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WxChallenge 2014-2015

Jurg

By Jurg,
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

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Mallow

Mallow

Posted
Posted

28/16/18/.08

 

Forecasting for the climo wind, not the actual wind. Because I don't know what else to do.

 

FWIW, I'm going for a morning low, not a late 06z low. Wind direction tonight (WSW) should be favorable off of the UP for colder, tomorrow night not so much with WNW off of Lake Superior.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

FWIW, I'm going for a morning low, not a late 06z low. Wind direction tonight (WSW) should be favorable off of the UP for colder, tomorrow night not so much with WNW off of Lake Superior.

 

Agreed... the boundary layer has the best chance to decouple tonight between 9-12z before the WNW and lake effect snow bands ruin any chance of cooling off tomorrow evening. 

 

My #'s

 

27/18/19/0.03"

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted

This city is going to give a lot of us indigestion. You mean to tell me the highest wind was 13 knots when around the area it was 4-6 knots higher? I hope they update the high to at least 27 that showed up on the 00:51z Ob. This is crazy and annoying. Thanks for whoever sent emails today. This has to get sorted out. Idk how to forecast for here on the basis of not knowing any tendencies. Too inconsistent

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

This city is going to give a lot of us indigestion. You mean to tell me the highest wind was 13 knots when around the area it was 4-6 knots higher? I hope they update the high to at least 27 that showed up on the 00:51z Ob. This is crazy and annoying. Thanks for whoever sent emails today. This has to get sorted out. Idk how to forecast for here on the basis of not knowing any tendencies. Too inconsistent

 

Especially for those who can't afford to do badly with KANJ in order to keep up with leading forecasters for the year. 

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

How is the max temp in the METAR listed as only -3.3C (26F) when there was definitely a SPECI that had a temp of -3.0C (27F) at 0:51z? Do we just not count something that doesn't happen on an hourly ob here?

 

Edit: I guess since the SPECI didn't have the temperature listed to the nearest 10th of a degree, that -3C might have just been -3.3 rounded. Well, this sucks. Too bad ANJ couldn't rise this evening like all of the surrounding sites could.

 

KANJ 030555Z AUTO 20004KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR BKN021 OVC034 M03/M05 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP107 P0002 60003 T10331050 11033 21044 56027

 

KANJ 030051Z AUTO 14006KT 10SM BKN028 BKN041 OVC055 M03/M08 A2998 RMK AO2 SNE2359 P0000

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

Big ob coming up at 6z as the day 1 and day 2 highs may occur at the same time.

 

Still 26 per hourly obs, although we won't know if they sneaked up to 27+ until climo is out.

 

EDIT: I guess climo is out already before 6z obs. Wind is up to 15 knots.

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Max

Max

Posted
Posted

How is the max temp in the METAR listed as only -3.3C (26F) when there was definitely a SPECI that had a temp of -3.0C (27F) at 0:51z? Do we just not count something that doesn't happen on an hourly ob here?

Speci temps are rounded to the nearest whole C. That speci definitely didn't mean 27F. It's just a function of it rounding. So 26.6F may seem to suggest 27F, but it really doesn't.

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

Day 1 turned out nicely for me with the high sticking at 26. For day 2 I have 26/17/20/0.05. So hopefully the temp only goes down from here. The discussion on the winds/precip was very helpful--thanks to those who investigated the issue.

 

Winds issue appears to be fixed with that 0530z climo (at least I think it is) since it was updated to 15 knots, in which that value didn't show up in any of hourly obs in past 24 hours using NWS hourly obs page. Not good for my 18 knots tomorrow.

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

Winds issue appears to be fixed with that 0530z climo (at least I think it is) since it was updated to 15 knots, in which that value didn't show up in any of hourly obs in past 24 hours using NWS hourly obs page. Not good for my 18 knots tomorrow.

