Max Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 37/26/12/0 are the numbers in climo. Wish I kept my lower high of 38F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Not a good day for me. My first impression was warm-low cold-high, but I convinced myself otherwise. Forecasting is hard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Looks like another dandy start to this city. Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Not a good day for me. My first impression was warm-low cold-high, but I convinced myself otherwise. Forecasting is hard! Can't be in the top 50 every city. Only my professor back at LSC from my college days can . He is just killing it this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The winds tomorrow and Thursday could be a nice play to make some points up. Winds and low made up for my poor high temp forecast so I'll break even with consensus for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The winds tomorrow and Thursday could be a nice play to make some points up. Winds and low made up for my poor high temp forecast so I'll break even with consensus for today.Yeah. This city will have its fair share of chances for people to make up ground. I hate getting off a to a rocky start regardless. That's forecasting for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yeah. This city will have its fair share of chances for people to make up ground. I hate getting off a to a rocky start regardless. That's forecasting for you Haha yep. I'm a little steamed at myself for the high. I had trouble getting a high warmer than 38 using various methods, but for some reason figured sun and no snow and a SSE wind would overcome it. Whoops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Haha yep. I'm a little steamed at myself for the high. I had trouble getting a high warmer than 38 using various methods, but for some reason figured sun and no snow and a SSE wind would overcome it. WhoopsThat was my thought process as well. I butchered the low because the Obs were screaming it's going to clear looking at the satellite and seeing the clearing moving quickly from the north. It just stopped cold about 40 miles or so north of SPI and stayed overcast all night. Bummer. The AFD mentioned that could happen. I should've went with a little more on the error avoidance play and went 24 like had the first time I submitted. What can you do right? Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If I get 38, I'll be 9th in nation. However, it appears 37 will be the high so I'll be in Top 60. The big question for tomorrow IMO is the wind and I'm not sure where to start, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 High was the toughest call for me tomorrow. 40/21/24/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 39/22/25/0 agreed ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Went 38/20/27/0 For the high, 2m air parcels around 18z tomorrow will either be coming from near St. Louis this afternoon per the NAM or from northern SD per the GFS where they got into the upper 30's at a higher elevation. Low clouds should move in tomorrow so I didn't want to go too bullish on the high, but went a little warmer than most models. I could see 40 but wasn't sure, so stayed a little lower. For the low, took an average of the models. Parcels at 2m on the NAM at 6z tomorrow night came from just north of ND at 500m above ground level there at 21z today, which when warmed adiabatically to 2m at SPI gave a temp of about 19F at 6z. Wanted to lower my low to 18 or 19 but missed the deadline. Consensus is 21 so I hope I'm at least on the right side of that. For winds, with BL average winds on the GFS of near 30 knots and on the NAM of around 25 knots by 6z tomorrow evening in a CAA regime (with the Euro looking a bit stronger like the GFS), I think they should snag 25-30 knots for the wind. The best potential for 30 knots appeared to be just after 6z so didn't go quite that high. We'll see. Big play is the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 39/22/22/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 38/21/25/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 39/18/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 35/19/24/0 Cloud cover combined with the front showing up by 18Z led me to go cold on the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 39/20/22/0.00 Agree that the high is tricky tomorrow... would not be surprised to see a high by even before 18z tomorrow, and temps slowly falling thereafter. Not sure how quickly the low clouds will move in, which will probably make all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Winds picked up at KSPI somewhat so final wind for Day 1 could be greater than 12 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Was 36F at 6z, so the high will be at least that for day 2. We'll see if the rebound again after sunrise or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Was 36F at 6z, so the high will be at least that for day 2. We'll see if the rebound again after sunrise or not.Already back to 36 at 14z. I went with 38/23/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looks like 38 will be the high. Down to 36 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graupel Flux Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 16kts on day 1? Holy...what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'll probably get killed on winds again today, but probably only 4 knots higher than mine maximum kill by the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 20/10/25/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 23/10/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 20/8/28/0 Meant to go 26 for the wind...oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 21/11/29 I'm betting on winds to keep the low warm at 11, but I'm glad it'll be at consensus because I won't get hurt badly if low goes wrong. I'm pleased to see consensus at 20 because I can't see temperature dropping quickly enough to get into teens before 6z due to winds. Of course, my winds explain itself although I'm nervous I went too high in reaction to Day 1 winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 22/13/24/0. I thought I was confident in the low, but seeing all these low numbers makes me feel uncomfortable now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 22/13/24/0. I thought I was confident in the low, but seeing all these low numbers makes me feel uncomfortable now lol I actually thought about going 12 as my low due to winds, but I didn't want to gamble this time around especially since you never know with backside 6z dripping to 10 or 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 21/10/29/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.