OHweather Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Me: 78/62/12/0.30" Competition: 74/62/12/0.40" Low level easterly flow advecting in rather poor lapse rates below about 500mb overnight should cause the ongoing convection to stay to their west/dissipate before getting to KLIT later tonight, however like last night am expecting blow off to influence lows so went a bit warmer than MOS. For tomorrow the best low to mid level jet appears to be along the Gulf Coast during the morning, so if the activity to their west now doesn't make it there they may see a decent period of filtered sun so I went a little warmer than what some models suggested. I doubt they get as warm as today. For precip think they may have a hard time getting a lot...poor low to mid level lapse rates may limit CAPE and although the flow aloft is still somewhat divergent it isn't as divergent as today. In addition I don't see any surface boundaries nearby and I believe convection will be more prevalent to their south through a good portion of the day which may limit any attempt to advect in steeper lapse rates and also limit moisture return and keep CAPE rather modest. PWATs also look to be suppressed to their south initially. Later in the period uncertainty increases as a secondary area of low pressure develops. The 18z NAM solution looked fishy to me (possibly convective feedback) as my interpretation of the upper level charts on the NAM/GFS places the best upper level divergence a little SE of KLIT tomorrow evening...so I think the NAM/many SREF members may be intensifying the low too quickly and bringing it too far NW which would cause more precip to fall on KLIT...I went more with the Euro solution which is a little bit farther SE and only grazes them with the better precip tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 I would normally be happy with my forecast today but not much I can do when my opponent nails the high and low. I have 1.5 points to make up and plenty of ways to do it.Me: 75/61/10/0.18 Opponent: 74/62/12/0.37 Precip--two focal points for precip--first is the convection that formed on the dryline in Texas today. This should gradually move eastward but the atmosphere is stabilizing so it should slowly die out like last night. Mostly this will serve to bring in cirrus and possibly focus the developing precip tomorrow. The more important feature is a shortwave that ejects on Saturday afternoon--leading to cyclogenesis over northern LA. The position of that surface low is key since it will be associated with widespread heavy precip. The NAM and ECMWF have the low basically along the Mississippi...the 12Z GFS was farther east but the 18Z came more in line with the ECMWF. This setup brings some precip to KLIT in the evening, but keeps the heavier stuff to the east. PWAT values are decent in the late afternoon, but there is less instability and not much help from surface heating. However, there should be enough forcing to get at least some precip going. Not sure how heavy or widespread it will be though. Low temp--the more reliable guidance is at 62-63, but MOS is at 60. Slightly lower dew points and a chance for some clearing gives an outside shot that MOS could be correct. I decided to take a chance. High temp--NAM MOS somehow reaches 80 despite being cloudy most of the day, everything else is 72-76. Temps at 850 are a tad cooler than today. Not much help from the sun, but it still should get to the mid-70s if the precip holds off until the late afternoon. I'm finished if the precip gets above 0.30", but there are a number of interesting scenarios if it stays below that. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 They already clouded back over and were stuck at 69 last hour. I may be in some trouble if they don't clear a little more. If the lower precip works out (which still isn't a certainty) a high of 76 would do the trick for me, but no lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 They already clouded back over and were stuck at 69 last hour. I may be in some trouble if they don't clear a little more. If the lower precip works out (which still isn't a certainty) a high of 76 would do the trick for me, but no lower. HRRR and radar trends suggest the rain is weakening. I'm nervous because of the slow motion...all it takes is one little cell to sit over the airport. But I'm definitely happy to be on the low end of precip at this juncture. If the precip gets about 0.20 I will probably lose...but that is getting less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 So I just played out the hypothetical scenarios...I really need the high to get to 75 and/or the wind to stay below 12 kt, otherwise I might end up losing by the tiebreaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 So I just played out the hypothetical scenarios...I really need the high to get to 75 and/or the wind to stay below 12 kt, otherwise I might end up losing by the tiebreaker.Precip looking like a nice whiff. I don't think the high will get warm enough for me to advance, but it was a fun year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Here comes the rain!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 0.43! So close, but in the end the rain finishes me off. Damn. Until next year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 0.43! So close, but in the end the rain finishes me off. Damn. Until next year!Up to 0.49". That one cell got them good. I think everyone here is done till next year now...I lost by 7-8 points this round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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