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WxChallenge 2014-2015


Jurg

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A personal weather station right next to airport property that I've been watching has clocked winds as high as 15MPH gusting to 17MPH...although it's possible they're a little higher than the airport (per Wunderground they're 20 feet higher than the ASOS, but not sure if that's accurate). The station has also been sitting at 72-73 for the last couple of hours and LGB has been sitting at 71, so I'm guessing they probably snagged 72. We will see.

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Went 78/46/12/0

 

Thought there was some potential to get as warm as 80, but I'm sitting on a trophy now so didn't feel like risking it. I really don't know on the low after this morning, but MOS did a good job of showing upper 40's for this morning and was cooler for tonight...in addition, dews are much lower and winds will probably go calm sooner...so we should get a little cooler than last night.

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Went 78/46/12/0

 

Thought there was some potential to get as warm as 80, but I'm sitting on a trophy now so didn't feel like risking it. I really don't know on the low after this morning, but MOS did a good job of showing upper 40's for this morning and was cooler for tonight...in addition, dews are much lower and winds will probably go calm sooner...so we should get a little cooler than last night.

 

I'm in the opposite position--I am a bit far behind trophy range and needed to take a chance. Hence the 80F (which I think is entirely possible tomorrow... I like 78-80 as a range).

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78/49/11/0

 

Finally clawed back to consensus today but I have no idea how to forecast for KLGB. Didn't see any reason why the low would be colder than today with similar conditions, bumped up a degree for light wind kicking in before sunrise. But like I said, I have no idea what I'm doing. 

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78/49/11/0

 

Finally clawed back to consensus today but I have no idea how to forecast for KLGB. Didn't see any reason why the low would be colder than today with similar conditions, bumped up a degree for light wind kicking in before sunrise. But like I said, I have no idea what I'm doing. 

 

I think dew points are a big factor, at least it's why I went lower tomorrow. The past two days, the low has been about 4F above the dew point. I expect the dp to be around 40-42 tomorrow morning.

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I think dew points are a big factor, at least it's why I went lower tomorrow. The past two days, the low has been about 4F above the dew point. I expect the dp to be around 40-42 tomorrow morning.

 

But the dewpoint goes up every evening when the onshore flow kicks in. I guess we'll see where things settle down in the next few hours, but I could see the Td ending up in the mid-upper 40's by midnight pacific time. Its already up to 45F now after being in the 20's a couple of hours ago. 

 

I took a huge risk on the low, especially considering my current rank. Tomorrow's forecast will be a trophy make or break for me.

 

79/50/11/0.00

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But the dewpoint goes up every evening when the onshore flow kicks in. I guess we'll see where things settle down in the next few hours, but I could see the Td ending up in the mid-upper 40's by midnight pacific time. Its already up to 45F now after being in the 20's a couple of hours ago. 

 

I took a huge risk on the low, especially considering my current rank. Tomorrow's forecast will be a trophy make or break for me.

 

79/50/11/0.00

 

Of course, but I expect it to go back down overnight. At least, that's what pretty much every model shows.

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I think the sea breeze and NE flow are battling it out. One takes over then dies down and then the other fires up. 

 

Could be. Dew point is the lowest it's been all day, though, so maybe it's just the city bouncing around as it has done on sunny days in the past.

 

EDIT: Then again, yesterday the dew point didn't respond to the sea breeze.

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