H2Otown_WX Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Thank you @jurg thats exactly what I was looking for. The SREF ensemble mean is right around 26, the lowest member is 24... I went with a SREF/Euro/USL blend. The MOS is clearly in another world with this one. So far I'm about 70 overall hopefully I can keep it up. 45/24/15/0 Ugh, blending model output statistics....what a boring way to forecast imo. Then again, if it brings the results, who am I to judge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Wow, the fact it rose back up to 29 gave me shot at my 25. Ugh, blending model output statistics....what a boring way to forecast imo. Then again, if it brings the results, who am I to judge? Yeah, sometimes I wish I got the knowledge and tools y'all have so I don't have to depends on models so much but that's what college is for I've learned a lot in past 3 semester than I ever had in my life and the differences between my first semester of WxChallenge and this semester (my third) is significant by about 5.00 standardized score. I never broke above consensus until Atlanta, which make my Category 4 win at Grand Folks more impressive. Actually, the reason I went with 25 is because I thought there was enough clouds on GOES to go with that temperature so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Wow, the fact it rose back up to 29 gave me shot at my 25. Yeah, sometimes I wish I got the knowledge and tools y'all have so I don't have to depends on models so much but that's what college is for I've learned a lot in past 3 semester than I ever had in my life and the differences between my first semester of WxChallenge and this semester (my third) is significant by about 5.00 standardized score. I never broke above consensus until Atlanta, which make my Category 4 win at Grand Folks more impressive. Actually, the reason I went with 25 is because I thought there was enough clouds on GOES to go with that temperature so we'll see. Oh believe me, I didn't learn nearly enough at my college, but I digress. That's awesome that you used analysis to make a bad ass forecast. That is what it's about...anyone can add up four numbers and divide by four. That just isn't forecasting in my opinion but in the case of this challenge you do whatever it takes so I get that...whatever is most effective. It's really good that you're doing this well this early in your college career. Have you even taken thermo/dynamics? What'd you end up ranked at the end of KCAR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Hmm, still 29... Oh believe me, I didn't learn nearly enough at my college, but I digress. That's awesome that you used analysis to make a bad ass forecast. That is what it's about...anyone can add up four numbers and divide by four. That just isn't forecasting in my opinion but in the case of this challenge you do whatever it takes so I get that...whatever is most effective. It's really good that you're doing this well this early in your college career. Have you even taken thermo/dynamics? What'd you end up ranked at the end of KCAR? I haven't touch on thermodynamics yet outside two weeks in high school, but I actually enjoyed it so we'll see I was 197th at end of KCAR, but that was after bad forecasting city. After 3 days of KABI, I'm ranked 124th and that's before fixing winds which should boost me few more spots. If my 25 verifies, I should enter Top 100 for year which is not bad for sophomore considering I didn't break above 500th until Atlanta. Forecasting using models and analyses is one thing, but there's little luck involved like what happened on Day 1 with that crazy 6z front. Had the front came in 20 minutes earlier, I would be 500th now instead of Top 100 for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Looks like 29 is the low this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Wow at those clouds. I guess I should've seen what some of you all saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Wow at those clouds. I guess I should've seen what some of you all saw. Yeah, I figured clouds were coming during the night and it appeared to be the case on satellite coming out of New Mexico so that gave me confidence in Euro, RAP, HRRR, and high-res models showing 25-28 degrees for the low. I'm just amazed it jumped back up to 29-30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Went with 44/24/17/0 Which feels like a crappy forecast so far.....but somehow I have still moved up on the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Went with 44/24/17/0 Which feels like a crappy forecast so far.....but somehow I have still moved up on the day.Could be worse...I went 46/19/15. Ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 If the day were to end now I'd move up to 5th overall. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 41 at 20z...keep it going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 41 at 20z...keep it going They just cleared out too... should see another 2-3 degree temperature gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 They just cleared out too... should see another 2-3 degree temperature gain. Hopefully 5F...