phil882 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Could be. Dew point is the lowest it's been all day, though, so maybe it's just the city bouncing around as it has done on sunny days in the past. EDIT: Then again, yesterday the dew point didn't respond to the sea breeze. Sometimes I think its more complicated than simply looking at the sea breeze at the surface. When there is decent mixing, you need to take the cumulative effect of winds in the boundary layer. My guess is that the bulk winds were still primarily offshore until near nightfall when the sea breeze winds dominate as the boundary layer became more shallow. That's why we see significant dewpoint recovery overnight as the boundary layer decouples from the mixed layer and you can moisten up the shallow boundary layer rather quickly with primarily onshore winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 79F it is ugh. Missed the temps by 1 both times today. And going 86/50/16/0 for day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 84/50/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Went 85/48/10/0 Would have the second cat 3 trophy spot after today, let's see what happens tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 13 knots that was unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 13 knots that was unexpected.Makes me worry about tomorrow. One person who can potentially tie or pass me went 14 knots tomorrow and you went deep with 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 85/49/10/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 85/48/11/0 Have been too warm on the low for most of this city, finally went colder so fully expecting it to stick in the 50s tonight. Seems like there should be more wind with the temp in the 80s but I guess they are not in a favorable position for gap flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 85/49/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 With the winds getting up today, it is now mathematically possible for me to win the city...I need: -High of 85 or higher -Low of 48 or lower -Wind of 10 knots or lower I have a little more room for a cat 3 trophy. Will be watching closely tomorrow. Am most worried about about winds getting higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Makes me worry about tomorrow. One person who can potentially tie or pass me went 14 knots tomorrow and you went deep with 16. I saw a few days with NE flow in the mid teens in knots when they got into the mid and upper 80s last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 With the winds getting up today, it is now mathematically possible for me to win the city...I need: -High of 85 or higher -Low of 48 or lower -Wind of 10 knots or lower I have a little more room for a cat 3 trophy. Will be watching closely tomorrow. Am most worried about about winds getting higher. I need the high to be 85+ and winds to be 12 or less for a cat 3 trophy now. Am most worried about the wind...the sea breeze is how they've gotten their strongest winds almost everyday here and today the models suggested any sea breeze would barely get to them if at all...but they'll mix well and that could cause strong enough winds for me to narrowly miss out. If the wind is 10 knots or less I can work with a cooler high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Wow, up 19F in 2 hours jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Finally got a low right in this city. Jeez, it's like pulling teeth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Would be cool to get a perfect today, but now I'm not feeling good about the prospects of mid teens winds anymore ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 82 now so I think 85-86 should be doable for the high. The northerly winds so far haven't been very strong so I'm starting to feel better about that, but also have to get through the sea breeze later. The HRRR shows a period of 9-10 knot winds with the sea breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 86 now... Could rise another degree or two easily. Downsloping doing its thing. If only I had put 50 for last night and not the night before :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Wow at 86 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Now to watch the winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 86 now... Could rise another degree or two easily. Downsloping doing its thing. If only I had put 50 for last night and not the night before :-/ I wish I kept my 87 or 88 that I had earlier yesterday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Max was 87...nice. 10 knots sustained right now. Winds are slackening at the sites to their west so I'm hoping they don't get above 12 knots sustained. I really feel it's about 50/50 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Climo says 12 knots as of 5PM local! Winds are coming down now so assuming that holds I will win a trophy by the skin on my teeth (as is it's a tie for the second spot among cat 3 forecasters) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Climo says 12 knots as of 5PM local! Winds are coming down now so assuming that holds I will win a trophy by the skin on my teeth (as is it's a tie for the second spot among cat 3 forecasters) Hoping it stays 12kts for your sake... if so, congrats! I had a great last day, but it wasn't enough to make up the ground I lost with the low forecasts this week. I'll finish the city 41st nationally, and 12th among cat 2's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Climo says 12 knots as of 5PM local! Winds are coming down now so assuming that holds I will win a trophy by the skin on my teeth (as is it's a tie for the second spot among cat 3 forecasters) Congrats on the trophy. You are having an amazing year. #2 overall! Somehow I went from +5 to -3 this week, I still don't feel like I understand the weather there but at least I eventually could guess what it was going to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Somehow ended up in Top 100 despite 14 error points on the low! Pretty much 3 guys ahead of me for the year did even better than my -4.5 so it's frustrating I left some points here :\ Oh well... onto Alabama with that crazy week of rain coming up! Congrats on another trophy, OHweather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Thanks guys! Looks like the 12 knots held. I'm hoping to make a move on #1 overall, but that'll be hard to do. We will see how MGM goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Came in 5th at Valpo despite not actually doing any real forecasting any day and literally guidancing the last day. Spring Break ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Oh man KMGM is looking like a nightmare to forecast for this week (convective precip galore). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 83/57/17/0... really not confident at all with the forecast, especially the low. My reasoning for the 57F is that the southerlies will get there and kick up the dew points, but that they'll be a little slower than some models have, and so dew points won't have time to respond quickly enough for the low to be closer to 59/60. But I could see scenarios on either side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 85/60/17/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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