WxBlue Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 52/25/17/0 Couldn't decide to stick with high res models/Euro or go with clear/light wind logic (like yesterday) so I went for happy medium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 ^ exactly my thoughts, why I went 24 I think its going to be pretty similar to last nights wx but slightly warmer. Think the usl/euro/sref is a bit too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWOhioWX Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 54/26/18/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 54/24/19/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 If I spell out the wind I figure it will come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 If I spell out the wind I figure it will come true. In that case I hope you're right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 53/26/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 54/25/18/0would be nice to get above consensus tmrw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 55/25/20/0 Wasn't sure on the low, I'm leaning towards it staying a bit warmer, but went with 25 because I wasn't sure. With good WAA, plenty of sun and deep enough mixing went warm for the high and higher for the winds. I'm not sure if it'll hit 55 but I figured there'd be a tight clustering near 52 and I want to be different lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 55/25/20/0 Wasn't sure on the low, I'm leaning towards it staying a bit warmer, but went with 25 because I wasn't sure. With good WAA, plenty of sun and deep enough mixing went warm for the high and higher for the winds. I'm not sure if it'll hit 55 but I figured there'd be a tight clustering near 52 and I want to be different lol Same exact forecast lol. That was essentially my reasoning. Wanted to go 54 but went 55 because I thought 53 would be consesus. I little surprised its below 52, don't see it being that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 55/22/23/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Clouds was the reason why I balked at anything lower than 25. However, warmer low camp will be in trouble if those clouds leave before dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 53/27/17/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Clouds was the reason why I balked at anything lower than 25. However, warmer low camp will be in trouble if those clouds leave before dawn. Clouds? I didn't see any (real) opportunity for clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 51/24/18/0 You guys have me nervous about the high now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Clouds? I didn't see any (real) opportunity for clouds. There were some mid-upper level clouds overnight that were well forecasted by the HRRR, but looks like they were able to undergo some decent radiational cooling the two hours overnight and they got to 24 in the hourly METARs (perhaps lower interhour) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 There were some mid-upper level clouds overnight that were well forecasted by the HRRR, but looks like they were able to undergo some decent radiational cooling the two hours overnight and they got to 24 in the hourly METARs (perhaps lower interhour) The clouds were mostly to their south, but I see your point. Looks like they were indeed close enough to stop the drop until they finally cleared out at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 The clouds were mostly to their south, but I see your point. Looks like they were indeed close enough to stop the drop until they finally cleared out at the last minute. Yeah, I saw clouds coming out from New Mexico on satellite so I figured to account for that instead of going 23 or 24. I wasn't believing 26+ after Sunday morning low of 21 even though high res were warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 yes nailed the low of 24, moved up to 6th overall so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 46F already and winds are sustained 18 knots gusting to 24 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Sunset was at 711 so they would have had about 20 more minutes to cool from 24. The 18z report metar will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 KABI 181752Z 21016KT 10SM CLR 10/M08 A3040 RMK AO2 SLP296 T01001078 10100 21044 58010-4.4C = 24.08F (according to Google)Phew... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Because of my near-consensus forecast, I'm not gaining or hurting from anything today other than little boost from wind. I should land around 2-3 points behind Category 4 leader after today, which should put me in good position to get trophy if I get three more good forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 It can stay right where it is right now........I have a perfect forecast if it stays the same.......yeah right. Wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Everything's bigger in Texas... including winds of KABI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 I don't know about you guys, but tomorrow look like a warmer version of today, so I went 65/38/21/0. I wanted to go higher to 66 and gun for that trophy, but I really don't want to get hurt badly if this forecast blow up in my face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 66/35/20/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 66/38/22/0 Am hoping the winds stay up tonight enough to keep it from getting colder, but it'll be clear so you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 65/38/22/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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