H2Otown_WX Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 46/27/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 50/30/39/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 50/28/40/0 Mixing heights and temperatures on the NAM and GFS both suggested 5-6C cooler than today for the high (59F or 15C), which gives a range of about 48-50 for the high. Given what looks like dry low levels and more sun than today along with a little downslope (granted they downslope better on a WSW wind like today than a WNW wind like tomorrow but still looks like a little) I took the warmer end of that range. Low was tough, with strong winds keeping them fairly well mixed tonight initially went with 29 which was the warmer end of MOS, but the wet-bulb to 35F scared me a little bit so I went to 28. We'll see how much upside there is for the winds tomorrow...it looks like WNW winds funnel a little bit which will help. Per climo today they already had 31 knots as of 21z and probably got a little bit stronger after...the pressure gradient is very strong tomorrow morning, and even during the afternoon BL average winds on the GFS get above 40 knots (lower on the NAM, but the GFS appeared to do better with winds today). With strong mixing and perhaps a little bit of funneling through the valley think 40 knots is possible if the low level winds are stronger like the GFS shows. I think winds are my biggest risk for day 1. I was originally thinking your range on the winds, but two things swayed me away from it. First of all, btangy's site suggests that, climatologically, wind verifications above 38kts are pretty rare. Secondly, and more importantly, I looked at several days in the past 5 years with strong westerlies in March. All the days had a much higher GFS MOS wind forecast than the NAM MOS wind forecast, like tomorrow, and actual wind verifications were actually LOWER than the highest GFS MOS in the cases where the winds were in the 40-60kt range. In a couple cases I found with similar wind forecasts to tomorrow, winds verified either one knot higher or lower than the highest GFS MOS wind forecast. So I liked 36-38 as a range. That all being said, the potential is certainly there tomorrow for very strong (40kts+) winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 I was originally thinking your range on the winds, but two things swayed me away from it. First of all, btangy's site suggests that, climatologically, wind verifications above 38kts are pretty rare. Secondly, and more importantly, I looked at several days in the past 5 years with strong westerlies in March. All the days had a much higher GFS MOS wind forecast than the NAM MOS wind forecast, like tomorrow, and actual wind verifications were actually LOWER than the highest GFS MOS in the cases where the winds were in the 40-60kt range. In a couple cases I found with similar wind forecasts to tomorrow, winds verified either one knot higher or lower than the highest GFS MOS wind forecast. So I liked 36-38 as a range. That all being said, the potential is certainly there tomorrow for very strong (40kts+) winds. I was definitely taken aback by the stochastic winds only being in a 30-34 knot range. The one plus for me is the strongest winds typically are westerly at LAR. I am a bit concerned that past days with similar forecasts have verified lower than the GFS, which would hurt me. The one thing that swayed me up was the winds getting so strong today when they went W later in the afternoon and also the strong pressure gradient in the morning and strong mixing during the afternoon tomorrow. I've been burned before by going different than what past history says is more likely so hopefully that doesn't happen tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 48/31/40/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 46/29/37/0 I also had the feeling the GFS was overdoing the winds based on climo, but that only served to keep me out of the 40s. Went cold for the high tomorrow, but am second-guessing that since it looks like the extensive clouds/virga/drizzle should hold off until the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Already 32/27 with clear skies and a 5 knot wind. Winds should pick up later and limit the drop thereafter but we will see how cold it gets before that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Already 32/27 with clear skies and a 5 knot wind. Winds should pick up later and limit the drop thereafter but we will see how cold it gets before that happensBack up to 36F now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Back up to 36F now Figures that happens the next ob after I post about how cold it's getting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Figures that happens the next ob after I post about how cold it's getting and now back down to 33 and wsw at 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Looking like it's gonna be a wild ride in Laramie tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 I'm pretty annoyed with Wxchallenge right now. I was really busy last night after 7, so I made a forecast beforehand knowing I couldn't do it afterwards. So I made a preliminary forecast in the afternoon. At 630, I checked one last time and adjusted my low to 28 from the original 30 I had. Well, I check last night and it never went through. I didn't even get an email saying I changed it even though I know I submitted something different. This is the 2nd time in 2 years that's happened. I know I should check a little more thoroughly, but how about actually giving me what I forecast. Unreal. I need to hit everything else today to get off to a good start now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Clouds have moved in already at KLAR. It'll be interesting to see how much they can warm from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 I don't know about y'all, but I'm getting nervous about not getting 35+ knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Well day 1 is turning out to be terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Awful day for me today. 37/22/22/0.02 for tomorrow, we'll see how awful that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 37/22/24/0.02 Time to make up points I guess (or try to at least) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 If that 45 holds, that was a good start to KLAR for me. Anyway... 37/25/22/0.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 36/22/20/0.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 39/23/20/0.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Can a 6z min tonight salvage my day 2 forecast? Down to 25 now with clear skies/light winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Can a 6z min tonight salvage my day 2 forecast? Down to 25 now with clear skies/light winds... That's my hope as well (and also why I went as low as I did--definitely didn't think it would get down to 22F this morning). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Didn't think it'll get that cold so quickly :\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Went 50/23/25/0 Still believe my 22F for day 2 is quite possible, but it looks like winds may kick up near 6z and cause the overnight low to be before 6z which is why I went a bit warmer than my day 2 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 49/24/26/0 Me and my friend are currently in a battle to be top forecaster at UNCA and the yearly score are so close that all I have to do is to beat him by 0.5 point for this city to clinch top forecaster title. If we at least tied or he did better with this city, he get bragging rights over me. If the low stay at 25 for Day 2, I will have 4 points lead on him which is why I'm not gambling D3 or I would've gone 50-51 for high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Day 2 low is 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 53/23/30/0 Had to make a quick forecast earlier today--thinking the models are underdoing the high tomorrow like they did on the first day of the last two warmups. Wind was a calculated risk based on climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Day 2 low is 24 Yep... one hour later (per the climate report), it had gotten down to 22F... very frustrating for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Yep... one hour later (per the climate report), it had gotten down to 22F... very frustrating for me. Same as for me... hopefully I can at least make a point or two up on consensus today. Long week ahead to climb above consensus again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Yea that climate report was confusing. For a second I thought 1145pm LST their time was before 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.