Well, that sort of helps for day 1, but yeah I have no clue on day 2 now. Hopefully I hear back from APX before the next forecast is due. If the wind in the climo is reported like every other city, it will almost certainly be higher than my 19 I'd think, but we'll see either way. I thought it would get warmer than 26 today so what do I know? :lol:

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

Well, that sort of helps for day 1, but yeah I have no clue on day 2 now. Hopefully I hear back from APX before the next forecast is due. If the wind in the climo is reported like every other city, it will almost certainly be higher than my 19 I'd think, but we'll see either way. I thought it would get warmer than 26 today so what do I know? :lol:

 

Yeah, that 15 knots should help out our Day 1. To be honest, I'm little more worry about my low of 18 than keeping winds down at 18 knots so we'll see how that work out. This city will be crazy, that's for sure!

 

 

Let us know when you hear back from APX or WxChallenge manager! Thanks for sending them the email  :thumbsup:

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

I should've gone warmer for the low...only down to 23F so far.

 

APX emailed me (and a couple others) back. They said that the AWIPS climate program had stopped working right after an overhaul to AWIPS2. The program is supposed to use the ASOS encoded daily summary message to populate the daily climate report, but for some reason stopped working when the upgrade occurred and started to just use the hourly obs. They said they'd have forecasters manually QC the data going into the climate reports until they get the issue resolved. So, hopefully the solves that. Unfortunately for my day 2 wind lol. But if we have the proper wind verification for the rest of the city, I'm ok with punting today (my winds are at consensus anyways, so it won't hurt my score when they come in with like 23 knots later).

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Max

Max

Posted
Posted

Yeah, one day of a "poor" wind forecast will be worth getting the numbers fixed.

Anyway, so much for the low low. It looks like it tried there after 12z, but by then there wasn't enough time for it to really drop.

Finally got one. Ill take 21.
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Max

Max

Posted
Posted

I should've gone warmer for the low...only down to 23F so far.

APX emailed me (and a couple others) back. They said that the AWIPS climate program had stopped working right after an overhaul to AWIPS2. The program is supposed to use the ASOS encoded daily summary message to populate the daily climate report, but for some reason stopped working when the upgrade occurred and started to just use the hourly obs. They said they'd have forecasters manually QC the data going into the climate reports until they get the issue resolved. So, hopefully the solves that. Unfortunately for my day 2 wind lol. But if we have the proper wind verification for the rest of the city, I'm ok with punting today (my winds are at consensus anyways, so it won't hurt my score when they come in with like 23 knots later).

But how does that explain the low climo? This was not just a one day issue.
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Mallow

Mallow

Posted
Posted

But how does that explain the low climo? This was not just a one day issue.

 

From what APX said, this has probably been happening from a little while, since whenever they upgraded AWIPS (I'm not sure when that exactly happened). We'll see what today's numbers come in as.

 

Yeah, if I remember correctly, at the Portland NWS, AWIPS was upgraded to AWIPS2 in the early 2000s. Which would imply that this has been an issue for over ten years now? To be fair, since outside of WxChallenge, nobody really tends to look at max wind numbers on a climo, especially at such a minor location as KANJ, it wouldn't surprise me if something like that flew under the radar for a long time.

 

Of course, I could definitely be remembering very wrong.

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

Yeah, if I remember correctly, at the Portland NWS, AWIPS was upgraded to AWIPS2 in the early 2000s. Which would imply that this has been an issue for over ten years now?

 

Of course, I could be remembering very wrong.

I doubt it's been ten years (at least I hope). I'm not sure how AWIPS works, but they're making it sound like there was a recent change to AWIPS2. Here's their exact wording about that:

 

"We recently had a major operational software overhaul to AWIPS2...it appears this is when the program stopped working properly."

APX is a good office, so I highly doubt they'd miss an issue for 10 years, but I can see how something relatively minor (in the grand scheme of things) can be missed for weeks or even a month or more.

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Mallow

Mallow

Posted
Posted

I doubt it's been ten years (at least I hope). I'm not sure how AWIPS works, but they're making it sound like there was a recent change to AWIPS2. Here's their exact wording about that:

 

APX is a good office, so I highly doubt they'd miss an issue for 10 years, but I can see how something relatively minor (in the grand scheme of things) can be missed for weeks or even a month or more.

 

Ah, looks like just an upgrade to AWIPS2 itself, then.

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