wi_fl_wx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Looks like they are headed for 72-73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Looks like they are headed for 72-73. Yup, especially with Central Texas completely clearing out for the next hour or two until some clouds come in from west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Yup, especially with Central Texas completely clearing out for the next hour or two until some clouds come in from west. We lose the low clouds but gain some mid and high level clouds lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Hopefully KABI sneak in 72 before it stop rising at some point. That temperature will do the job for me. We lose the low clouds but gain some mid and high level clouds lol Go figures, lol. EDIT: And that's done. Hopefully that 72 won it for OHweather too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Looks like 72/54/20 will be the numbers for day 8, which works for me! Not sure how I won the whole city, but it looks like I did. Congrats to WxBlue and anyone else who did well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The low killed me here otherwise I probaby would have been top 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 That blasted day 1... if I had only been smart enough to go with 66, I'd have finished the city at 20th place and would be sitting pretty in the overall standings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 We have really great forecasters on this forum! Nice work. I'll gladly take -4.45 after a slow start. On to the UP (after the break)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 We have really great forecasters on this forum! Nice work. I'll gladly take -4.45 after a slow start. On to the UP (after the break)! Yeah, I definently learned a lot from you guys! I was not that great my first semester (1.25+ behind national consensus), but I figured it out after I joined this forum shortly after my breakout performace in Atlanta. It's pretty sweet I won 2 first place trophies for Cat. 4 in the past several months, but I plan on improving and winning some more Next year, it'll get much tougher to win something so I got lot of studying/learning to do next 6 cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 We have really great forecasters on this forum! Nice work. I'll gladly take -4.45 after a slow start. On to the UP (after the break)! Yeah we do. This forum has been great for anyone who really likes wxchallenge. Lots of great insight on here from many. Enjoy Thanksgiving y'all. It's on to the snow belt after this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWOhioWX Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Managed -7.79 on this city and 15th overall. Definitely the best score I have ever had for a city. Congrats to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Had I not missed day 5 by 2 seconds I'd be first in category 4 with 38 error points based on what I had submitted for that day. I'm still pissed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Interesting location coming up this period......Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan... Basically in Canada and in the middle of three of the Great Lakes. Could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 FWIW an email I just received: Hi Everyone,I just received this email from the WxChallenge Manager. The advice is good. NWS ASOS rain gauges are heated to melt the snow, but if the snow is light, the snow ends up evaporated, rather than measured. Light snow is badly under measured.************** From WxChallenge ManagerLocal Managers,Please communicate with your forecasters that WxChallenge will continue to verify liquid equivalent for KANJ for winter weather. Also, this may be a good time to point out the limitations current gauges regarding light snowfall and the potential for under catch. We will do our best on our end to make sure the verification totals are consistent with the METAR and CLIMO values, however, light snowfall and frozen precipitation in general are a challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Some of you might find these new WxChallenge tools I've put together useful. These HRRR grids are 3x3 degrees centered over the WxChallenge location. Note that the sounding data may not update as often as the 2D variables, so check the time of the output forecast. KANJ Centered Grid for HRRR 2 Dimensional Variables KANJ HRRR Forecast Soundings Let me know what you think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 FWIW an email I just received: Some of you might find these new WxChallenge tools I've put together useful. These HRRR grids are 3x3 degrees centered over the WxChallenge location. Note that the sounding data may not update as often at the 2 dimensional variables, so check the time of the output forecast. KANJ Centered Grid for HRRR 2 Dimensional Variables KANJ HRRR Forecast Soundings Let me know what you think! Awesome stuff, y'all. Phil, I've noticed your HRRR project on Twitter and was wondering what you're up to! These pages are excellent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 27/8/18/0.06 Basically used USL/GFS MOS combo to start off the city temperature-wise because I didn't feel confident forecasting away from consensus. Winds look pretty KABI-like so I boosted up USL's max winds a little bit. I'm also counting on ASOS to struggle on picking up very fine snowflakes for 0.06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Tough forecast. 27/6/15/.06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 28/12/17/0.04. Only confident in high and wind. Low is a crap shoot with the low level clouds. Could be a Caribou type scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 26/8/18/0.07 Low is tricky. With the clouds I was afraid to go colder, but I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the 3-5 range. Without the lakes they would be -10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 28/8/18/.06 This will be a rough city. I can see it coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 28/6/18/0.05" The HRRR suggests they will clear out in the next couple of hours as the winds shift... further upstream in the UP of Michigan they are already in the single digits so we'll see... gonna be a close call before the WAA kicks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 28/6/18/0.05" The HRRR suggests they will clear out in the next couple of hours as the winds shift... further upstream in the UP of Michigan they are already in the single digits so we'll see... gonna be a close call before the WAA kicks in. Your HRRR sounding page looked like it showed low level clouds hanging around all night. Unless I read the sounding wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Your HRRR sounding page looked like it showed low level clouds hanging around all night. Unless I read the sounding wrong. The HRRR soundings do show some temporary clearing by 06z, but it does cloud up again. Note that -15 C in this profile is around +5 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The HRRR soundings do show some temporary clearing by 06z, but it does cloud up again. Note that -15 C in this profile is around +5 F Will be interesting to see how the soundings perform tonight as I do not know it's biases yet since this is the first day you've shown us what you have been working on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Will be interesting to see how the soundings perform tonight as I do not know it's biases yet since this is the first day you've shown us what you have been working on. Oh I'm in the dark as well since I only switched the grid over to KANJ this week and I'm not sure how well its been performing in comparison to actual observations. In the future I'll be putting together a verification page so you can see how well the hourly HRRR is performing in comparison to observations and other model guidance. Probably won't be able to get to that until winter break though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 27/10/18/0.03 Hoping that ANJ doesn't record precip well and that it stays warm tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Awesome stuff Phil, am looking forward to using those resources! For my forecast, 29/9/20/0.06" There will be a few hours of clearing between now and 6z or so as the winds shift, and I just can't trust temperatures to stay above 10 with a foot or more of snow on the ground and dew points hanging around in the upper single digits. If the clouds don't clear in that window before the winds align enough to get clouds off of Lakes Michigan/Huron, then they might stay above 10, but I wasn't confident enough in that so went with a middle of the road value. With water temps on the aforementioned lakes in the lower 40's and good southerly winds, they should start rising at some point after 6z. Even though it will be mainly cloudy tomorrow I've seemed to find in Cleveland that models will sometimes underdo heat-flux from the warmer lakes. With some hi-res models showing 28 or 29 for a high tomorrow afternoon or evening I went with that number. With clouds and a deep snow pack I don't think they can get much warmer though. Perhaps I'm too aggressive with the winds, but the NAM looked pretty well mixed up to just under 900mb where there will be 30-35 knot winds, so I don't think 20 knots is impossible. For precip the snow tomorrow evening should be wetter than what they saw today, and they did measure some precip today, so I'm hoping that a few hours of light to possibly moderate snow get them at least 0.05"...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 33/11/21/0.05 This was made off a couple crude 00z GFS maps last night and I forgot to change it during the day. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Already down to 10F eeek! Guess I whooped myself on day 1 with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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