MillvilleWx Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I'm hoping that wind tonight can keep the temperatures up around 33. Any drop lower will hurt a lot of people. What an interesting start for this city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Nailed the high and the wind, but didn't see 33 coming for the low, especially this morning... and as MillvilleWx eluded to temps could fall even further near the end of the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Actually there was an intra hour 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Even though I'm way too warm with low, that high and wind guaranteed me Top 50 by end of day with ridiculous 10 error points ahead of consensus. Exactly what I need to rebound from last few days of Butte and whole period of Caribou. Hopefully the low doesn't get too crazy because that'll kill my confidence toward few models somewhat and make it confusing for the next seven days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 39/23/19/0 I had no confidence in any of models. USL was successful with 6z high, but it also whiffed the low and the secondary high. I want another day to see how models will play it out, but that drop from 43 to 40 in past hour tell me I should ditch high-res models for NWS/GFS/NAM since HRRR/RAP was like 43-45 at 00z. The high is USL/GFS/NWS combo and I just went with USL for winds. After a big lead over consensus, I've decided to take it easy with low-risk forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Went 37/23/20/0 Based on how the models were generally at least a few degrees warmer than this afternoon's temps, and given that the air at 2m at 21z tomorrow is coming from NW OK where they struggled to get out of the mid 30's today, and the air from near the top of the BL per HYSPLIT doesn't give anything warmer than the lower 30's when mixed down in the calculations I did, I didn't want to go as warm as the MAV/USL. The Euro did reasonable for this afternoon so went close to it tomorrow. 925mb temps will be about 4C cooler than today with similar mixing levels too, which gave me some confidence in the cooler high. I went closer to MOS for the lows tonight. There will be some wind but all it will be doing is advecting in the colder air from the north. With BL winds near or better than 20 knots for most of tomorrow I think 20+ knots as wind is also pretty doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 37/24/20 Really counting on some clouds tomorrow. Hoping for more than modeled. Euro's clouds today were pretty bad, and the HRRR is hinting at clouds further south than the other models would suggest. Hi-Res NAM has the clouds right on the border near KABI. And the NAM MOS liked clouds coming in early. But if it's clear for most of the afternoon, 40-42 is more likely. No confidence in the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 42/26/22/0 I made this forecast earlier and I'm regretting it. If they hit 42 tomorrow, I'll be shocked. This might be the worst forecast I've made in awhile. School work coming back to bite me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 38/26/21/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 37/24/20 Really counting on some clouds tomorrow. Hoping for more than modeled. Euro's clouds today were pretty bad, and the HRRR is hinting at clouds further south than the other models would suggest. Hi-Res NAM has the clouds right on the border near KABI. And the NAM MOS liked clouds coming in early. But if it's clear for most of the afternoon, 40-42 is more likely. No confidence in the low. I made my forecast earlier in the day since I had a ton to do the past 5 hours. I'm liking the lower high camp. I think 37-39 is more doable. I really need maximum sunshine to help out. Here's to hoping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 There was a fairly large spread in the ECMWF ensembles for tomorrow's high... between 35-43 deg F... the deterministic ECMWF has been cooling off quite a bit from run the run. About 48 hours ago it had a high in the mid-40's and now its down to 39 for a max temp tomorrow. Same trend as the max that occurred today, which was forecasted about 2-3 deg F too high from yesterday's 12z ECMWF run. I took the low side of the ensemble guidance as a result. Not sure how cold they are going to get tonight, as there is a wind surge that will hit them around 06z tonight that should keep the boundary layer pretty mixed. The MOS guidance doesn't seem to acknowledge this feature and has the boundary layer decoupling more than what will likely happen in reality. 38/26/20/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 40/26/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 38/23/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 37/23/22/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 39/25/18/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 38/22/16/0 As noted, the model trend has been toward colder temps. Might be tough to get that 22 tonight but with strong cold advection I think it's possible. I have 31 for today so it would be nice to get that extra degree before 06Z. Tomorrow the nose of the coldest air is pointed right at ABI. Even with sunshine 38 might be generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 32 will be the day 1 min with a day 1 wind of 32 knots. So I'll be 6th after day 1. I'm hoping for a cold low this morning, but if that doesn't work out then a cold high needs to. Either way something needs to be cold for me today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Jesus how bad is the MOS output, it is actually starting to scare me the level on inaccuracy with these models and that the NWS almost exclusively uses them for temperatures. 21 and 23 for the low? (GFS/NAM MOS). It looks like it will bottom out around 26 or 27 tonight with another win to chalk up for the USL. Look at this image I've attached, I took a screen shot last night of this because I new that these numbers would be WAY off and that their freeze warnings were too far south. Sure enough, at the 05Z obs numbers are 5-8oF higher than that and lows will end up being close to that I'm sure. At this rate I can only see temps dropping another degree or two at the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Welp, I guess high-res models were onto something last night with the low. Good analysis there for your low, Phil! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 My low looks like it's good. My high on the other hand is appalling. I can't believe I put 42. I can see 37 or 38 being the high. I need to string together some good forecasts haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I'm worried that the high will reach 40F. Those clear skies is something I don't care for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I'm worried that the high will reach 40F. Those clear skies is something I don't care for right now. The next hour observation will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 They got this thin ribbon of clouds over them. Hopefully that doesn't evacuate too soon or their temp will jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 They got this thin ribbon of clouds over them. Hopefully that doesn't evacuate too soon or their temp will jump. A whopping 35 degrees with the 1 pm observation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 They were 35 for 3 consecutive hourly obs, so I'm hoping the squeezed a 36 in there somewhere between hours. Depending on how quickly they fall off this evening they may get colder than 27 by 6z, although we'll see if the clouds move back overhead. Dew points could get below 0 by tomorrow morning in ABI. Bone dry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 34/26/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 32/24/18/0.00 had 23 for the low but had a last-minute change of heart and submitted at 00:00:00 UTC. I tried running HYSPLIT, and for 2 m got (roughly) Pratt, KS (back 24 hours from 21z tomorrow), and for 1530 m got (roughly) Guymon, OK. Both of those places were only in the low 20s today! So either I'm doing something wrong, or even 32 is too high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 34/23/20/0.00 Loving the fact consensus is 36, but I'm a little nervous about my 20 kts wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 34/21/20/0 Most worried about my low. They managed 37 today with a 21 knot wind. It's not impossible they get colder than 27 by 6z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 32/24/18/0.00 had 23 for the low but had a last-minute change of heart and submitted at 00:00:00 UTC. I tried running HYSPLIT, and for 2 m got (roughly) Pratt, KS (back 24 hours from 21z tomorrow), and for 1530 m got (roughly) Guymon, OK. Both of those places were only in the low 20s today! So either I'm doing something wrong, or even 32 is too high... Keep in mind that there will be some air mass modification by sensible heat flux of the land (if there is significant solar radiation tomorrow) so parcels will modify some. However, the low to mid-level clouds that are developing over KABI right now might stay entrenched for a while. The higher resolution guidance is unsure if they clear tomorrow afternoon. FWIW I was on the cold side tomorrow too. 34/21/20/0 Most worried about my low. They managed 37 today with a 21 knot wind. It's not impossible they get colder than 27 by 6z too. Well mixed + low to mid level clouds tonight suggest that the MOS guidance is once again too cold. The ECMWF guidence is particularly warm tonight (26F) and the HRRR was splitting the difference (22F)... In respect of the HRRR and ECMWF which performed best last night, I went in the low to mid 20's. 33/23/18/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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