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 43 at 21z Looks like we could squeak out a 44-45 today. Now the winds need to get going tonight and today might actually be a good forecast for some outside of the low debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Ugh, blending model output statistics....what a boring way to forecast imo. Then again, if it brings the results, who am I to judge? I see your point with that. The blend of the EC/SREF/USL was the end result, however. I did not just blindly use the models and divide by 3. I still did my "homework" and looked at h85 T, sat/IR, 3 day hx, which models were performing better, cloud cover, etc etc. After I was all done with that then I looked at which models I felt had a handle on the situation and went from there, if that makes any sense. I do agree with what your saying though, I'm always looking for ways to better my forecasting ability all the time and I hope I can get really good one day. I'm in 57th overall for this city which is way better than I did in the previous cities. I see that your from the dirty water, did you go to school at WCSU? I'm currently a senior there about to graduate in the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 44 currently! Hopefully we can squeeze out a intra-hour ob of 45 for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 The reason I went warm was because the models showed a layer of high RH air trapped beneath the inversion tonight, so I figured a deck of stratus would develop and keep them warmer. We'll see if they loose anymore, but they're overcast now and up to 28. With WAA developing tomorrow I am hoping the clouds clear by 18z. We'll see. great call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 I see your point with that. The blend of the EC/SREF/USL was the end result, however. I did not just blindly use the models and divide by 3. I still did my "homework" and looked at h85 T, sat/IR, 3 day hx, which models were performing better, cloud cover, etc etc. After I was all done with that then I looked at which models I felt had a handle on the situation and went from there, if that makes any sense. I do agree with what your saying though, I'm always looking for ways to better my forecasting ability all the time and I hope I can get really good one day. I'm in 57th overall for this city which is way better than I did in the previous cities. I see that your from the dirty water, did you go to school at WCSU? I'm currently a senior there about to graduate in the spring. Yeah I guess I'm just mad I'm doing poorly in this city. Yeah I went to WestConn unfortunately. Are you Dylan? You just came back this year right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Yeah I guess I'm just mad I'm doing poorly in this city. Yeah I went to WestConn unfortunately. Are you Dylan? You just came back this year right? Yes, that's correct. What's yours? And why do you say "unfortunately" lol? I came back this year to finish my degree and pursue a job in broadcast meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 great call!Thanks! The clouds cleared probably an hour later than I needed them to today, so I'll pretty much hold steady. If the winds verify at 16 knots I'd move to 15th for the city and reclaim the number 1 cumulative score...I don't expect to hold onto that all year but I'd like to try lol. If the winds end up at 15 or 17 I'll stay around 20th for ABI. Not a bad week but it took me until day 4 to be on the right side of consensus for the low (I nailed day 1's low but that was luck ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 1 1 OHUJMS ohu 3 - -5.73 -6.70 2.68 -5.65 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -6.027 1 1 Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Yes, that's correct. What's yours? And why do you say "unfortunately" lol? I came back this year to finish my degree and pursue a job in broadcast meteorology. I'm DXRWX5. Having a really crappy week... :/ I say unfortunately because it sucks. Good luck man, I've applied to like 40 stations and haven't heard back from anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 @H20town_WX your Matt Crepon right? I just watched one of you weather team broadcasts on YT. Anyways good luck on the wxchallenge you seem to be doing very well so far overall and pretty much kickin' butt in the school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 40 with light rain miserable out there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 54/25/16/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I missed the deadline by 2 seconds thanks to ****ty WiFi. There goes my 7th place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 51/24/sixteen/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 By 2 seconds that's awful! You didn't submit a forecast earlier? What about your phones 4G network couldn't use that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 51/24/sixteen/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 By 2 seconds that's awful! You didn't submit a forecast earlier? What about your phones 4G network couldn't use that?I thought I did on my laptop at 6... Came back from dinner to see it wasn't true and tried to use my phone but it didnt load the page in time. It sucks because I'm the #1 cat 4 forecaster right now. Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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