H2Otown_WX Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 As helpful as the mountain wave clouds were Day 1, they're as hurtful to my forecast for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Yea that climate report was confusing. For a second I thought 1145pm LST their time was before 6z. Isn't it? That's 0545 UTC (if they are observing daylight savings time)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Isn't it? That's 0545 UTC (if they are observing daylight savings time)... What's also confusing is that the ASOS 6z metar report didn't have the lowest temperature lower than 24F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Since it's LST as opposed to LDT I think that's 645z. Which sucks for me. If the high can somehow get to 50 today it would really help me but doesn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Since it's LST as opposed to LDT I think that's 645z. Which sucks for me. If the high can somehow get to 50 today it would really help me but doesn't look good. Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 60/31/22/0 Probably should've upped the winds and was planning on it but I got side tracked and the deadline passed, so I'll have to roll with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 60/30/24/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 59/31/26/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Stupid clouds screwed me on the wind and high once again at this place. I guess the cloud prog of the USL is good here. Who would have thought that? Anyways, felt like tomorrow since the USL has a very small percentage of clouds tomorrow that I can go warm and hit. Also hoping it clears out tonight and goes calm for a couple hours before sunrise too. Winds will probably be the same tomorrow as today. 61/28/26/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Was originally thinking about going 62-63 based on the NAM's potential mixing temperatures, but I couldn't find support for that big of a delta from yesterday in any other guidance, so I went with 61. Kinda wishing I had gone out on more of a limb, now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 29 kt wind today. Should have gone with 30 today instead of yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 29 kt wind today. Should have gone with 30 today instead of yesterday. Yeah Max was right, that cloud layer at 6 to 7 thousand feet made the difference with temperatures and winds yesterday vs. today. I let the wave clouds from yesterday scare me out of going 61 today. A classic case of "zigging when I should've zagged." Oh well. Sitting at 5th in the nation through week 1 so I can't complain too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 70/31/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 69/29/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 73/30/26/0 Took a stab well above guidance on the high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 69/29/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 72/28/25/0. Going for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 25? Whoa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 The potential was there, with clear skies and light winds. I had initially had 28F, but stupidly got cold feet and bumped up by a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 The potential was there, with clear skies and light winds. I had initially had 28F, but stupidly got cold feet and bumped up by a degree. You still did pretty good relative to consensus though... I was a little gunshy because the WRF-ARW (which had been exhibiting a cold bias the last week or so) was only going down to 29F. Oh well. My #'s 69/30/22/0.00 Looks like we will be battling this week for a possible Cat 2 Overall trophy Should be a great week to forecast too, with the threat of an upslope snowfall on Wednesday/Thursday. Thank god we got this city instead of Key West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 You still did pretty good relative to consensus though... I was a little gunshy because the WRF-ARW (which had been exhibiting a cold bias the last week or so) was only going down to 29F. Oh well. My #'s 69/30/22/0.00 Looks like we will be battling this week for a possible Cat 2 Overall trophy Should be a great week to forecast too, with the threat of an upslope snowfall on Wednesday/Thursday. Thank god we got this city instead of Key West. Yep! As long as there are no big surprises today, I'm 0.11 points behind the third place cat 2 in overall score. With three days left, that puts me within striking distance, I think! And as you say, you're very close behind me. Maybe with some luck, we could knock blzzrd and KFAT12 out, leaving russ99, you, and me at the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Went 59/30/26/0.01" Took the warmer end for the high because it looks like they may be fairly sunny until about 18-19z with good mixing, but we'll see how quickly the front moves through. Went a little high for the wind but with decent mixing in a CAA regime with a fairly strong pressure gradient I think the winds can overperform tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 53/31/26/0 Still trying to hang onto top forecaster spot at UNCA and trying to win both a city trophy in my final days as Cat. 4 forecaster and Top 3 trophy for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Went 59/30/26/0.01" Took the warmer end for the high because it looks like they may be fairly sunny until about 18-19z with good mixing, but we'll see how quickly the front moves through. Went a little high for the wind but with decent mixing in a CAA regime with a fairly strong pressure gradient I think the winds can overperform tomorrow. Similar thoughts, except on the low which I think cloud cover will move in behind FROPA and prevent any significant radiational cooling tomorrow night. Upslope flow won't really begin in earnest until after 06z, so I think its unlikely they recieve precipitation (unless a convective shower gets them). If it gets colder than my forecast low, it will likely have to happen tonight (and clouds are expected tonight too). 59/33/27/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 56/27/30/0...hope your low is wrong Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 55/30/26/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Similar thoughts, except on the low which I think cloud cover will move in behind FROPA and prevent any significant radiational cooling tomorrow night. Upslope flow won't really begin in earnest until after 06z, so I think its unlikely they recieve precipitation (unless a convective shower gets them). If it gets colder than my forecast low, it will likely have to happen tonight (and clouds are expected tonight too). 59/33/27/0.00 The NAM appeared to show some window for clear/somewhat calmer winds tomorrow evening, but if it stays cloudier the warmer low will work out. I was worried about a convective shower enough to go 0.01", although that's really just a play for 0.4 points if it rains so it doesn't really make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 The NAM appeared to show some window for clear/somewhat calmer winds tomorrow evening, but if it stays cloudier the warmer low will work out. I was worried about a convective shower enough to go 0.01", although that's really just a play for 0.4 points if it rains so it doesn't really make a difference. The Euro 2m temps. on wunderground definitely implied that they at least had the potential to go below 30F, despite not explicitly showing the contour right over them (just to the west). I'm definitely concerned about it though, NAM BUFKIT shows it being pretty well mixed right up through 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 So they're dropping the precipitation verification for day 7 at KMGM. Which is dumb. The precipitation values are consistent with what the radar depicted at the time. Moreover, all the RAB and RAE codes are in the METAR data, and the METARs properly reported precipitation for each hour during which they said there was precipitation. There is nothing in the METAR data, especially when the radar is taken into account, to suggest that the precipitation verification was in error. This has a significant negative impact on the potential for me, and Phil, to get a trophy. The current top-3 overall category 2 forecasters all had lower precipitation forecasts that day than I did, and I had a lower forecast than Phil did, and we were all too low. That means that dropping the precipitation verification will help the current top three significantly more than it will help me, and help me more than it helps Phil, thus the top three cat 2's solidify their lead, I fall further behind, and Phil even further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 So they're dropping the precipitation verification for day 7 at KMGM. Which is dumb. The precipitation values are consistent with what the radar depicted at the time. Moreover, all the RAB and RAE codes are in the METAR data, and the METARs properly reported precipitation for each hour during which they said there was precipitation. There is nothing in the METAR data, especially when the radar is taken into account, to suggest that the precipitation verification was in error. This has a significant negative impact on the potential for me, and Phil, to get a trophy. The current top-3 overall category 2 forecasters all had lower precipitation forecasts that day than I did, and I had a lower forecast than Phil did, and we were all too low. That means that dropping the precipitation verification will help the current top three significantly more than it will help me, and help me more than it helps Phil, thus the top three cat 2's solidify their lead, I fall further behind, and Phil even further. I'm on the opposite side of this type of story. Myself and Scott8 both had 0 precip for Day 7, which means I could end up with a trophy. I'm not sure exactly if they're planning on leaving the winds each day on 0. As of now I finished 2nd it Category 4 forecasters, and moved up a spot to 5th on the yearly cumulative scoring too. I still don't know exactly why they decided to make the precip change though, I didnt think anything was wrong with their precip reporting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.