Mallow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 KBUR sits at 774' while KLGB sits at 56'. Okay, so 718 feet of downsloping then. >_< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looks like it's going to be 74/45/18/0 for Day 1. That wind caught me off guard, but I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looks like it's going to be 74/45/18/0 for Day 1. That wind caught me off guard, but I'll take it I wish. 74/45/13/0... I think you're looking at the gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I wish. 74/45/13/0... I think you're looking at the gust. That's what my friend gave me. I just checked. He was looking at LAX. Yeah, it's 13. Sigh. I would've done awesome at 18 myself. Oh well. How'd you do day 1 Mallow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 70/52/12/0 I don't really have a good handle on this city yet but I'm going with the assumption that tomorrow will more closely resemble the weather they had last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That's what my friend gave me. I just checked. He was looking at LAX. Yeah, it's 13. Sigh. I would've done awesome at 18 myself. Oh well. How'd you do day 1 Mallow? Okay. Would have been much better even with one more degree on the low (44F rather than 45F), but c'est la vie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Okay. Would have been much better even with one more degree on the low (44F rather than 45F), but c'est la vie. Yeah. I hate it when you're one degree or one knot away from being so much better. Still got plenty of time though. I did fairly well. The low tomorrow morning will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Went 71/48/9/0. *sigh* look like my 48 isn't happening with high dew point in 50s now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Went 71/48/9/0. *sigh* look like my 48 isn't happening with high dew point in 50s now.... Its 51/42 now... Have some hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Its 51/42 now... Have some hope! Wow, I guess that 48 might work out after all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It definitely got to 50F, just don't know if it got lower than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looks like it's going to be 74/45/18/0 for Day 1. That wind caught me off guard, but I'll take it I wish. 74/45/13/0... I think you're looking at the gust. That's what my friend gave me. I just checked. He was looking at LAX. Yeah, it's 13. Sigh. I would've done awesome at 18 myself. Oh well. How'd you do day 1 Mallow? We did end up managing 14kts in the end, which helped me out quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Right idea on the low but probably 2 too warm. 14 knots yesterday really helps me too, only a half point day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Right idea on the low but probably 2 too warm. 14 knots yesterday really helps me too, only a half point day. I didn't find an instance where the low was 4 off the GFS on any type of marine taint mornings/days. Also I didn't find any overperforming highs compared to the NAM high on these types of days either. Potentially a bad bad day 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I didn't find an instance where the low was 4 off the GFS on any type of marine taint mornings/days. Also I didn't find any overperforming highs compared to the NAM high on these types of days either. Potentially a bad bad day 2. What was your threshold for a "marine taint" day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 What was your threshold for a "marine taint" day? I just looked at days this month, where winds were southerly and weak. The marine layer isn't what it's used to be so going years back in time won't do you any good. The so. cal marine layer has been on the decline. But I'll give you days I used for this month. 2/2/15, 2/4/15, 2/16/15, 2/17/15, and 2/20/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I just looked at days this month, where winds were southerly and weak. The marine layer isn't what it's used to be so going years back in time won't do you any good. The so. cal marine layer has been on the decline. But I'll give you days I used for this month. 2/2/15, 2/4/15, 2/16/15, 2/17/15, and 2/20/15. Thanks! I think what happens today hinges largely on how entrenched these morning clouds are. If they break soon (by 9AM at the latest), most of the days on your list wouldn't be as good of analogs (with the possible exception of 2/2, though that had no morning clouds at all). If they hold on longer, I think most of those days could be good analogs, which would imply a lower high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Thanks! I think what happens today hinges largely on how entrenched these morning clouds are. If they break soon (by 9AM at the latest), most of the days on your list wouldn't be as good of analogs (with the possible exception of 2/2, though that had no morning clouds at all). If they hold on longer, I think most of those days could be good analogs, which would imply a lower high. Even if they don't hold on as long, you'll see a 1 degree over performer of the NAM high and USL nailing everything. Otherwise marine layer will strengthen the coming days. Today will be where it is at its weakest. Edit: Even the USL for 2/2/15 was only off by 1 so I could see 70F but most likely 67-69 should be the high range today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I didn't find an instance where the low was 4 off the GFS on any type of marine taint mornings/days. Also I didn't find any overperforming highs compared to the NAM high on these types of days either. Potentially a bad bad day 2.The clouds have me concerned if they don't break. The winds look light for several hours so I don't think we'll get cooling off the water until 20z. But with the lack of down sloping and clouds that I didn't expect I'm worried it won't get above 70, which could effectively wash out most of my day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The clouds have me concerned if they don't break. The winds look light for several hours so I don't think we'll get cooling off the water until 20z. But with the lack of down sloping and clouds that I didn't expect I'm worried it won't get above 70, which could effectively wash out most of my day 1. Always gotta pay attention to the marine layer. It can be a buzzkill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Even if they don't hold on as long, you'll see a 1 degree over performer of the NAM high and USL nailing everything. Otherwise marine layer will strengthen the coming days. Today will be where it is at its weakest. Edit: Even the USL for 2/2/15 was only off by 1 so I could see 70F but most likely 67-69 should be the high range today. USL for KLGB for 2/2? ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 USL for KLGB for 2/2? ... You're going to have to expand on that one... I've never seen the USL available before day 1 of any given city. If the USL is available for earlier days, that would be a total game changer for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Always gotta pay attention to the marine layer. It can be a buzzkill.Definitely. I figured more marine influence and no downslope would result in a cooler high than day 1 but probably should've taken more than 2 degrees off. But as long as they keep rising ill hold on to some hope haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 USL for KLGB for 2/2? ... 12z was 72 and 22z was 73 and got up to 74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 12z was 72 and 22z was 73 and got up to 74. You're going to have to expand on that one... I've never seen the USL available before day 1 of any given city. If the USL is available for earlier days, that would be a total game changer for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 http://www.microclimates.org/wxchallenge/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 http://www.microclimates.org/wxchallenge/ That's... awesome! Thanks for the info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Already 61F ugh. Well IDK whats going to happen the rest of the day I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Already 61F ugh. Well IDK whats going to happen the rest of the day I guess. It's still quite possible the marine layer kicks in, just earlier than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 So far its 70/50 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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