phil882 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Agreed on winds and temperatures. And on precip, I am beginning to think 0.1 or even as high as 0.25 are not out of reach, based on some of the recent guidance... It sucks, because I discussed with my class last night the possibility that there could be a lot more precip than most of the models had (the Canadian last night had a bullseye of over 0.25", but that was it)... because models tend to be too slow/too far south with the northern end of the precip shield in these kinds of storms. But none of us had the guts to pull the trigger. Agreed... I went wimpy with a 0.01" but the end period HRRR now has something between 0.1" to 0.25" by 0600 UTC... and even the HRRR tends to be slow with precip progression. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_refl_wxch.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I just need the high to get to 31, the precip isn't going to affect the scoring much but the temp can me a huge boost to -3.5 or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well actually it looks like our high forecasts might be doomed as the low clouds have moved in and locations upstream (further south) are actually colder than KSPI... whoops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well actually it looks like our high forecasts might be doomed as the low clouds have moved in and locations upstream (further south) are actually colder than KSPI... whoops. Glad we're done with this city. Despite top 100 ranking, this had been a frustrating city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Temp headed down, I just hope they can manage something in the upper 20s now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Lol and here is the heavy snow... 0.16 precip and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I'm watching the Springfield obs because that precip is coming my way in SE Ohio in a few hours...getting pumped. As for WxChallenge, this may have been the most boneheaded forecast I've ever made. I've had bad ones but this one was just silly. Went from a solid -2 to -3 type city to finishing right at consensus in one day My overall rank will improve to 8 after being in the 20's after Phoenix so there's that. Other than winds it'll probably be hard to beat consensus in Long Beach (which is a terrible spot to pick in the middle of an interesting time of year in almost every other part of the country). I'll enjoy my snow over the next 18-24 hours and then think about California weather haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 One of the worst forecast I've done in WxChallenge, but at least I'm still 3rd for Category 4 folks. The big issue is the fact top two guys (Scott8 and WxEric) had a really good city the past two weeks. Scott8, however, is one bad city from allowing me to take second with a shot at taking first from WxEric but that'll be tough with WxEric doing well here and Long Beach likely one of those "beat consensus and it's a good forecasting city" like Phoenix was. I really need a good forecasting city while Scott and Eric both do poorly or I'm likely not climbing any farther than 3rd among Category 4 folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 72/43/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 75/50/17/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Thinking we get some downslope tomorrow... and I'm wondering if light northerly flow might keep them up a little higher than MOS was suggesting. 74/47/14/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Only thing I can get ahead of climo on is the max temp. 71/48/12/0 Didn't want to take an early risk and climb uphill all week so I'll take my near consensus forecast and see how it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Almost all of the days I had looked at in previous Februaries where a rainy day was followed by a clear night and following day, the low temperature was at or below the lowest MOS guidance. Of course, I wouldn't be surprised if that doesn't work out tomorrow, but that's why I went low with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 71/46/14/0 Trying to not risk it this early, but I'm little surprised consensus is at 48 rather than 47... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 74/45/15/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 A bit disappointed that they didn't manage to find an extra degree or two between hours, but I can still salvage a pretty good day if the high and wind cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 A bit disappointed that they didn't manage to find an extra degree or two between hours, but I can still salvage a pretty good day if the high and wind cooperate. I need 75 and 17 to beat you on day 1 LOL. Good chance at it I think as we are already at 69F and winds 9 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I need 75 and 17 to beat you on day 1 LOL. Good chance at it I think as we are already at 69F and winds 9 knots. Up to 71 now, but they probably only have another 1-2 hours of warming before the marine layer attempts to come in. Looks like another 2-3 degrees potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Marine layer just kicked in, what a buzzkill. Hopefully an intra hour surprise happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Marine layer just kicked in, what a buzzkill. Hopefully an intra hour surprise happened. That's what I was hoping for this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 73F now...am worried winds won't be higher than 12-13 though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 72/50/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Went 72/52/14/0 With some high clouds tonight and a warmer evening start, I see them struggling to get to 50 or colder. They only dropped so fast last night under ideal radiating cooling conditions and I expect a slightly slower drop tonight, which when combined with warmer temps to start should yield a low considerably warmer than today. Area around airport also looks extremely urbanized which should guard against a sharp drop if they do stay clear for periods of time. We'll see. Pressure gradient looks weaker tomorrow so marine influence should move in sooner and keep things a little cooler. Am uncertain on winds. SW winds overperformed late yesterday. No idea what they did today wind wise with no climo, although the HRRR appeared to show the strongest winds just after 0z tonight so we'll see how today's winds performed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Another tricky day tomorrow... feel uncomfortable about my high, but I think the light onshore flow might keep things from getting too warm (high res NMM/ARW and 4km NAM were in the 64-66F range with onshore flow which could put a damper on the high). We'll see. It definitely looks like most people saw how warm it got today and are assuming MOS will have a cold bias despite the fact the low-level flow is onshore tomorrow rather than offshore. 68/49/11/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 72/50/10No downslope and more marine influence wont get your high.67/50/10/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 No downslope and more marine influence wont get your high. 67/50/10/0 More marine influence is why I dropped it 2F from today, though perhaps that wasn't enough. Doubt downslope had much impact today... I think it's being overstated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I thought about going really cold for highs and warm for lows but didn't change my afternoon forecast numbers in time. Left with 71/48/10/0. Winds will definitely suggest a marine influence but I'm not sure how strong of an influence it will be. As for low... wasn't confident on anything. HRRR drops LGB into the upper 40s for a time and I think high clouds will erode quicker then expected. At least I ended up better than consensus today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 More marine influence is why I dropped it 2F from today, though perhaps that wasn't enough. Doubt downslope had much impact today... I think it's being overstated. Perhaps, but how do you then explain the significant dewpoint depression today? Note how dewpoint is nicely correlated with wind direction (dewpoint spiked +10F when the direction shifted out of the south). While I'd hardly say this was anything on the order of a Santa Ana wind, the 10-12 kt northwesterly flow prior to the arrival of the marine layer certainly aided mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Perhaps, but how do you then explain the significant dewpoint depression today? Note how dewpoint is nicely correlated with wind direction (dewpoint spiked +10F when the direction shifted out of the south). While I'd hardly say this was anything on the order of a Santa Ana wind, the 10-12 kt northwesterly flow prior to the arrival of the marine layer certainly aided mixing. Was probably gap flow through Burbank and Glendale. Dew points were much lower there all day. Possibly some downslope effects there, I suppose, but even though the winds in Burbank were strong out of the north, temperatures were actually cooler at KBUR than in KLGB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Was probably gap flow through Burbank and Glendale. Dew points were much lower there all day. Possibly some downslope effects there, I suppose, but even though the winds in Burbank were strong out of the north, temperatures were actually cooler at KBUR than in KLGB. KBUR sits at 774' while KLGB sits at 56'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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