weatherMA Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 64/34/22/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 65/37/20/0 looks like we all got the go warm memo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Some of you guys are making me nervous with the low. I actually thought about going 37, but I had hard time seeing anything lower than 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 66/41/21/0 I'm going all in on the low. I'm hoping the winds can keep it from tanking all the way to the morning hours. Sort of a gamble, but this is west-central Texas where gambling was prominent back in the day haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 64/34/21 Used the night of November 9th/10th as an analog. They lost 21 degrees that night with a strong SW flow and clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Already 43 as of 10 pm CST. Cold and consensus camps look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Already 43 as of 10 pm CST. Cold and consensus camps look good.The cooling has slowed to 1F an hour the last 3 hours, so we'll see. 40+ is probably toast but I'm not sure how much lower it goes as the winds should gradually pick up after 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 The cooling has slowed to 1F an hour the last 3 hours, so we'll see. 40+ is probably toast but I'm not sure how much lower it goes as the winds should gradually pick up after 6z. Yeah. They just leveled off at 43 this past hour and the winds picking up will slow the cooling a touch. I think I went a little too bullish with the 41, but 37-40 looks reasonable at this point. We shall see come morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 The cooling has slowed to 1F an hour the last 3 hours, so we'll see. 40+ is probably toast but I'm not sure how much lower it goes as the winds should gradually pick up after 6z. Yeah. They just leveled off at 43 this past hour and the winds picking up will slow the cooling a touch. I think I went a little too bullish with the 41, but 37-40 looks reasonable at this point. We shall see come morning Yeah, I spoke too soon there but this could be good for OHweather and me with that 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Got down to 39 last night (small chance that we go lower before 06z). We are also already up to 62 degrees... probably looking at somewhere between 65-68 for a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 65F already. Maybe higher still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 With that 65+ happening, I've taken the lead among Category 4 forecasters. If I get that 21-22 knots to work, I will have 3.0 points ahead 3rd place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 With that 65, I've taken the lead among Category 4 forecasters. If I get that 21-22 knots to work, I will have 3.0 points ahead 3rd place.67 now, congrats to no one on the high lol Hard to believe consensus was 61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Man I wish I had gotten day 1 right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 67 now, congrats to no one on the high lol Hard to believe consensus was 61. I'm pretty surprised too. I was expecting consensus to be 62-63, but I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Man I wish I had gotten day 1 right...me too. my day 2-6 error will be about the same as my day 1 error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 I would really like that climo for winds... EDIT: and it's 20 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 73/44/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 73/43/20/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 73/43/22/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 71/45/19/0 I thought about going a bit warmer for temps, but the winds will be light this evening and there will be some high clouds but they'll be thin tonight. For tomorrow, mixing looks close to today and temps at the top of the BL look close to or just a touch warmer than today, so with hopefully mostly clear or partly cloudy skies and a warmer start they can tack on a couple of degrees to today's temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 73/40/21, pretty good agreement with those here except for the low, hopefully it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 70/43/21. Maybe should've gone higher, but I' was nervous about going higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Add me to the warm crowd: 72/45/21/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 46 already ...only 3z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 46 already ...only 3z...It should level off soon as some high clouds move in and winds increase. The question is if it levels off and maybe looses a few more or levels off and jumps up a little. The only way anyone can pass me tomorrow for first is if that WioFin guy (Max) nails the high, low and wind, which I unfortunately think is possible lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 69/46/20 I feel so defeated at this place. Everything I think is going to happen doesn't. I didnt get to see the high this afternoon before making this forecast so I'm going to bust low on the high again. Mehhhhhh. On to Sault St. Marie, it should be way easier to forecast there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Low of 42/43 and/or high of 69/70 will be huge for me in maintaining my lead for Category 4 since basically nearly every top Cat. 4 guys went warm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 It should level off soon as some high clouds move in and winds increase. The question is if it levels off and maybe looses a few more or levels off and jumps up a little. The only way anyone can pass me tomorrow for first is if that WioFin guy (Max) nails the high, low and wind, which I unfortunately think is possible lol And you care why? Cat 0 over here. Even if you get 2nd overall you still technically win first place at the city lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 6z start at 48. That was quite the jump from 5z. Lets see where it goes from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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