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WxChallenge 2014-2015


Jurg

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Agreed on winds and temperatures. And on precip, I am beginning to think 0.1 or even as high as 0.25 are not out of reach, based on some of the recent guidance...

 

It sucks, because I discussed with my class last night the possibility that there could be a lot more precip than most of the models had (the Canadian last night had a bullseye of over 0.25", but that was it)... because models tend to be too slow/too far south with the northern end of the precip shield in these kinds of storms. But none of us had the guts to pull the trigger.

 

Agreed... I went wimpy with a 0.01" but the end period HRRR now has something between 0.1" to 0.25" by 0600 UTC... and even the HRRR tends to be slow with precip progression.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_refl_wxch.php

 

fS3JbfE.png

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Well actually it looks like our high forecasts might be doomed as the low clouds have moved in and locations upstream (further south) are actually colder than KSPI... whoops. 

 

Glad we're done with this city. Despite top 100 ranking, this had been a frustrating city 

:P

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I'm watching the Springfield obs because that precip is coming my way in SE Ohio in a few hours...getting pumped.

 

As for WxChallenge, this may have been the most boneheaded forecast I've ever made. I've had bad ones but this one was just silly. Went from a solid -2 to -3 type city to finishing right at consensus in one day :lol:

 

My overall rank will improve to 8 after being in the 20's after Phoenix so there's that. Other than winds it'll probably be hard to beat consensus in Long Beach (which is a terrible spot to pick in the middle of an interesting time of year in almost every other part of the country). I'll enjoy my snow over the next 18-24 hours and then think about California weather haha

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One of the worst forecast I've done in WxChallenge, but at least I'm still 3rd for Category 4 folks. The big issue is the fact top two guys (Scott8 and WxEric) had a really good city the past two weeks. Scott8, however, is one bad city from allowing me to take second with a shot at taking first from WxEric but that'll be tough with WxEric doing well here and Long Beach likely one of those "beat consensus and it's a good forecasting city" like Phoenix was. I really need a good forecasting city while Scott and Eric both do poorly or I'm likely not climbing any farther than 3rd among Category 4 folks.

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Almost all of the days I had looked at in previous Februaries where a rainy day was followed by a clear night and following day, the low temperature was at or below the lowest MOS guidance. Of course, I wouldn't be surprised if that doesn't work out tomorrow, but that's why I went low with the low.

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A bit disappointed that they didn't manage to find an extra degree or two between hours, but I can still salvage a pretty good day if the high and wind cooperate.

I need 75 and 17 to beat you on day 1 LOL. Good chance at it I think as we are already at 69F and winds 9 knots.

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Went 72/52/14/0

 

With some high clouds tonight and a warmer evening start, I see them struggling to get to 50 or colder. They only dropped so fast last night under ideal radiating cooling conditions and I expect a slightly slower drop tonight, which when combined with warmer temps to start should yield a low considerably warmer than today. Area around airport also looks extremely urbanized which should guard against a sharp drop if they do stay clear for periods of time. We'll see. Pressure gradient looks weaker tomorrow so marine influence should move in sooner and keep things a little cooler. Am uncertain on winds. SW winds overperformed late yesterday. No idea what they did today wind wise with no climo, although the HRRR appeared to show the strongest winds just after 0z tonight so we'll see how today's winds performed.

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Another tricky day tomorrow... feel uncomfortable about my high, but I think the light onshore flow might keep things from getting too warm (high res NMM/ARW and 4km NAM were in the 64-66F range with onshore flow which could put a damper on the high). We'll see. It definitely looks like most people saw how warm it got today and are assuming MOS will have a cold bias despite the fact the low-level flow is onshore tomorrow rather than offshore.

 

68/49/11/0.00

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I thought about going really cold for highs and warm for lows but didn't change my afternoon forecast numbers in time. Left with 71/48/10/0. Winds will definitely suggest a marine influence but I'm not sure how strong of an influence it will be. As for low... wasn't confident on anything. HRRR drops LGB into the upper 40s for a time and I think high clouds will erode quicker then expected.

 

At least I ended up better than consensus today. 

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More marine influence is why I dropped it 2F from today, though perhaps that wasn't enough. Doubt downslope had much impact today... I think it's being overstated.

 

Perhaps, but how do you then explain the significant dewpoint depression today? Note how dewpoint is nicely correlated with wind direction (dewpoint spiked +10F when the direction shifted out of the south). While I'd hardly say this was anything on the order of a Santa Ana wind, the 10-12 kt northwesterly flow prior to the arrival of the marine layer certainly aided mixing. 

 

9VdxaPi.png

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Perhaps, but how do you then explain the significant dewpoint depression today? Note how dewpoint is nicely correlated with wind direction (dewpoint spiked +10F when the direction shifted out of the south). While I'd hardly say this was anything on the order of a Santa Ana wind, the 10-12 kt northwesterly flow prior to the arrival of the marine layer certainly aided mixing. 

 

9VdxaPi.png

 

Was probably gap flow through Burbank and Glendale. Dew points were much lower there all day. Possibly some downslope effects there, I suppose, but even though the winds in Burbank were strong out of the north, temperatures were actually cooler at KBUR than in KLGB.

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Was probably gap flow through Burbank and Glendale. Dew points were much lower there all day. Possibly some downslope effects there, I suppose, but even though the winds in Burbank were strong out of the north, temperatures were actually cooler at KBUR than in KLGB.

KBUR sits at 774' while KLGB sits at 56'. 

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