Max Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 77/59/11/0.33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 80/58/11/0.15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 80/58/12/0.28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 80/59/10/0. Part of me is still bitter about last weeks precip so I went 0 to screw myself over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 KMGM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I can tell everyone is on spring break... 83/61/11/0.07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I can tell everyone is on spring break... 83/61/11/0.07 I've given up on this city and am gambling big to get points back. If that doesn't work, this one will be my drop city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 81/63/10/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 82/62/13/0.10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Well the wind has been down all day... How is this supposed to work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Well the wind has been down all day... How is this supposed to work? we'll see if they have any winds in climo... otherwise my guess is that they will throw the wind forecast out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 18z OBS is completely missing. Hopibg we crack 80F so I at least have a shot at a cat4 trophy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Looks like the climo report is also missing winds (plus high/low). WxChallenge has been quiet since the start of ASOS problems in Montgomery so hopefully we will have a ruling soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Went 78/61/9/0 for tomorrow. That 82 today really helped me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 79/62/6/0. Going for a trophy tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 79/62/6/0. Going for a trophy tomorrow! Good luck! I'd be most worried about the wind, hard for it to stay that low but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Went 72/61/9/0 for tomorrow. That 82 today really helped me. 72F with no precip? Hmm... I don't understand that forecast. Been wrong before, though. 81/60/8/0 here. EDIT: Oh, I think you must've meant 78F, right? Makes a lot more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 72F with no precip? Hmm... I don't understand that forecast. Been wrong before, though. 81/60/8/0 here. EDIT: Oh, I think you must've meant 78F, right? Makes a lot more sense. I meant 78 Not sure what I got mixed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 81/62/9/0 One more push to get past my current drop score of -0.44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Good luck! I'd be most worried about the wind, hard for it to stay that low but you never know.Might not have to worry about winds at all::: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Might not have to worry about winds at all::: Yep, looks like no winds for day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 My typo high is looking better than what I actually forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Thankfully no 18z Max/Min. 62F low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 My typo high is looking better than what I actually forecast Yep. >_< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 You guys know that -999 on the wind still assigns points so people who went real low on the wind actually get less points. So basically the way they are going about it still hurts people who went higher on the winds. If I knew that's how they were going to do it. I would have went 0 knots for day 8. Edit: Oh and changing it to zero instead of -999 still has the same issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 You guys know that -999 on the wind still assigns points so people who went real low on the wind actually get less points. So basically the way they are going about it still hurts people who went higher on the winds. If I knew that's how they were going to do it. I would have went 0 knots for day 8. Edit: Oh and changing it to zero instead of -999 still has the same issues. They're not going to verify at "-999" or "0"... they simply haven't decided WHAT they're going to do with it yet. If they don't come up with a reasonable verification, they're going to discount it entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Should've gone with the higher wind. I think I'm safe if the 62 holds but it depends on what happens with the Day 7 winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 50/29/37/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 I'm not risking Day 1 with big numbers other than winds: 45/28/38 EDIT: Apparently I'm the one taking risk. Why is everybody going so warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 50/28/40/0 Mixing heights and temperatures on the NAM and GFS both suggested 5-6C cooler than today for the high (59F or 15C), which gives a range of about 48-50 for the high. Given what looks like dry low levels and more sun than today along with a little downslope (granted they downslope better on a WSW wind like today than a WNW wind like tomorrow but still looks like a little) I took the warmer end of that range. Low was tough, with strong winds keeping them fairly well mixed tonight initially went with 29 which was the warmer end of MOS, but the wet-bulb to 35F scared me a little bit so I went to 28. We'll see how much upside there is for the winds tomorrow...it looks like WNW winds funnel a little bit which will help. Per climo today they already had 31 knots as of 21z and probably got a little bit stronger after...the pressure gradient is very strong tomorrow morning, and even during the afternoon BL average winds on the GFS get above 40 knots (lower on the NAM, but the GFS appeared to do better with winds today). With strong mixing and perhaps a little bit of funneling through the valley think 40 knots is possible if the low level winds are stronger like the GFS shows. I think winds are my biggest risk for day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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