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WxChallenge 2014-2015


Jurg

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You guys know that -999 on the wind still assigns points so people who went real low on the wind actually get less points. So basically the way they are going about it still hurts people who went higher on the winds. If I knew that's how they were going to do it. I would have went 0 knots for day 8.

 

Edit: Oh and changing it to zero instead of -999 still has the same issues.

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You guys know that -999 on the wind still assigns points so people who went real low on the wind actually get less points. So basically the way they are going about it still hurts people who went higher on the winds. If I knew that's how they were going to do it. I would have went 0 knots for day 8.

 

Edit: Oh and changing it to zero instead of -999 still has the same issues.

 

They're not going to verify at "-999" or "0"... they simply haven't decided WHAT they're going to do with it yet. If they don't come up with a reasonable verification, they're going to discount it entirely.

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50/28/40/0

 

Mixing heights and temperatures on the NAM and GFS both suggested 5-6C cooler than today for the high (59F or 15C), which gives a range of about 48-50 for the high. Given what looks like dry low levels and more sun than today along with a little downslope (granted they downslope better on a WSW wind like today than a WNW wind like tomorrow but still looks like a little) I took the warmer end of that range. Low was tough, with strong winds keeping them fairly well mixed tonight initially went with 29 which was the warmer end of MOS, but the wet-bulb to 35F scared me a little bit so I went to 28. We'll see how much upside there is for the winds tomorrow...it looks like WNW winds funnel a little bit which will help. Per climo today they already had 31 knots as of 21z and probably got a little bit stronger after...the pressure gradient is very strong tomorrow morning, and even during the afternoon BL average winds on the GFS get above 40 knots (lower on the NAM, but the GFS appeared to do better with winds today). With strong mixing and perhaps a little bit of funneling through the valley think 40 knots is possible if the low level winds are stronger like the GFS shows. I think winds are my biggest risk for day 1.

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