H2Otown_WX Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 19/12/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 22/10/30. Still trying to salvage my 23 min. for today's forecast but wanted to adjust down at least a degree. Winds will certainly try to keep temperatures in check and I was split between 10 and 11. As far as winds go... I figured I'd try to make up a little ground on consensus and figured that was my best shot. We'll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Should I get nervous about not getting 25 knots from today and 29 knots tomorrow? Winds haven't been great for those who went high since mid-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yea im wondering why everyone went high on winds. Usl has been on the high side of them lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I just realized I did something beyond stupid on my part. I put 23 as a low for today's forecast and put 20 for a high tomorrow when 23 would be the high anyway. I literally cannot believe I did that. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yea im wondering why everyone went high on winds. Usl has been on the high side of them lately. I was hoping we'll get something like Day 1 when we got as high as 16 knots over USL's 12 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like people who went low on the low might be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 D2 low AND D3 high at 24? Oh, Springfield... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 25/11/23 so far today. Yesterday finished 38/24/22/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yesterday still has the wind listed as 19 knots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Went 20/8/29/0 High and low already too cold, I doubt they drop hard enough this evening to get into the single digits. The ob at 9z for the wind was sustained 23 knots gusting to 35, so I'm hoping they at least got something like 27 knots out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Temp dropped like a rock to 11F and wind came in like a lion. What luck I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Went 20/8/29/0 High and low already too cold, I doubt they drop hard enough this evening to get into the single digits. The ob at 9z for the wind was sustained 23 knots gusting to 35, so I'm hoping they at least got something like 27 knots out of that. 27 knots it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 A real battle of whits tonight on the low between the MOS/ILX/USL and every other piece of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 A real battle of whits tonight on the low between the MOS/ILX/USL and every other piece of guidance. Yeah no kidding. Chance to make up points for those of us who have been stinking it up as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 34/12/14/0If I flop on the low, I'm toast. I guess I'm just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 35/14/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 34/14/14/0 MOS is already few degrees too cold and lot of clouds are moving into KSPI tonight. Plus, pretty much USL/NWS/MOS are on their own while RAP/HRRR/GFS/Euro/4kmNAM are all warm. I also trust Iowa State's meteogram and they don't fall below 14 except for two outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 36/14/15/0. I'm very confident in the high and wind. Look to February 3rd to see a proxy on model biases for tomorrow and also used hysplit to confirm my idea of 35 or better tomorrow during the afternoon. Hypslit method was giving me 36 and 37 using 18z temperature points from the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 And I already regret dropping my low 1 degree at 5:56... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 36/14/15/0 Taking a risk on the low. I think they'll see high clouds all night and MOS is already 4 degrees too cold at 0z. Euro actually doesn't appear to get them below 15. Winds will potentially turn southerly late at night too, but they will be pretty calm through a good chunk of the night with a surface high moving right over wind so if the clouds to clear for a time they could drop. So it's a risk, although it's also only 2F warmer than consensus so I guess not a huge risk. Actually my high is a bigger risk, but with mixing heights to above 900mb and 925mb temps 7-8C warmer than this afternoon I think my 36 is possible, especially if they can see some clearing in the high clouds after 18z with a decent southwesterly breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 36/14/15/0 Taking a risk on the low. I think they'll see high clouds all night and MOS is already 4 degrees too cold at 0z. Euro actually doesn't appear to get them below 15. Winds will potentially turn southerly late at night too, but they will be pretty calm through a good chunk of the night with a surface high moving right over wind so if the clouds to clear for a time they could drop. So it's a risk, although it's also only 2F warmer than consensus so I guess not a huge risk. Actually my high is a bigger risk, but with mixing heights to above 900mb and 925mb temps 7-8C warmer than this afternoon I think my 36 is possible, especially if they can see some clearing in the high clouds after 18z with a decent southwesterly breeze. Not a risk when I'm going with the same numbers lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 36/14/15/0. I'm very confident in the high and wind. Look to February 3rd to see a proxy on model biases for tomorrow and also used hysplit to confirm my idea of 35 or better tomorrow during the afternoon. Hypslit method was giving me 36 and 37 using 18z temperature points from the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma Panhandle. Oh snap The other few times we've had identical forecasts I don't think it went great, but I like that we have similar ideas for tomorrow as your highs especially have been better than mine for this city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Oh snap The other few times we've had identical forecasts I don't think it went great, but I like that we have similar ideas for tomorrow as your highs especially have been better than mine for this city. Yea you being exactly the same and Phil being wicked cold on temps scare me for sure, but this is the first day I feel the USL could be too cold for tomorrow. Edit: I would love to hear Phil's opinion on temps tomorrow since he did go colder than most of us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 39/22/19/0.04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 39/22/19/0.04 Did you get climoed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 35/11/14/0 KSPI is heading toward drop territory if this forecast doesn't turn things around. Hoping for a quick drop to 11 around 06-09 Z before the temp flattens out or starts rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Temp did fine until winds turned south, and then it plummeted??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Did you get climoed? ....Mayyyybe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 35/11/14/0 KSPI is heading toward drop territory if this forecast doesn't turn things around. Hoping for a quick drop to 11 around 06-09 Z before the temp flattens out or starts rising. You nailed the low, and I think the warmer highs and somewhat stronger winds could well work out so you could be in decent shape for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.