast discussion class. Yeah, it's a pretty cool deal. The students tend to come in without much forecast experience, but the feedback is generally very positive. They say they learn a heck of a lot in there. There's no replacement to actually forecasting if you wanna be a better forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 I think most of the top teams have password-protected tools which can be quite helpful and explains some of the score clustering. I guess one of the top teams left theirs unprotected over the summer...although knowledge tends to spread eventually as people move around from undergrad to grad school. Looks like Butte had a 39F diurnal cycle recently :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 I think most of the top teams have password-protected tools which can be quite helpful and explains some of the score clustering. I guess one of the top teams left theirs unprotected over the summer...although knowledge tends to spread eventually as people move around from undergrad to grad school. Looks like Butte had a 39F diurnal cycle recently :-) Billings had a 44F diurnal cycle in 2012 when we had to forecast there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Billings had a 44F diurnal cycle in 2012 when we had to forecast there. I liked Billings. I had the low forecast error for wind that week which I was proud of considering they were near like 30 kts every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 It looks like Butte is another one of those locations where the ASOS site is at the end of an airport runway. Is the person who created the elevation images for the forecast city still here? Would really like to be able to see how much of a bowl Butte sits in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Is it safe to say Butte really does well with southerly winds? From what I see with the terrain it looks sorta open to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Is it safe to say Butte really does well with southerly winds? From what I see with the terrain it looks sorta open to the south.My first thought was southerly winds wouldn't do well with the mountains to the south, but looking closer it looks like there's a decent area of open terrain to the SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Had to forecast early tonight and all I got to say is good luck figuring this city out... There will be big spread tomorrow, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Wish there was a wind rose for BTM I could find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 There's this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 http://www.heywhatsthat.com/?view=K7K3T6HO Elevation plan view (360 degrees) Also windrose: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/windrose/climate/monthly/10/BTM_oct.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Anyone know how I can access the Daily Climate Report for Butte,MT (CLI). I went to the national weather service site in Great Falls, MT and it is not listed there under the cities. Any climo would be good if I can't get that. The only thing I'm looking at right now is the 3-day history from the ASOS station. I have a feeling winds are going to be the most challenging for this city. There's probably going to be a big spectrum of numbers for the winds I can see it already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 http://www.heywhatsthat.com/?view=K7K3T6HO Elevation plan view (360 degrees) Also windrose: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/windrose/climate/monthly/10/BTM_oct.png Thanks for posting this! Very helpful. With this in mind I gotta think winds from the west and southwest overnight will have trouble reaching the surface overnight. If that's the case only mid to high level cloud cover would put a damper on otherwise ideal radiational cooling conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Anyone know how I can access the Daily Climate Report for Butte,MT (CLI). I went to the national weather service site in Great Falls, MT and it is not listed there under the cities. Any climo would be good if I can't get that. The only thing I'm looking at right now is the 3-day history from the ASOS station. I have a feeling winds are going to be the most challenging for this city. There's probably going to be a big spectrum of numbers for the winds I can see it already. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=CLI&issuedby=BTM It's issued by the Missoula NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 69/32/20/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 67/37/23... not confident on any of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 71 / 33 / 22 / 0 probably reaching on the high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted October 14, 2014 Author Share Posted October 14, 2014 68/32/21/0 Distribution going to be all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 I ended up being the consensus of 67/35/17. Wasn't confident on the winds so played it more conservative than I probably should be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 69/36/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 70/33/21/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 lol all these replies right after 8pm, I figured everyone was forecasting up to the last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 mine...70/31/19/0.00 I am worried most about the high I can see it only getting into the low to mid 60s tomorrow. NAM showing 16-18C 850Hpa temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 lol all these replies right after 8pm, I figured everyone was forecasting up to the last minuteNo, we just tell our forecasts after so no one gets influenced by our numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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