H2Otown_WX Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 That thing is hauling ass. I think it may make it by like 0530-0540z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 That thing is hauling ass. I think it may make it by like 0530-0540z Yup. *sigh* EDIT: I was thinking 6z was 3 hours instead of 2 at this post. After looking again, I like my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graupel Flux Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 62/31/24/0 Someone stall that front! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 It's moving fast, but I still like the high camp better. The 0552z obs is not 2 hours away and we still have over 2 counties for the front to even get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 It's moving fast, but I still like the high camp better. The 0552z obs is not 2 hours away and we still have over 2 counties for the front to even get there. But is moving at the pace of > 1 county per hour... more like 1.2 to 1.3 counties per hour. Its probably going to arrive right at 06z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 But is moving at the pace of > 1 county per hour... more like 1.2 to 1.3 counties per hour. Its probably going to arrive right at 06z... But even so, that's not good enough for me. I need 0540z The first 10 minutes after the front passes, judging from a station to the north, we'll see a good 12F drop. After that the drop is slower. But since the 06z obs is actually taken at 0552z, even if the front gets there BEFORE 0600z, that could still be a win for the high camp. EDIT: Based on the past hour, I'd estimate an arrival at.... you guessed it... 0550-ish. >_< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Just did the radar calculation again, and I'm getting between 0545z and 0550z still for when the peak radar echoes reach KABI. Unfortunately for me, the stations to the north seem to drop about 10 minutes after that echo reaches them, so I still think the high camp wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Winds are easily hitting at least 28 knots sustained at airports in northern Texas right after front went through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 There's actually a temperature spike at many locations about 5 minutes AFTER the peak radar echoes go overhead. Then it takes another 10 minutes to drop 10 degrees or so. Thinking 65F is probably going to be the verification, at about 0555z, followed by a rapid cooling. Probably won't be 50F until 0615z, which is far too late for me. Oh well... even though my forecast was wrong and my city is all but shot already, I went in knowing it was going to be VERY close and that it would come down to 20 minutes or so either way. I'm glad I was "wrong for the right reason", if that makes sense. I thought the front would come in faster, and that it would be right there pretty much right around 06z, and that idea was right. Just a slight mistiming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Here is a fun station to watch updating in real time upstream of Abilene.... looks like FROPA hasn't occurred yet due to the wind direction and temps. http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KTXHAWLE1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Here is a fun station to watch updating in real time upstream of Abilene.... looks like FROPA hasn't occurred yet due to the wind direction and temps. http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KTXHAWLE1 Looks like front just crossed here a minute ago. Wind switch out of north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Here is a fun station to watch updating in real time upstream of Abilene.... looks like FROPA hasn't occurred yet due to the wind direction and temps. http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KTXHAWLE1 Dropped 4 degrees in 15 minutes. Nice! EDIT: Make that 5.5 degrees in 18 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The pucker factor on the first day! This is gonna be close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Nah, it's pretty much a given now... the high camp has it in the bag. The front will get there right at the 06z observation, but that's right when the temperature will "peak", too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Nah, it's pretty much a given now... the high camp has it in the bag. The front will get there right at the 06z observation, but that's right when the temperature will "peak", too. Pre-frontal warming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Pre-frontal warming? Yep. Which I figured would happen... just had my timing off by 30 minutes (or just over 3/4 of a county, if you prefer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Drama either way haha, but it looks like perfect timing by a small margin for the warm high folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KTXABILE41 Station in West Abilene just flipped to northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Yep. Which I figured would happen... just had my timing off by 30 minutes (or just over 3/4 of a county, if you prefer). I prefer miles not minutes :-P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Congrats to those who went high. Goodnight all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Looks like Fropa in northern Abilene around 1249 ET. Those that went low 60's will be happy tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 WU station next to airport flipped to north-northwest RIGHT at 552z. Not enough time to drop from 63-65, but dang... EDIT: It's 64 degrees for 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 64F on the 6z ob. It wouldn't completely shock me if they get to 65 if there is a slight warming right as the front goes through, but 64 or possibly 65 it is it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Ill take 65-66 even 67 if it can warm more than 1-2F in the 10 minutes before colder air really comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Ill take 65-66 even 67 if it can warm more than 1-2F in the 10 minutes before colder air really comes through. 66F on a 6:04z special ob! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 66F on a 6:04z special ob! Maybe even an intra speci 67-68 ;-) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I went with 63/34/28/0 for today........guess I was smart in not paying attention to the location of the front as the hours ticked by....would have been a wee bit stressful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Damn. Definitely did not go low enough on the low......or high enough on the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 33F now... Ok then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.