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WxChallenge 2014-2015


Jurg

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Looks like it's going to be 74/45/18/0 for Day 1. That wind caught me off guard, but I'll take it

 

I wish.

 

74/45/13/0... I think you're looking at the gust.

 

That's what my friend gave me. I just checked. He was looking at LAX. Yeah, it's 13. Sigh. I would've done awesome at 18 myself. Oh well. How'd you do day 1 Mallow?

 

We did end up managing 14kts in the end, which helped me out quite a bit.

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Right idea on the low but probably 2 too warm. 14 knots yesterday really helps me too, only a half point day.

I didn't find an instance where the low was 4 off the GFS on any type of marine taint mornings/days. Also I didn't find any overperforming highs compared to the NAM high on these types of days either. Potentially a bad bad day 2.

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I didn't find an instance where the low was 4 off the GFS on any type of marine taint mornings/days. Also I didn't find any overperforming highs compared to the NAM high on these types of days either. Potentially a bad bad day 2.

 

What was your threshold for a "marine taint" day?

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What was your threshold for a "marine taint" day?

I just looked at days this month, where winds were southerly and weak. The marine layer isn't what it's used to be so going years back in time won't do you any good. The so. cal marine layer has been on the decline. But I'll give you days I used for this month. 2/2/15, 2/4/15, 2/16/15, 2/17/15, and 2/20/15. 

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I just looked at days this month, where winds were southerly and weak. The marine layer isn't what it's used to be so going years back in time won't do you any good. The so. cal marine layer has been on the decline. But I'll give you days I used for this month. 2/2/15, 2/4/15, 2/16/15, 2/17/15, and 2/20/15. 

 

Thanks!

 

I think what happens today hinges largely on how entrenched these morning clouds are. If they break soon (by 9AM at the latest), most of the days on your list wouldn't be as good of analogs (with the possible exception of 2/2, though that had no morning clouds at all). If they hold on longer, I think most of those days could be good analogs, which would imply a lower high.

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Thanks!

 

I think what happens today hinges largely on how entrenched these morning clouds are. If they break soon (by 9AM at the latest), most of the days on your list wouldn't be as good of analogs (with the possible exception of 2/2, though that had no morning clouds at all). If they hold on longer, I think most of those days could be good analogs, which would imply a lower high.

Even if they don't hold on as long, you'll see a 1 degree over performer of the NAM high and USL nailing everything. Otherwise marine layer will strengthen the coming days. Today will be where it is at its weakest. 

Edit: Even the USL for 2/2/15 was only off by 1 so I could see 70F but most likely 67-69 should be the high range today.

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I didn't find an instance where the low was 4 off the GFS on any type of marine taint mornings/days. Also I didn't find any overperforming highs compared to the NAM high on these types of days either. Potentially a bad bad day 2.

The clouds have me concerned if they don't break. The winds look light for several hours so I don't think we'll get cooling off the water until 20z. But with the lack of down sloping and clouds that I didn't expect I'm worried it won't get above 70, which could effectively wash out most of my day 1.
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The clouds have me concerned if they don't break. The winds look light for several hours so I don't think we'll get cooling off the water until 20z. But with the lack of down sloping and clouds that I didn't expect I'm worried it won't get above 70, which could effectively wash out most of my day 1.

Always gotta pay attention to the marine layer. It can be a buzzkill.

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Even if they don't hold on as long, you'll see a 1 degree over performer of the NAM high and USL nailing everything. Otherwise marine layer will strengthen the coming days. Today will be where it is at its weakest. 

Edit: Even the USL for 2/2/15 was only off by 1 so I could see 70F but most likely 67-69 should be the high range today.

 

USL for KLGB for 2/2? ...

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